UFC 318: Prado vs Veretennikov – Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov Fight Analysis

As the Preliminary Card action heats up at UFC 318, two welterweight contenders will clash in the octagon on Sunday, July 20, 2025, at the famed Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Scheduled to kick off shortly after the early prelims, this battle promises fireworks early on one of the busiest nights of the summer fight calendar. The bout will serve as a key test for both athletes, each looking to stake their claim in the competitive 170-pound division.

Francisco Prado (12-3-0) steps into the cage as the slight betting favorite, priced at -140 on BetOnline.ag and -152 at BetRivers. The 22-year-old Argentine prospect has made waves with his fan-friendly style, combining an even split of knockouts (6) and submissions (6) in his dozen UFC wins. Despite two setbacks by unanimous decision to seasoned veterans Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber, Prado’s 9 first-round finishes and average fight time of just 12:16 speak to his violent efficiency and finishing instincts.

Opposite him, Nikolay Veretennikov (12-6-0) arrives as the underdog, listed at +120 on BetOnline.ag and +118 at BetRivers. The 35-year-old Sambo specialist from Kazakhstan made a memorable UFC debut last August, but has since dropped back-to-back decisions—including a second-round TKO loss to surging contender Austin Vanderford. Veretennikov compensates for his recent skid with power punching prowess (9 KO victories, 5 first-round finishes) and a sturdy takedown defense (57%), making him dangerous at any moment should he land clean.

This matchup presents a classic stylistic chess match: Prado’s grappling proficiency (6 submission wins, 9% takedown accuracy) and southpaw stance versus Veretennikov’s explosive knockout ability and upright striking. Prado will look to press the pace, mix levels and use his 3-inch reach advantage to keep the fight in grappling range. Veretennikov, meanwhile, must respect Prado’s submission game and counter with heavy sambo throws or explosive striking entries if he hopes to turn the tide.

From a betting perspective, Prado’s odds have shifted moderately in his favor over the past fortnight—opening at -120 (July 4) and sliding to -140 (July 9) on BetOnline.ag. Veretennikov’s line has ticked upward from even money to +120 in that same span, suggesting bettors are increasingly confident in the Argentine’s well-rounded skill set. Yet, with Veretennikov’s 56% significant strike defense and 5 first-round stoppages, the veteran can never be counted out.

All signs point toward an enthralling clash of youth versus experience, technique versus power. Whether Prado can impose his grappling blueprint or Veretennikov’s knockout threat reigns supreme, this bout will set the tone for the early prelims—so be sure to tune in and catch all the action live from New Orleans.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

Francisco Prado – The Young Argentine Prospect

• Age: 22
• Country: Argentina
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded grappler-striker hybrid

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights):

• Feb. 8, 2025 – Loss vs. Jake Matthews (Decision – Unanimous)
• Feb. 24, 2024 – Loss vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jul. 15, 2023 – Win vs. Ottman Azaitar (TKO – Round 1, 4:05)
• Feb. 11, 2023 – Loss vs. Jamie Mullarkey (Decision – Unanimous)

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: With 9 first-round stoppages in just 12 UFC victories, Prado boasts elite finishing ability. His split of 6 knockouts and 6 submissions underscores a versatile attack.
• Pace & Cardio: An average fight time of 12:16 indicates he can maintain a high output across two to three rounds, pressuring opponents relentlessly.
• Significant Strike Defense (56%): Above-average defense allows him to navigate inside strikes and set up takedown or clinch entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (25%): Far below the divisional average, Prado is susceptible to elite grapplers who can exploit his wrestling.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (41%): A middling output suggests he may struggle to land clean power shots against elusive strikers.
• Decision Record: Three of his last four fights have gone the distance (and ended in losses), raising questions about his ability to adapt mid-fight when early finishes don’t materialize.

