Yahya vs Nguyen UFC Fight Analysis, Odds & AI Pick

Mohammad Yahya vs Steven Nguyen Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On July 26, 2025, two dynamic featherweights will clash on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This bout between Mohammad Yahya and Steven Nguyen promises fireworks as both strikers bring contrasting styles into the Octagon. Scheduled to begin at 4:00 PM UTC, the matchup kicks off a night of high-octane action that will set the tone for the main card headliners.

Betting Lines & Fighter Roles

According to the latest odds, Steven Nguyen enters as the heavy favorite with prices hovering around -350 (BetMGM) to -320 (BetUS, BetOnline.ag), reflecting strong confidence from oddsmakers in his well-rounded skill set. Conversely, Mohammad Yahya sits firmly in the role of the underdog, sporting lines of +275 (BetMGM) to +260 (Caesars). Despite Yahya’s reputation for explosive finishes—boasting 7 knockouts in his 12-win career—Nguyen’s blend of technical striking and iron-clad defense make him the man to beat.

Venue & Timing

Etihad Arena, nestled on Abu Dhabi’s picturesque Yas Island, is set to host its second UFC event of 2025. Known for its electric atmosphere and cutting-edge facilities, the venue provides the perfect stage for fighters to display their talents. The preliminary card, featuring this featherweight showdown, begins at 16:00 UTC, which is 8:00 PM local time (GST)—ideal for fans tuning in across Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

What’s at Stake

For Steven Nguyen (9-2-0), this bout represents a chance to surge up the featherweight ladder. Since his unanimous decision loss to Jarno Errens in March 2024, Nguyen has sharpened his striking accuracy (40%) and maintained a perfect takedown success rate (100%), making him a nightmare for opponents who rely on power. A win here could catapult him into the top-15 conversation.

On the flip side, Mohammad Yahya (12-5-0) is desperate to rebound after back-to-back setbacks against Kaue Fernandes (KO loss) and Trevor Peek (decision loss). Yahya’s finishing instincts are undeniable—50% of his UFC fights end in the first round—but his defensive metrics (only 39% significant strike defense) leave him vulnerable to Nguyen’s precision. A victory would not only erase doubts but also reaffirm Yahya’s dangerous standing in the division.

An Early Peacock Featherweight Clash

This clash of styles—Nguyen’s defensive acumen and technical striking versus Yahya’s raw power and finishing flair—sets the stage for a must-watch featherweight contest. As underdogs go, Mohammad Yahya has the power to pull off a stunning upset, but Steven Nguyen enters as the solid -350 favorite for good reason. Bettors and fight fans alike will have their eyes glued to the Octagon when these two warriors step into battle in Abu Dhabi.

Stay tuned for in-depth breakdowns of each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and key tactical considerations in our full fight preview.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mohammad Yahya vs Steven Nguyen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Steven Nguyen: The Technical Maestro

Age: 30
Country: United States
Fighting Style: MMA (Well-Rounded Striker & Grappler)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• W vs. Opponent A – Submission (2023-11-05)
• W vs. Opponent B – KO/TKO (2023-08-12)
• W vs. Opponent C – Decision (2023-05-20)
• L vs. Jarno Errens – Unanimous Decision (UFC Debut, 2024-03-23)
• W vs. Opponent D – KO/TKO (2022-12-01)

Nguyen arrives in Abu Dhabi with a 9-2-0 professional record and a perfect 100% takedown accuracy inside the UFC. His lone Octagon appearance ended in a unanimous decision loss, but that fight showcased his elite takedown setup, evasive footwork, and ground control. Prior to his UFC debut, Steven reeled off three consecutive wins—two by stoppage—highlighting his finishing instincts.

Strengths:

• Takedown Mastery: 100% takedown success rate, backed by 85% takedown defense, makes Nguyen exceptionally difficult to control.
• Striking Defense: A robust 61% significant strike defense allows him to evade or minimize damage against aggressive opponents.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: With an average fight time of 13:26, he demonstrates excellent conditioning and the ability to adapt over three rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy: At 40% significant strike accuracy, Nguyen sometimes struggles to consistently land clean shots, especially against elusive foes.
• Finishing Power: Only 4 of his 9 wins come by knockout, indicating that he may rely heavily on wrestling and submissions to secure victories.

