UFC Anders vs Duncan Breakdown: Odds, Stats & AI Pick

Eryk Anders vs Christian Leroy Duncan fight analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated middleweight showdown between Christian Leroy Duncan and Eryk Anders is set to ignite the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, August 9, 2025, kicking off at 8:00 PM local time (11:00 PM ET). This clash headlines the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez, delivering a compelling mix of striking power, veteran savvy, and contrasting career trajectories. Competing under the 185-pound banner, both fighters bring distinct styles and narratives into the Octagon: Scotland’s surging knockout artist faces off against an American finisher who’s eager to remind fans why he remains a threat in the division.

Entering this contest as the heavy favorite, Christian Leroy Duncan boasts a sterling 11-2-0 professional record, with eight of those victories coming by way of knockout. At just 29 years old, Duncan has rapidly ascended through the ranks since his UFC debut in March 2023, demonstrating elite significant striking accuracy (60%) and a rigid takedown defense (72%). His last outing, a unanimous decision win over Andrey Pulyaev in March 2025, showcased his evolving fight IQ, improved cardio, and trademark finishing instincts. With first-round finishes accounting for over a third of his stoppages, Duncan’s blend of precision, power, and youthful confidence makes him the betting market’s clear favorite at -500 odds (BetOnline.ag).

On the opposite side of the Octagon stands Eryk Anders, the seasoned 37-year-old former NFL linebacker turned UFC veteran with a 17-8-0 record, including ten knockouts. Anders headlines as the underdog at +375, reflecting both his experience and the uphill battle he faces against a faster, younger opponent. Since his UFC debut in July 2017, Anders has delivered highlight-reel finishes—most recently a devastating TKO of Chris Weidman in December 2024—and showcased an aggressive striking style complemented by a sturdy takedown defense (80%). However, his average fight time sits at 12:11, hinting at potential cardio concerns against a relentless pace. Nevertheless, Anders’s wealth of experience, knockout pedigree, and iron chin ensure he remains a dangerous adversary capable of seizing a late-round turnaround.

This introductory analysis establishes the foundation for a deeper dive into each fighter’s strengths and vulnerabilities. We will explore Duncan’s technical striking mastery versus Anders’s power-punching aggression, examine historical fight trends, and uncover critical betting angles. Whether you’re seeking a safe play on the red-hot Scotsman or eyeing the value in an American veteran bounce-back, this fight promises fireworks—and potentially lucrative wagering opportunities—for fans and bettors alike.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Eryk Anders vs Christian Leroy Duncan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

This middleweight clash pairs the dynamic Christian Leroy Duncan against the seasoned Eryk Anders, offering a classic youth-versus-experience narrative. On paper, Duncan’s pinpoint striking and finishing prowess clash with Anders’s raw power and veteran savvy. Below, we break down each fighter’s background, recent form, and statistical strengths and weaknesses to paint a clear picture of how this matchup could unfold.

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Christian Leroy Duncan Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Scotland (United Kingdom)
• Fighting Style: MMA striker with a wrestling takedown defense focus
• UFC Debut: March 18, 2023

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Decision – Unanimous) – Mar. 22, 2025
2. Loss vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Decision – Unanimous) – Jul. 27, 2024
3. Win vs. Claudio Ribeiro (KO/TKO, R2 – 1:57) – Mar. 2, 2024
4. Win vs. Denis Tiuliulin (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:24) – Nov. 18, 2023
5. Loss vs. Armen Petrosyan (Decision – Unanimous) – Jun. 17, 2023

Duncan enters this fight riding a 3–2 run, having rebounded from losses to capture two emphatic second-round TKOs. His unanimous decision win over Pulyaev showcased improved pacing and fight IQ.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (60%): Lands 6 out of every 10 significant strikes, one of the division’s best.
• Knockout Power: 8 KOs in 11 wins; heavy hands capable of ending fights early (4 first–round finishes).
• Takedown Defense (72%): Rarely taken down, stifling opponents’ ground games.
• Average Fight Time (10:32): Consistently pushes a high output pace before fatigue sets in.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (11%): Attempts few takedowns; lacks wrestling versatility to mix levels.
• Striking Defense (52%): Slightly below division average, vulnerable to counters and volume punchers.
• Experience: Only two years in the UFC; potential ring rust against a battle-tested veteran.

