UFC Flyweight: Kavanagh vs Johnson Odds & Analysis

Lone’er Kavanagh vs Charles Johnson fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, August 23, 2025, fight fans will turn their eyes to the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, China, as UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang kicks off its Preliminary Card at 7:00 AM UTC (approximately 3:00 PM local time). Opening the flyweight slate on this global broadcast is a compelling matchup between two distinctly different career trajectories: the undefeated rising star Lone’er Kavanagh and the seasoned veteran Charles Johnson.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Walker vs Zhang
• Date: Saturday, August 23, 2025
• Venue: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, China
• Card Stage: Preliminary Card (starts at 7:00 AM UTC)
• Bout: Flyweight (125 lb) – 3 Rounds

The Favorite and the Underdog

In most sportsbooks, Lone’er Kavanagh enters as the clear favorite, carrying odds around –245 to –250 (American) across major bookmakers like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM. The 25-year-old English kickboxer has stormed through the UFC’s flyweight ranks in just two appearances, compiling a perfect 9-0-0 record as a professional. With a 50% significant strike accuracy, a flawless 100% takedown defense, and an average fight time of just under 11 minutes, Kavanagh’s explosive style and defensive prowess have quickly made him one of the division’s most intriguing prospects.

Opposite him stands the underdog, Charles Johnson, a 34-year-old American with a veteran record of 17-7-0. Johnson comes in at +180 to +200 underdog moneyline odds, reflecting both his experience and the skepticism surrounding his ability to halt Kavanagh’s momentum. With seven knockouts, three submissions, and four first-round finishes on his résumé, Johnson is no stranger to finishing fights. Yet his 50% strike accuracy and 21% takedown success rate pale beside Kavanagh’s offensive efficiency. On the mat, Johnson boasts a respectable 67% takedown defense, but he’ll need to bring more than resilience if he hopes to derail a fighter many see as the next big thing in the flyweight division.

Why This Matters

This stylistic clash—Kavanagh’s well-rounded, pressure-driven striking versus Johnson’s veteran savvy and power—promises fireworks from the opening bell. For Kavanagh, a finish or emphatic decision win would not only bolster his perfect record but catapult him closer to ranked opposition. For Johnson, a victory would represent a career-defining upset and a reclamation of relevance in the deepest weight class in UFC today.

As the clock ticks down to showtime in Shanghai, bettors and fight watchers alike will weigh the numbers, the styles, and the intangibles. Will the unbeaten wunderkind Lone’er Kavanagh continue his march toward flyweight stardom, or can the hardened Charles Johnson engineer one of the biggest upsets of the year? The answers await inside the Octagon on August 23.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Lone?er Kavanagh vs Charles Johnson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Lone’er Kavanagh

Age: 25
Country: England
Fighting Style: Kickboxer
Professional Record: 9-0-0 (Undefeated)
UFC Record: 2-0-0

Recent Form

• Mar. 22, 2025 vs Felipe Dos Santos – Win (Decision – Unanimous)
• Nov. 23, 2024 vs Jose Ochoa – Win (Decision – Unanimous)

While Kavanagh’s UFC résumé spans just two fights, his perfect 9-0 pro record underscores rapid development. The young Englishman has displayed crisp combinations, excellent footwork and a sturdy gas tank, controlling distance against opponents comfortable pressuring the pocket.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (100%): Kavanagh has denied every takedown attempt in UFC competition, forcing foes back to striking exchanges where he holds the advantage.
• Strike Accuracy (50%): Landing half of his significant strikes, he combines volume with precision—enough to tally consistent point margins or set up finishes.
• Well-Rounded Toolkit: As a kickboxer with developing wrestling, he transitions smoothly between high kicks, low kicks and punches, making for unpredictable offense.
• Pace and Cardio: An average fight time of 10:48 suggests he often dictates the tempo, outlasting opponents into the later rounds.

Weaknesses

• Limited UFC Sample Size: Two octagon appearances provide scant data against ranked flyweights; the step up in competition in China may expose untested gaps.
• Moderate Finishing Rate: Only 2 first-round finishes and 4 KOs in nine pro wins indicate he may struggle to break durable, high-level opponents early.

