Bukauskas vs Craig Betting Odds & UFC Paris Fight Analysis

Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The highly anticipated Light Heavyweight showdown between Modestas Bukauskas and Paul Craig headlines the main card of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho, live from the Accor Arena in Paris, France on Saturday, September 6, 2025. The action gets underway at 7:00 PM UTC (9:00 PM local time), with Bukauskas vs. Craig slated as the opening bout of the main card, following the conclusion of the preliminary slate.

Event Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho
• Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC / 9:00 PM CET
• Venue: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Card Position: Main Card Opener
• Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lb)

The Betting Lines: Favorite vs. Underdog

As fight week arrives, the oddsmakers have installed Modestas Bukauskas as a clear favorite across every major sportsbook.

• Bukauskas: –300 (Caesars, BetMGM), –298 (DraftKings), –285 (BetUS, BetOnline.ag)
• Craig: +240 (Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings, BetRivers), +234 (BetUS), +245 (BetOnline.ag)

Those lines translate to a 75% implied win probability for Bukauskas, while Scotland’s submission ace Paul Craig enters as the quintessential underdog at roughly 29%. A successful wager on Craig at +240 returns nearly two-and-a-half times the stake, underscoring the market’s respect for his finishing pedigree—but also its belief that Bukauskas will control the striking exchanges and dictate the pace.

What’s at Stake

For Modestas Bukauskas (18-6-0, 10 KOs, 3 SUBs), a victory propels him closer to the top 15 of the Light Heavyweight division. Riding a two-fight win streak—including a razor-thin split decision over Ion Cutelaba—Bukauskas has showcased an evolving ground game (67% takedown accuracy) to complement his thunderous kickboxing background.

Meanwhile, Paul Craig (17-9-1, 4 KOs, 13 SUBs) is desperate to snap a five-bout skid. Known as “Bearjew” for his relentless submission hunting, Craig boasts a 77% finish rate. However, his recent struggles—four consecutive losses, including a last-second stoppage by Rodolfo Bellato—have dulled his upward momentum. A comeback win in Paris would not only revive his Octagon trajectory but also reestablish him as one of the division’s most dangerous grapplers.

Keys to the Matchup

• Striking vs. Grappling: Bukauskas will look to keep the fight upright, utilizing leg kicks and long-range combinations.
• Takedown Timing: Craig’s best path to victory is to exploit openings in Bukauskas’s takedown defense (78%) and unleash his world-class submissions.
• Cardio & Pace: Both men tend to push early; fatigue or injury could tilt the balance in later rounds if they fail to adjust.

With so much on the line—for rankings, redemption and momentum—this opening bout sets the tone for what promises to be an electric night of action in Paris. bettors and fans alike will be glued to their seats as Modestas Bukauskas and Paul Craig collide under the bright lights of the Accor Arena.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Modestas Bukauskas

Age: 31 • Country: Lithuania • Fighting Style: Kickboxer

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Win vs Ion Cutelaba (Split Decision) – May 10, 2025
• Win vs Rafael Cerqueira (KO/TKO R1, 2:12) – Feb 22, 2025
• Win vs Marcin Prachnio (Submission R3, 3:12) – Jul 27, 2024
• Loss vs Vitor Petrino (KO/TKO R2, 1:03) – Nov 4, 2023
• Win vs Zac Pauga (Unanimous Decision) – Jun 17, 2023

Bukauskas enters this bout riding a four-win stretch over five fights, showcasing his evolving all-around game. After a second-round KO loss to Vitor Petrino in late 2023, he has bounced back with both striking and grappling victories.

Strengths

• Takedown Prowess: 67% accuracy and 78% takedown defense make him a dual threat on the feet and in the clinch.
• Durable Defense: 51% significant strike defense helps him absorb pressure and reset his offense.
• Power & Versatility: 10 of his 18 wins come by knockout; he also boasts three submission victories, showing improved ground awareness.

Weaknesses

• Striking Precision: A 43% significant strike accuracy suggests he can struggle to consistently land against elusive opponents.
• Pace Management: With an average fight time of 9:36, he sometimes fades late if unable to finish early.

---

Paul Craig

Age: 37 • Country: Scotland • Fighting Style: Kung-Fu (Grappler)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Loss vs Rodolfo Bellato (Could Not Continue R1, 4:59) – Jun 14, 2025
• Loss vs Rodolfo Bellato (Decision) – May 17, 2025
• Loss vs Bo Nickal (Unanimous Decision) – Nov 16, 2024
• Loss vs Caio Borralho (KO/TKO R2, 2:10) – May 4, 2024
• Loss vs Brendan Allen (Submission R3, 0:38) – Nov 18, 2023

Craig is in the midst of a five-fight skid, a surprising downturn for a fighter with 13 career submission wins. His struggles have come against both strikers and wrestlers, raising questions about his ability to adapt.