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Eryk Anders Profile

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA finisher with a background in wrestling and power striking
• UFC Debut: July 23, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Chris Weidman (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:51) – Dec. 7, 2024
2. Win vs. Jamie Pickett (Decision – Unanimous) – Mar. 2, 2024
3. Loss vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Decision – Unanimous) – Jun. 10, 2023
4. Win vs. Kyle Daukaus (KO/TKO, R2 – 2:45) – Dec. 3, 2022
5. Loss vs. Jun Yong Park (Decision – Split) – May 21, 2022

Anders has alternated wins and losses but most recently claimed a highlight-reel TKO over former champion Chris Weidman. His finish rate remains elite, yet consistency has eluded him.

Strengths

• Knockout Ratio: 10 KOs in 17 wins, with 7 first–round stoppages—devastating power early.
• Takedown Defense (80%): Denies wrestling-heavy opponents and keeps fights standing.
• Experience: Eight years on UFC rosters; comfortable under pressure and in deep waters.
• Takedown Offense (25%): Above-average wrestling, can mix takedowns when needed.

Weaknesses

• Age & Durability: At 37, pace and recovery may lag, especially against younger adversaries.
• Striking Accuracy (48%) & Defense (51%): Below-average accuracy and defense open him up to volume strikers.
• Average Fight Time (12:11): Tends to drag into later rounds, exposing cardio concerns against relentless pace.

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By contrasting Duncan’s precision striking and youth with Anders’s veteran power and wrestling base, this Middleweight bout promises dynamic exchanges—where Duncan looks to outpoint and finish early, while Anders seeks to weather the storm and capitalize on any mistakes. Bettors and fans should weigh Duncan’s technical edge against Anders’s experience and heavy hands when making their picks.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As the UFC Apex lights up on August 9, the current moneyline at BetOnline.ag heavily favors Christian Leroy Duncan at -500, while Eryk Anders sits firmly in the underdog role at +375. This gap highlights the market’s confidence in Duncan’s precision striking and rising profile versus Anders’s veteran reputation. At these odds:

• A $1,000 wager on Duncan would return $1,200 (including your stake) for a $200 profit.
• A $1,000 wager on Anders would return $4,750 (including your stake) for a $3,750 profit.

In implied probability terms, Duncan carries roughly an 83% chance of winning, while Anders’s chances are pegged around 21%. These figures underscore just how wide the expectation gap is heading into fight night.

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Line Movement and Trends

Tracking the line movement over the last 48 hours reveals sharp action on both sides:

Christian Leroy Duncan (BetOnline.ag)

• July 27, 12:39 PM: -400
• July 27, 8:29 PM: -450
• July 28, 8:01 AM: -500

Eryk Anders (BetOnline.ag)

• July 27, 12:39 PM: +300
• July 27, 8:29 PM: +350
• July 28, 8:01 AM: +375

Key observations:

• Sharps and early money drove Duncan from -400 to -500, indicating confidence in his matchup advantages.
• Anders’s odds lengthened from +300 to +375, suggesting the market is becoming more comfortable with the Scot as the chalk.
• No drastic reversals have occurred, but the steady drift underscores Duncan’s growing favoritism and possibly a lean toward his youth and technical edge.

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Underdog vs. Favorite Breakdown

• Favorite: Christian Leroy Duncan (-500)
  • Known for 60% striking accuracy and 72% takedown defense.
  • Heavy hands, finishing instincts, and a 3–2 record over his last five fights.
• Underdog: Eryk Anders (+375)
  • Veteran power puncher with a 10/1 KO record, 80% takedown defense.
  • Recent highlight–reel TKO of Chris Weidman but mixed results overall.

Bettors seeking value may find Anders’s +375 line enticing, especially if they believe his experience can carry him past the early storm. Conversely, a conservative play on Duncan locks in a high-probability outcome, albeit with slimmer returns.

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Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For this matchup, BetOnline.ag offers the most competitive lines and deep liquidity. Their market responsiveness—demonstrated by the timely line updates—suggests they are attracting both casual and sharp action. If you’re placing a live or pre-fight wager, BetOnline.ag stands out as the go-to option for reliability and favorable odds.

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By examining both the betting odds and the subtle shifts in the moneyline, you can gauge where expert money is landing—and decide whether to back the heavy favorite or hunt for value on the resilient underdog.