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Charles Johnson

Age: 34
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well-Rounded Striker (Boxer/Wrestler hybrid)
Professional Record: 17-7-0

Recent Form

• Mar. 1, 2025 vs Ramazan Temirov – Loss (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 19, 2024 vs Su Mudaerji – Win (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jul. 13, 2024 vs Joshua Van – Win (KO/TKO – Round 3, 0:20)
• May 11, 2024 vs Jake Hadley – Win (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 3, 2024 vs Azat Maksum – Win (Decision – Unanimous)

Johnson’s five-fight UFC tenure is marked by gritty performances and one explosive KO, but his unanimous-decision loss to Temirov last March highlighted difficulty closing distance on elite counter-strikers.

Strengths

• Finishing Experience: Seven knockouts and three submissions on his résumé reveal the power and grappling prowess to end fights early.
• Durability: With a 66% significant strike defense and 67% takedown defense, he routinely weathers offense and recovers swiftly.
• Veteran Savvy: At age 34, Johnson leverages ring IQ, feints and pacing to frustrate aggressive foes.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (21%): A low takedown-accuracy rate limits his ability to mix levels and force wrestle-heavy strategies.
• Strike Defense Gap: While respectable, his 58% strike defense lags behind Kavanagh’s 62%, suggesting vulnerability to volume punchers.
• Age & Pace: Averaging 13:38 per fight indicates longer battles that could sap his cardio versus younger, faster opponents.

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Matchup Outlook:
Kavanagh’s flawless takedown defense and sharp striking present a stiff test for Johnson’s veteran power. If Johnson cannot secure takedowns or snag a knockout opportunity, he may cede rounds on the feet. Conversely, should Johnson land his power shots early or capitalize on any grounding chances, he can derail Kavanagh’s ascent. This clash between youthful precision and seasoned grit sets the stage for a compelling flyweight showdown in Shanghai.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Here’s how the moneyline stacks up across major books:

• Lone’er Kavanagh (Favorite)
– FanDuel: –245
– DraftKings: –218
– BetMGM: –250

• Charles Johnson (Underdog)
– FanDuel: +186
– DraftKings: +180
– BetMGM: +200

As you can see, Lone’er Kavanagh is a solid favorite, with moneyline odds ranging from –218 to –250. Charles Johnson sits firmly on the underdog side, anywhere from +180 to +200.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Underdog bettors should target BetMGM for +200 on Charles Johnson, maximizing potential returns.
• Favorite backers should look at DraftKings’ –218 line on Lone’er Kavanagh, which offers the smallest juice on the favorite side.

Line Movement & Market Trends

A quick glance at DraftKings’ odds history reveals:

• Lone’er Kavanagh opened at –238 (Aug. 17 morning) and has since slid to –218.
• Charles Johnson drifted from +195 to +180 over the same window.

This roughly 20-point shift in each fighter’s line suggests heavier wagering on Johnson from late sharp money, slightly softening the favorite’s odds. FanDuel and BetMGM have stayed relatively static, indicating most action—and the only significant line moves—occurred on DraftKings.

Overall, there are no dramatic swings or “runaway” line moves. The market remains confident in Kavanagh but has respect for Johnson’s veteran upside, nudging the moneyline toward a more balanced split.

$1,000 Bet Payouts

If you’re laying down a grand at the current best lines, here’s what you’d see back:

• Bet $1,000 on Lone’er Kavanagh at –218 (DraftKings)
  Total Payout: $1,458 (Profit: $458)

• Bet $1,000 on Charles Johnson at +200 (BetMGM)
  Total Payout: $3,000 (Profit: $2,000)

These figures show the stark contrast between backing a strong favorite versus taking a shot on the underdog.

Implied Probabilities

• Lone’er Kavanagh (–218): ~69% implied probability of winning
• Charles Johnson (+200): ~33% implied probability of winning

While Kavanagh is heavily favored, Johnson’s odds still offer a meaningful payout and reflect a realistic chance at pulling off an upset. Bettors eyeing value may lean toward the underdog line at BetMGM, whereas risk-averse backers will gravitate toward Kavanagh’s comfortable favorite status on DraftKings.