Su Mudaerji vs Kevin Borjas Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

## Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas Fight Analysis

### Event Overview  
On **August 23, 2025**, fight fans will converge on the **Shanghai Indoor Stadium** in Xuhui District, China, for the Main Card of **UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang**. Positioned toward the heart of the evening’s lineup, the Flyweight clash between **Su Mudaerji** and **Kevin Borjas** is set to kick off approximately at **10:45 AM UTC** (with the Main Card beginning at 10:00 AM UTC). This bout represents a pivotal opportunity for both fighters to climb the divisional ladder: Mudaerji, looking to rebound after a split decision win; and Borjas, aiming to snap a two-fight skid.

### Fighter Profiles  
- **Su Mudaerji (Red Corner)**  
  • Record: 17-7-0 (13 KOs, 0 Submissions)  
  • Age: 29 • Height: 5′8″ • Reach: 72″  
  • Style: Striker • UFC Debut: Jul. 2, 2025  
  • Hometown: Sichuan, China  

  A seasoned knockout artist, Mudaerji boasts an impressive **first-round finish** count of 11 and **average fight time** of just **10:10**. He blends precision striking (51% significant strike accuracy) with stout defense (60% significant strike defense), and maintains solid takedown defense (68%) despite rarely engaging on the mat.

- **Kevin Borjas (Blue Corner)**  
  • Record: 10-3-0 (8 KOs, 0 Submissions)  
  • Age: 27 • Height: 5′5″ • Reach: 68″  
  • Style: Undeclared • UFC Debut: Nov. 11, 2023  
  • Hometown: Lima, Peru  

  Borjas exploded onto the UFC scene with a **first-round knockout rate** of 50% and carries an **average fight time** of **12:54**. His 45% striking accuracy is complemented by a 51% strike defense, though he’s yet to register an official takedown in UFC competition. After a unanimous decision win over Luis Rodriguez in March 2025, the Peruvian slugger aims to prove he belongs among the division’s elite.

### Betting Odds & Key Matchup  
- **Favorite:** **Su Mudaerji** (–166 at FanDuel; –170 at BetOnline.ag)  
- **Underdog:** **Kevin Borjas** (+130 at FanDuel; +145 at BetOnline.ag)  

Oddsmakers have installed Mudaerji as a **moderate favorite**, largely on the strength of his knockout prowess, reach advantage and home-country aura. Borjas enters as the **underdog**, but his formidable power and first-round finishing ability make him a live long shot to spoil the script.  

### What’s at Stake  
For Mudaerji, a decisive victory on home soil would cement his status as a top-15 Flyweight contender and build momentum toward a potential showdown with established names in the 125-pound division. Borjas, on the other hand, needs a signature win to reverse a two-fight slide and ascend toward the UFC’s global rankings.  

With both athletes boasting heavy hands and contrasting styles—Mudaerji’s technical precision vs. Borjas’s raw power—this Flyweight battle promises fireworks. Whether you side with the proven Chinese striker in familiar territory or back the Peruvian puncher to pull off the upset, this bout is one of the most compelling matchups on the upcoming UFC Fight Night card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

## Matchup Overview and Fighter Profiles

### Su Mudaerji: The Chinese Striking Specialist  
- **Age:** 29  
- **Country:** China (Sichuan)  
- **Fighting Style:** Striker  
- **UFC Debut:** July 2, 2025  

#### Recent Form  
1. April 12, 2025 – **Win** vs. Mitch Raposo (Decision – Split)  
2. October 19, 2024 – **Loss** vs. Charles Johnson (Decision – Unanimous)  
3. December 9, 2023 – **Loss** vs. Tim Elliott (Submission – R1, 4:02)  
4. July 16, 2022 – **Loss** vs. Matt Schnell (Submission – R2, 4:24)  
5. January 20, 2021 – **Win** vs. Zarrukh Adashev (Decision – Unanimous)  

Su Mudaerji enters this bout riding high on a razor-thin split decision victory over Mitch Raposo, snapping a two-fight skid. Prior to that, he suffered consecutive decision and submission defeats to veterans Charles Johnson and Tim Elliott. His ability to recover mentally and piece together a game plan paid dividends in Shanghai, but questions remain about his grappling defense and late-fight cardio.

#### Strengths  
- **Finishing Instinct:** 13 of 17 wins by KO (76% KO rate), including 11 first-round finishes.  
- **High Volume Striker:** 51% significant strike accuracy, landing over half of his attempts.  
- **Defensive Footwork:** 60% significant strike defense, effectively evading counters and setting up combinations.  
- **Takedown Defense:** 68%, making him difficult to control on the mat despite modest wrestling output (25% takedown accuracy).

#### Weaknesses  
- **Ground Vulnerability:** Two most recent losses came via submission, hinting at susceptibility to high-level grapplers.  
- **Cardio Concerns:** Average fight time of 10:10 suggests a tendency to start fast but fade in championship rounds.  
- **Unproven Adaptability:** Rarely mixes in takedowns (25% accuracy), so fighters with strong wrestling could negate his striking edge.

