Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez: UFC 318 Odds & AI Pick

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez fight analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, July 20, 2025, fight fans will descend upon the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, for a pivotal Welterweight clash on the main card of UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3. At approximately 10:00 PM ET, two of the division’s most entertaining and dynamic competitors—#14-ranked Kevin Holland and veteran contender Daniel Rodriguez—will lock horns in a five-round battle that carries significant momentum implications for both athletes.

As the betting markets currently stand, Kevin Holland enters the Octagon as the clear favorite, with moneyline odds of -350 at BetOnline.ag and -335 at BetRivers. Holland, known for his unorthodox striking, lightning-fast counters, and propensity to engage in grinding grappling spurts, will look to capitalize on his six-inch reach advantage and youthful athleticism. At 32 years old, “Trailblazer” Holland brings a professional record of 28-13-0, boasting 14 knockouts, 9 submissions, and an average fight time of 10:28.

On the other side stands the plucky underdog, Daniel “DC” Rodriguez, listed at +285 (BetOnline.ag) and +240 (BetRivers). A seasoned competitor at 38 years of age, Rodriguez carries a 19-5-0 ledger into this matchup, with 9 career finishes, including 5 first-round stoppages. Hailing from Los Angeles, Rodriguez has reinvented himself since debuting in February 2020, stringing together impressive performances—most notably his third-round KO of Santiago Ponzinibbio in May 2025. With a 49% significant strike accuracy and a wrestling background that delivers a 55% takedown success rate, Rodriguez has proven he can both outstrike and outgrapple high-level opposition.

This bout poses a compelling stylistic chess match. Holland’s 50% striking accuracy and high-volume attack will be tested by Rodriguez’s tightening defense (58% striking defense) and seasoned mat work. The question is whether Rodriguez can weather Holland’s early storm—his first-round finishes (13 total in Holland’s career) are a constant threat—or if Holland can dictate the pace, keep the fight standing, and exploit Rodriguez’s slightly waning durability against younger, fresher opponents.

For bettors and fight analysts alike, this contest represents a fascinating line movement story. Holland opened around -400 earlier in the week but has seen his odds shift slightly as Rodriguez’s value climbed from +330 to +285. Will “Trailblazer” reaffirm his divisional aspirations with a dominant performance, or can Rodriguez leverage his experience and veteran savvy to pull off yet another high-profile upset? All signs point to fireworks in New Orleans as the day’s action culminates in what promises to be a compelling encounter under the bright lights of the Smoothie King Center.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez: Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Kevin Holland Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Kung Fu

Background & Recent Form
“Trailblazer” Holland holds a professional record of 28-13-0, featuring 14 knockouts and 9 submissions. His last five UFC outings read:

• June 7, 2025: Loss vs. Vicente Luque (Decision)
• March 22, 2025: Win vs. Gunnar Nelson (Unanimous Decision)
• January 18, 2025: Loss vs. Reinier De Ridder (Submission, R1)
• October 5, 2024: Loss vs. Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1)
• June 1, 2024: Win vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Submission, R1)

Holland’s form has been inconsistent, alternating between spectacular finishes and tough setbacks. His dynamic striking arsenal, rooted in Kung Fu footwork, allows him to switch stances fluidly and mix head kicks with spinning attacks.

Key Statistics

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Significant Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Accuracy: 38%
• Takedown Defense: 55%
• First-Round Finishes: 13

Strengths

• Power & Creativity: Unpredictable strikes and heavy hands make him dangerous in all ranges.
• Submission Savvy: 9 career submission wins, capitalizing on scrambles and guillotine setups.
• Finishing Instinct: A propensity to hunt early finishes keeps opponents on edge.

Weaknesses

• Wrestling Consistency: Sub-40% takedown accuracy limits his control against strong grapplers.
• Defensive Gaps: Allows significant strikes at a 49% connect rate against him, leaving him vulnerable in high-volume exchanges.
• Fight IQ Fluctuations: At times, he overextends, leading to reversals or knockout losses.

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Daniel Rodriguez Profile

Age: 38
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle

Background & Recent Form
Rodriguez sports a 19-5-0 record, with 9 knockouts and 4 submissions. His last five fights include:

• May 3, 2025: Win vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (KO/TKO, R3)
• October 12, 2024: Win vs. Alex Morono (Split Decision)
• June 22, 2024: Loss vs. Kelvin Gastelum (Unanimous Decision)
• May 13, 2023: Loss vs. Ian Garry (KO/TKO, R1)
• November 5, 2022: Loss vs. Neil Magny (Submission, R3)

Rodriguez has rediscovered form with back-to-back wins, highlighted by a third-round stoppage of Ponzinibbio. At 38, he leverages experience and well-rounded skill sets to outwork younger foes.