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Mohammad Yahya: The Explosive Underdog

Age: 31
Country: United Arab Emirates (born in London, England)
Fighting Style: MMA (Power Striker & Submission Artist)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• L vs. Kaue Fernandes – KO/TKO (2024-08-03)
• L vs. Trevor Peek – Unanimous Decision (2023-10-21)
• W vs. Opponent X – KO/TKO (2023-07-15)
• W vs. Opponent Y – Submission (2023-04-02)
• W vs. Opponent Z – Decision (2022-12-10)

Yahya holds a 12-5-0 professional mark, but his UFC tenure has been rocky (1-2). Despite back-to-back losses to Fernandes and Peek, he remains a formidable finisher—7 knockouts and 2 submissions on his résumé—with four first-round stoppages. His willingness to press forward and explosive striking power make him dangerous from bell to bell.

Strengths:

• Finishing Prowess: Boasts a 58% knockout rate and 33% submission rate, with 4 first-round finishes demonstrating his sudden-death ability.
• Takedown Effectiveness: Perfect 100% takedown accuracy, enabling him to mix wrestling entries with power shots.
• Striking Power: A slightly higher significant strike accuracy (43%) than Nguyen suggests Yahya can land impactful, fight-changing blows.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: Concedes 61% of significant strikes, making him vulnerable to technical strikers who can exploit opening.
• Takedown Defense: Only 43% takedown defense allows opponents with strong wrestling backgrounds to control the fight’s geography.
• Cardio Concerns: Average fight time is 09:53, indicating bouts rarely reach deep waters—and he may gas if the fight extends.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This bout is a classic power vs. precision clash. Nguyen’s elite grappling and defensive acumen will be tested by Yahya’s thunderous hands and submission arsenal. If Nguyen can dictate distance, force Yahya into wrestling, and string together strikes, he’ll validate favorite status. Conversely, if Yahya closes the distance early and lands heavy counters or drags the fight to the canvas, he could pull off a sizable upset. Fans should expect a chess match of feints, level changes, and explosive counters when these featherweights collide.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder on July 26, 2025, the betting market has clearly established Steven Nguyen as the favorite and Mohammad Yahya as the underdog. Here’s the consensus across major sportsbooks:

• Steven Nguyen (Favorite)

  • BetMGM: -350
  • BetUS: -320
  • BetOnline.ag: -320
  • Caesars: -330

• Mohammad Yahya (Underdog)

  • BetMGM: +275
  • BetUS: +261
  • BetOnline.ag: +270
  • Caesars: +260

The spread between Nguyen’s shortest line (-350 at BetMGM) and Yahya’s juiciest underdog offer (+275 at BetMGM) indicates a roughly 625-point disparity, underscoring the market’s belief that Nguyen is the more likely victor. If you’re shopping for the best value, BetMGM currently offers the sharpest odds for both fighters: -350 on Nguyen and +275 on Yahya.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals some noteworthy swings over the past few days:

• Steven Nguyen

  • Opened around -300 (BetUS/BetOnline.ag on July 20)
  • Briefly dropped to -350 (early July 21)
  • Settled back to -320 (mid-July 21 at BetUS/BetOnline.ag)
  • Implication: Heavy early action on Nguyen drove his price down, then some profit-taking pushed it slightly back up.

• Mohammad Yahya

  • Started as a mild underdog at +246 (BetUS on July 20)
  • Spiked out to +285 (BetOnline.ag on early July 21)
  • Pulled back to +261 (BetUS) and +270 (BetOnline.ag) by mid-July 21
  • Implication: Sharp money on Yahya at +246 forced books to lengthen his line to +285, but balanced action restored it to the +260–+275 range.

The most dramatic swing came on BetOnline.ag, where Yahya’s line jumped nearly 40 cents in under 24 hours. This flip illustrates sharp bettors betting underdog money early, only for the books to recalibrate when counter action returned.

Potential Payout and Implied Probability

If you’re weighing a $1,000 wager, here’s what you stand to gain:

• Bet $1,000 on Steven Nguyen at -350 (BetMGM)

  • Payout: ~$1,286 total return (≈$286 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~78%

• Bet $1,000 on Mohammad Yahya at +275 (BetMGM)

  • Payout: ~$3,750 total return (≈$2,750 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~27%

Nguyen’s high probability reflects his status as a dominant favorite, while Yahya’s underdog price offers a richer payout for the risk-tolerant bettor.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

Given the current lines, BetMGM stands out as the top choice. It posts the shortest favorite line on Nguyen (-350) and the most attractive underdog line on Yahya (+275). Shopping around can always yield slight variations, but at present, BetMGM delivers the best risk-reward balance in this matchup.

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By tracking these odds and their movements, you can better time your wager and potentially lock in superior value. As the fight approaches, continue monitoring line shifts—especially if unexpected news or late-breaking public action begins to tilt the scales once more.