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Nikolay Veretennikov – The Veteran Sambo Specialist

• Age: 35
• Country: Kazakhstan (Born in Ukraine)
• Fighting Style: Sambo-based striker

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

• Feb. 22, 2025 – Loss vs. Austin Vanderford (TKO – Round 2, 4:13)
• Aug. 10, 2024 – Loss vs. Danny Barlow (Decision)
• Aug. 10, 2024 (UFC Debut) – Win oversaw in prospect circuit, not UFC

Strengths

• Power Striking: Boasting 9 knockout victories, Veretennikov packs one-punch knockout potential, particularly dangerous in the first round (5 early finishes).
• Significant Strike Accuracy (56%): Above-average precision means he makes opponents pay for mistakes.
• Takedown Defense (57%): While not elite, it’s sufficient to keep the fight upright against fighters with modest wrestling resumes.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (0%): Unable to secure a single takedown in the UFC, his Sambo pedigree has yet to translate into cage grappling success.
• Significant Strike Defense (49%): Below-average defense could leave him open to volume strikers who mix level changes effectively.
• Age & Fight Mileage: At 35 with 18 professional bouts, wear-and-tear and cardio in later rounds may become factors against younger, relentless foes.

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Head-to-Head Overview

This clash pits Prado’s youth, pace, and submission creativity against Veretennikov’s veteran power and Sambo roots. Prado must shore up his takedown defense and sharpen striking accuracy to avoid Veretennikov’s power punches. Conversely, Nikolay needs to stay composed, use leg kicks to slow Prado’s forward momentum, and look for one-shot opportunities early. Styles make fights, and this one’s a textbook grappler-striker contrast—expect fireworks.

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

• Francisco Prado: –140 (BetOnline.ag) | –152 (BetRivers)
• Nikolay Veretennikov: +120 (BetOnline.ag) | +118 (BetRivers)

Francisco Prado enters this matchup as the clear favorite, trading around –140 at BetOnline.ag and drifting to –152 at BetRivers. Nikolay Veretennikov is the underdog, priced at +120 on BetOnline.ag and slightly shorter at +118 on BetRivers. The widest gap—almost $1.30 in implied payout for every $1 staked—shows where sharp money and public action currently lie. For bettors looking for the best lines, BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest odds on both sides: –140 on Prado and +120 on Veretennikov.

Line Movement & Notable Swings

A close look at the line history reveals significant shifts over the two weeks leading up to fight night.

• Francisco Prado (BetOnline.ag):
– Jul. 4 (14:20) opened at –120
– Quickly shortened to –170 by Jul. 4 (19:20)
– Peaked heavy favorite at –175 on Jul. 5 (07:00)
– Drifted back to –140 by Jul. 9 (08:00)

• Nikolay Veretennikov (BetOnline.ag):
– Jul. 4 (14:20) opened at even money (+100)
– Steep underdog peak at +150 on Jul. 5 (07:00)
– Climbed back to +120 by Jul. 9 (08:00)

These swings suggest early confidence in Prado—driving his line down from –120 to –175—before a slight backlash pushed him back to –140. Veretennikov’s odds mirror that arc in reverse: from +100 to +150, then settling at +120 as bettors saw value in fading the heavy favorite. BetRivers shows a similar pattern, but with slightly more conservative pricing (–180 to –152 on Prado; +140 to +118 on Veretennikov).

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Probabilities

• Betting $1,000 on Francisco Prado at –140 (BetOnline.ag) returns $1,714 (profit of $714).
• Betting $1,000 on Nikolay Veretennikov at +120 (BetOnline.ag) returns $2,200 (profit of $1,200).

Based on these odds, Prado carries roughly a 58% chance to win according to the market, while Veretennikov checks in around 45% (implied probabilities include the sportsbook’s built-in juice).

Key Takeaways for Bettors

1. Favorite vs. Underdog: Prado’s status as the favorite is backed by a flurry of early bets and high-profile supporters, but Veretennikov’s power and veteran savvy keep him firmly in play.
2. Best Value: BetOnline.ag currently offers the strongest lines for both fighters, giving bettors the widest margin between favorite and underdog.
3. Line Movement Signals: The initial rush on Prado suggests early sharp money, while the subsequent pullback indicates public caution or smart contrarian action on Veretennikov.

With both lines still in flux through fight week, bettors who move quickly can lock in the best prices. Whether you side with Prado’s grappling versatility or Veretennikov’s knockout upside, understanding these odds dynamics will be crucial to maximizing your potential return.