Key Statistics

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 49%
• Significant Strike Defense: 58%
• Takedown Accuracy: 55%
• Takedown Defense: 63%
• First-Round Finishes: 5

Strengths

• Defensive Prowess: Shuts down strikes over half the time (58% defense), making him tough to crack.
• Wrestling Base: A 55% takedown success rate and strong 63% defense allow him to dictate grappling exchanges.
• Cardio & Durability: Reliable gas tank and veteran savvy to navigate deep waters.

Weaknesses

• Age-Related Decline: Waning reflexes could be exploited by Holland’s speed.
• Finishing Frequency: Only 5 first-round stoppages, suggesting reduced power early.
• Striking Output: Averages fewer significant strikes per minute compared to Holland, potentially losing volume battles.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

• Reach & Height: Holland holds a 6-inch arm reach advantage (81" vs. 74") and a 2-inch height edge, favoring his striking at range.
• Striking Exchange: Holland’s 50% accuracy meets Rodriguez’s 58% defense—this will determine if Holland can break through or if Rodriguez can counter effectively.
• Grappling Battle: Rodriguez enters with superior takedown numbers (55% vs. Holland’s 38%) and higher takedown defense (63% vs. 55%), setting up a potential wrestling-heavy affair.
• Pace & Durability: Holland’s faster average fight time (10:28) versus Rodriguez’s (11:36) underscores Holland’s urgency to finish; Rodriguez’s durability and cardio may carry him into the championship rounds.

This clash of styles—Holland’s explosive, creative offense against Rodriguez’s disciplined defense and wrestling—promises a compelling spectacle with momentum swings and strategic adjustments. Bettors and analysts alike will key in on the striking accuracy differentials and grappling success rates to project which fighter will dictate the action inside the Smoothie King Center.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, the moneyline odds for this Welterweight showdown stand as follows:

• Kevin Holland (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: –350
  • BetRivers: –335

• Daniel Rodriguez (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +285
  • BetRivers: +240

Holland is the clear favorite, commanding roughly a 75–77% implied probability, while Rodriguez trails as the underdog with an implied chance in the 25–30% range.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

• For backing Daniel Rodriguez, BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest price at +285, meaning your potential profit is maximized.
• For wagering on Kevin Holland, BetRivers is marginally superior at –335, giving you a slightly better return on your risk compared to BetOnline.ag’s –350.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

A look at the line movement over the past two weeks reveals:

Daniel Rodriguez (BetOnline.ag)

• July 4: +330
• July 6: +275
• July 9: +285

Daniel Rodriguez (BetRivers)

• July 9: +240

Kevin Holland (BetOnline.ag)

• July 4: –400
• July 6: –335
• July 9: –350

Kevin Holland (BetRivers)

• July 9: –335

Key takeaways:

• Holland opened as a stronger favorite at –400, then saw his line dip to –335 before stabilizing around –350, suggesting some late support for Rodriguez or slight hesitancy among Holland backers.
• Rodriguez briefly reached +275 before softening back to +285, indicating a surge of early underdog money or confidence in his upset potential.

These swings hint at responsive bettors reacting to training camp updates, weigh-in results, or tactical breakdowns favoring the underdog’s wrestling and durability.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at their best available line, here’s roughly what you’d see:

• Bet $1,000 on Daniel Rodriguez at +285 (BetOnline.ag)

  • Profit: $2,850
  • Total Return: $3,850

• Bet $1,000 on Kevin Holland at –335 (BetRivers)

  • Profit: $298 (approximately)
  • Total Return: $1,298

While Holland’s favorite status translates to a higher likelihood of victory (around 75–77%), the upside on Rodriguez is substantial if you believe in his experience, takedown prowess, and recent momentum.

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This matchup offers a classic favorite-versus-underdog narrative. Holland’s –350 tag underscores confidence in his athleticism and finishing ability, whereas Rodriguez’s +285 line invites bettors to back the veteran with high reward potential. Track further line shifts as fight week progresses—sharp money or late-breaking news could tilt the scales in either direction.