Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci fight analysis

Fight Details

Get ready for an action-packed showdown as Amanda Ribas takes on Tabatha Ricci in a pivotal Women’s Strawweight bout on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder. The clash is set for Saturday, July 26, 2025, with the preliminary action kicking off at 4:00 PM UTC at the spectacular Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This matchup will feature two Brazilian judo specialists looking to solidify their standing in the 115-pound division and move closer to a top-five ranking.

The Favorite and the Underdog

Heading into this contest, the betting markets have made Amanda Ribas the clear favorite. Ribas enters with a 12-6-0 professional record and is currently ranked #7 in the Women’s Strawweight division. At -145 on the American odds board, she carries the weight of expectation to impose her multifaceted striking and grappling attack on the #10-ranked challenger. Tabatha Ricci, at +125, plays the role of the underdog despite a strong 11-3-0 ledger. Ricci’s high takedown defense (82 %) and patient striking approach make her a difficult puzzle, but she’ll need to overcome both the odds and the proven pedigree of Ribas to score an upset.

What’s at Stake

With a victory, Ribas can rebound from back-to-back losses to two of the division’s elite—Mackenzie Dern and Rose Namajunas—and jump back into the conversation for a potential challenger slot. A win over a top-10 opponent like Ricci would go a long way toward re-establishing her momentum and climbing closer to a title eliminator. For Ricci, this fight represents an opportunity to notch her most significant victory yet. Having demonstrated solid all-around skills—including a 36 % striking accuracy and three career submissions—Ricci has steadily climbed the rankings since her UFC debut in June 2021. Defeating Ribas would not only cement her status as a rising threat but also potentially vault her into the upper echelon of the strawweight division.

Style Contrast

Both fighters share a judo background, but their in-cage approaches differ. Ribas tends to blend precision striking (40 % significant strike accuracy) with powerful takedowns (54 % accuracy), hunting finishes early—evidenced by her five first-round stoppages. Ricci, on the other hand, favors a more measured pace. She patiently picks her shots, mixes in level changes to test takedown entries, and relies on her stout 58 % significant strike defense to thwart opponents. Expect a chess match early, with both athletes probing for openings on the feet and in clinch exchanges.

As the prelims heat up at the Etihad Arena, this matchup promises a technical grappling battle underscored by explosive judo entries and striking counters. With Ribas as the betting favorite and Ricci eager to defy the odds, the fight is poised to deliver high-level action and meaningful implications for both competitors’ trajectories in the Women’s Strawweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Amanda Ribas Profile

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Judo with a heavy emphasis on takedowns and ground control
• Physical Attributes: 5'4" (64" height), 66" reach, 116 lb walking weight

Recent Form
Amanda Ribas has alternated wins and losses against top‐level opponents:

• Jan. 11, 2025 – Loss to Mackenzie Dern by submission (R3, 4:56)
• Mar. 23, 2024 – Loss to Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision (R5, 5:00)
• Nov. 18, 2023 – Win over Luana Pinheiro via KO/TKO (R3, 3:53)
• Jun. 24, 2023 – Loss to Maycee Barber via KO/TKO (R2, 3:42)
• Mar. 4, 2023 – Win over Viviane Araujo by decision (R3, 5:00)

Over her last five outings Ribas is 2-3, but all defeats came against current or former top‐five contenders. Her victories showcase her finishing ability and resilience under pressure.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Takedown Offense: 54% accuracy, one of the division’s best chain‐wrestlers
  • Finishing Instincts: 5 first‐round finishes; 4 KOs and 4 submissions on her résumé
  • Significant Striking: 40% striking accuracy pairs well with her takedowns
  • Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 12:45 indicates she can maintain pressure

• Weaknesses:

  • Striking Defense: 60% defense leaves openings for heavy hitters (knocked out twice in last five)
  • Submission Defense: Vulnerable to elite grapplers (submitted by Dern)
  • Inconsistency vs. Elite Opponents: 0-2 in last two fights against top‐ranked foes

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Tabatha Ricci Profile

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Judo-centric with a focus on clinch control and positional grappling
• Physical Attributes: 5'1" (61" height), 61" reach, 115.5 lb walking weight

Recent Form
Ricci has bounced in and out of the win column against ranked opponents:

• Nov. 23, 2024 – Loss to Xiaonan Yan by unanimous decision (R3, 5:00)
• Aug. 24, 2024 – Win over Angela Hill by unanimous decision (R3, 5:00)
• May 11, 2024 – Win over Tecia Pennington by split decision (R3, 5:00)
• Nov. 11, 2023 – Loss to Loopy Godinez by split decision (R3, 5:00)
• Jun. 24, 2023 – Win over Gillian Robertson by unanimous decision (R3, 5:00)

In her last five fights, Ricci holds a 3-2 record, demonstrating steady improvements in her offensive output and fight IQ.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:

  • Takedown Defense: 82%—among the best in the strawweight division, difficult to keep down
  • Significant Strike Defense: 58%—absorbs fewer strikes than average and thrives in countering opportunities
  • Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 13:22 showcases her comfort in late-round battles
  • Ground Control & Judo Entries: 3 career submissions, able to work from top or clinch

• Weaknesses:

  • Striking Output: 36% accuracy and only 1 knockout win signals a lack of one-punch power
  • Takedown Offense: 38% accuracy—struggles to secure takedowns against high-level wrestlers
  • Finishing Ability: Only 2 first-round finishes; often relies on decisions

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Tactical Breakdown

This clash pits two Brazilian judoka with contrasting strengths. Ribas brings elite takedown offense and finishing instincts but must shore up her defense against Ricci’s counter-striking and takedown defense. Ricci will look to neutralize Ribas’s grappling, use her superior defensive metrics and cardio to drag the fight into deep waters, and win on points. Physical edges in height (+3”) and reach (+5”) favor Ribas, but Ricci’s stifling defense and patient style make this a compelling chess match. Both fighters must exploit their opponent’s vulnerabilities: Ribas targeting Ricci’s lower strike output, and Ricci aiming to survive the early storm and win the later rounds with volume and control.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on July 19, 2025, the betting market has installed Amanda Ribas as the clear favorite and Tabatha Ricci as the underdog for their Women’s Strawweight clash. At BetOnline.ag, the lines stand at:

• Amanda Ribas: -145 (American odds)
• Tabatha Ricci: +125 (American odds)

Odds Comparison

• Favorite (Ribas): At -145, Ribas must risk $145 to win $100, reflecting heavy public and sharp support.
• Underdog (Ricci): At +125, a $100 stake on Ricci would net $125, pointing to a respectable belief in her upset potential.
• The spread between -145 and +125 represents a roughly 2.3:1 lean toward Ribas, underscoring her edge in experience, reach, and finishing prowess.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While multiple books carry these lines, BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive pricing and the smoothest line movement history for this fight. Their market reacts quickly to sharp action, and they have consistently held the best mid-range juice on both sides. For those looking to lock in a favorable price or shop for a small line improvement, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to option.

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Line Movement & Trends

Tracking odds over the past 48 hours reveals subtle but telling shifts:

| Date & Time (UTC) | Amanda Ribas | Tabatha Ricci |
|-------------------------|-------------:|--------------:|
| July 18, 16:50 | -140 | +120 |
| July 18, 19:20 | -130 | +110 |
| July 19, 08:10 | -145 | +125 |

• Initial Shift (July 18 Afternoon): Ribas shortened from -140 to -130 while Ricci tightened from +120 to +110. This early movement suggests sharp bettors targeting the underdog, prompting sportsbooks to reduce Ricci’s potential payout.
• Late Swing (July 19 Morning): Both lines moved in opposite directions, with Ribas drifting back to -145 and Ricci stretching to +125. This late adjustment indicates fresh public money on Ribas, driving up her favorite status and offering slightly richer underdog odds on Ricci.

The most significant swing came in the early evening of July 18, when Ricci’s line improved by 10 cents and Ribas’ price shortened by the same margin—an indicator of respect for Ricci’s defensive prowess and ability to dictate pace. The subsequent counter-move the next morning reflects a balancing act by oddsmakers and late bettors hedging on Ribas’ proven finishing ability.

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Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to bet:

• On Amanda Ribas (-145):
  • Payout returned: $1,689.66 (profit of $689.66)
  • Implied win probability: ~59%
• On Tabatha Ricci (+125):
  • Payout returned: $2,250.00 (profit of $1,250.00)
  • Implied win probability: ~44%

Those figures illustrate the risk/reward dynamic: a healthier payout and lower implied probability for the underdog versus a safer, smaller return backing the favored Ribas. Consider your confidence in each fighter’s style, recent trends, and the line movement above when deciding where to place your $1,000 stake.