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: 13 submissions in 17 wins (76% finish rate) make him one of the most dangerous grapplers in Light Heavyweight.
• Finishing Instincts: 11 first-round finishes indicate explosive offense when he implements his game plan early.
• Significant Strikes: 45% accuracy shows he can tag opponents when he sets up his clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Efficiency: Just 19% accuracy and 35% defense leave him vulnerable to wrestlers who can neutralize his ground threats.
• Durability Issues: Allowing finishes in four of his last five fights suggests declining chin or poor defensive mechanics.
• Pace & Stamina: An average fight time of 8:10 belies conditioning concerns once opponents survive early onslaughts.

---

Stylistic Clash & Key Dynamics

• Striking vs. Grappling: Bukauskas will look to keep the fight standing, using leg kicks and combinations to slow Craig’s entries.
• Grapple Exchanges: If Craig secures takedowns, he must advance position quickly—otherwise, Bukauskas’s takedown defense (78%) and ground-and-pound will punish him.
• Cardio Battle: Craig must avoid early firefights; lasting deep into the fight could expose his cardio and striking defense gaps.

This clash of a powerful kickboxer with a submission specialist presents a classic styles make fights scenario. Bukauskas’s well-rounded toolkit and recent momentum make him the favorite, but Craig’s deadly subs mean one slip could change everything.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Odds Snapshot

Here’s a look at the latest head-to-head odds across major sportsbooks for Modestas Bukauskas and Paul Craig in the Light Heavyweight clash:

• Modestas Bukauskas (Favorite)
  • Caesars: –300
  • BetMGM: –300
  • DraftKings: –298
  • BetUS: –285
  • BetRivers: –335
  • BetOnline.ag: –285

• Paul Craig (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +240
  • BetMGM: +240
  • DraftKings: +240
  • BetRivers: +240
  • BetUS: +234
  • BetOnline.ag: +245

Bukauskas commands roughly a 75% implied win chance, while Craig sits near 29%—a sizable gap reflecting the favorite’s all-around toolkit versus the underdog’s recent struggles.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Modestas Bukauskas: A proven kickboxer with improving takedown offense (67% accuracy) and iron-clad takedown defense (78%). His favorability at –300 (average) underscores sharp money on his versatile striking and grappling.
• Paul Craig: A submission specialist boasting 13 career subs, but tainted by a five-fight skid. His +240 line rewards risk-takers willing to back his explosive ground game in Paris.

Best Sportsbooks for Maximum Value

• BetOnline.ag offers the highest number for Craig at +245. A $1,000 wager here would yield $2,450 profit (total $3,450 return).
• BetUS and BetOnline.ag provide the softest juice on Bukauskas at –285, meaning you only need to risk $285 to win $100 (better than the –300 or –335 elsewhere).

Line Movement: Tracking the Swings

A review of line history shows notable flux as bettors weigh each fighter’s form:

• BetMGM shifted Craig from +260 → +240 in 24 hours, while moving Bukauskas from –325 → –300.
• BetUS dropped Craig from +246 → +234 and lifted Bukauskas from –300 → –285.
• BetOnline.ag trimmed Craig from +250 → +245, likewise easing Bukauskas from –300 → –285.

These swings signal early sharp action on Craig drew his odds down, but late money has circled back to push the favorite’s line shorter.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you lay down $1,000 on either man today, here’s what you’d get back and the win chance implied by the books:

• Bet $1,000 on Bukauskas at –300
  • Profit: $333 | Total Return: $1,333
  • Implied Win %: 75%

• Bet $1,000 on Craig at +240
  • Profit: $2,400 | Total Return: $3,400
  • Implied Win %: 29%

• Bet $1,000 on Craig at +245 (BetOnline.ag)
  • Profit: $2,450 | Total Return: $3,450

• Bet $1,000 on Bukauskas at –285 (better juice)
  • Profit: $351 | Total Return: $1,351

With the line still shifting, those looking for maximum upside on the underdog will favor Craig at +245, while risk-averse bettors backing the chalk should snag –285 over –300 or deeper. As money pours in, keep an eye on which side sees fresh action—and whether Bukauskas’s favoritism or Craig’s upset equity is the sharper play heading into Paris.