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### Kevin Borjas: The Peruvian Power Puncher  
- **Age:** 27  
- **Country:** Peru (Lima)  
- **Fighting Style:** Stand-up brawler (undeclared)  
- **UFC Debut:** November 11, 2023  

#### Recent Form  
1. March 29, 2025 – **Win** vs. Luis Rodriguez (Decision – Unanimous)  
2. May 4, 2024 – **Loss** vs. Alessandro Costa (KO/TKO – R2, 1:35)  
3. November 11, 2023 – **Loss** vs. Joshua Van (Decision – Unanimous)  

Borjas is coming off a solid unanimous decision over Luis Rodriguez, but his UFC tenure has been a rollercoaster: a debut loss to Joshua Van, a heavy knockout defeat to Alessandro Costa, then redemption in March. This inconsistency underscores both his raw talent and gaps in defensive discipline.

#### Strengths  
- **One-Punch Power:** 8 KOs in 10 victories (80% knockout ratio), capable of ending fights at any moment.  
- **First-Round Finisher:** 5 of 10 wins in round one, putting opponents on high alert early.  
- **Chin and Durability:** 51% significant strike defense, showing the ability to absorb and counter heavy strikes.  
- **Aggressive Pace:** A willingness to press forward, crowd opponents against the cage and unleash power shots.

#### Weaknesses  
- **Striking Accuracy:** 45% significant strike accuracy, indicating a fair number of missed power punches that can leave him off-balance.  
- **Grappling Deficit:** 0% takedown accuracy; opponents with wrestling pedigree can exploit poor shot selection.  
- **Defensive Lapses:** Early TKO loss to Costa reveals occasional lapses in head movement and guard discipline.  
- **Cardio Limitations:** 12:54 average fight time suggests he may gas if unable to secure a quick finish.

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### Head-to-Head Dynamics  
Su Mudaerji’s technical striking, reach advantage (72″ vs. 68″), and superior takedown defense present a complex puzzle for Borjas, who must close distance without eating combinations. Conversely, Borjas’s one-punch power and forward pressure could disrupt Mudaerji’s rhythm, especially if he can drag the fight into deep waters where the Chinese striker’s cardio wanes. This clash of styles—precision vs. power—promises fireworks inside the Octagon.

## Betting Odds & Line Movement

### Current Betting Odds  
- **Su Mudaerji**  
  - FanDuel: **–166**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **–170**  

- **Kevin Borjas**  
  - FanDuel: **+130**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **+145**  

Oddsmakers have installed **Su Mudaerji** as the clear favorite, with prices in the –166 to –170 range. **Kevin Borjas** sits comfortably in underdog territory, fetching +130 at FanDuel and climbing to +145 at BetOnline. The differential of roughly **300–315 cents** between the two fighters underscores the expectation that Mudaerji’s precision striking and home-country advantage give him the edge, while Borjas’s power and finishing upside make him a tempting outsider.

**Best Sportsbooks to Shop Around**  
- For backing **Mudaerji**, **FanDuel’s –166** line offers the strongest payout among major books.  
- For siding with **Borjas**, **BetOnline.ag’s +145** is top-tier, outperforming the +130 offered elsewhere.

### Line Movement & Trends  
A look at the **odds history** reveals a meaningful drift on BetOnline.ag over the past 48 hours:  
- **Su Mudaerji** opened at **–140** (Aug. 15, 00:01 UTC), ticked to **–160** by afternoon, and sits at **–170** as of Aug. 16.  
- **Kevin Borjas** began at **+120**, slid to **+140**, and now peaks at **+145**.  

On **FanDuel**, prices have stabilized at –166 for Mudaerji and +130 for Borjas, indicating consensus action at that shop. The BetOnline swing suggests heavy wagering on the favorite, forcing sportsbooks to lengthen Borjas further as they lay more risk on Mudaerji. Sharp bettors appear confident in Mudaerji’s tools, while casual backers may be piling onto the attractive +145 underdog number for Borjas.

### Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities  
If you had **$1,000** on either fighter, here’s what you’d get back:  
- **Su Mudaerji (–166 at FanDuel)**  
  • Total Return: **$1,602** (profit of $602)  
  • Implied Win Probability: **~63%**  

- **Kevin Borjas (+145 at BetOnline.ag)**  
  • Total Return: **$2,450** (profit of $1,450)  
  • Implied Win Probability: **~41%**  

The odds paint a clear picture: Mudaerji is favored to win just under two-thirds of the time, whereas Borjas’s underdog mark reflects roughly a two-in-five chance. Whether you trust the local favorite’s technical edge or the Peruvian’s one-punch power, shopping for the best line—**FanDuel for Mudaerji**, **BetOnline.ag for Borjas**—is essential to maximizing your potential return.