UFC 318 Preview: Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski Odds & Picks

Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, July 19, 2025, fight fans will be treated to an intriguing Heavyweight showdown as Ryan Spann squares off against Lukasz Brzeski on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3. The bout is slated to begin at 10:15 PM UTC (approximately 5:15 PM CDT local time) inside the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. With a stacked evening of action culminating in the trilogy main event between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier, Spann vs. Brzeski promises fireworks early, as two contrasting styles collide under the bright lights of “The Big Easy.”

As the fight approaches, Ryan Spann enters as the clear favorite, with sportsbooks listing him around -240 (BetRivers) to -235 (BetOnline.ag) on the moneyline. The American veteran, known for his formidable submission game and first-round finishing ability, boasts an extensive record of 22 wins, 11 losses, and a remarkable 16 first-round finishes across a career that dates back to his UFC debut in July 2017. At 33 years old, “Superman” Spann brings a well-rounded arsenal to the cage: 6 knockouts, 13 submissions, and an average fight time of just 5 minutes 36 seconds. Standing 77 inches tall with a 79-inch reach, his blend of wrestling prowess and grappling expertise makes him a daunting task for any newcomer to the division.

On paper, Spann’s opponent, Lukasz Brzeski, steps in as the underdog, carrying betting odds of +180 (BetRivers) to +200 (BetOnline.ag). The 32-year-old Pole is a seasoned striker with a 9-6-1 professional record, highlighted by 6 knockouts and a penchant for explosive starts—including 3 first-round stoppages. Brzeski’s journey to the Octagon has been marked by flashes of heavy-hitting potential, but inconsistency at this level has been his Achilles’ heel. Averaging just over 10 minutes per outing, with significant strike accuracy at 50% but a takedown defense of 37%, the question is whether his power can neutralize Spann’s grappling before the fight hits the mat.

While Spann’s recent performances have included tough losses—most recently a second-round TKO defeat to Waldo Cortes Acosta in March 2025—he remains a formidable grappler who can turn the tide with a single submission attempt. Brzeski, meanwhile, is on a two-fight skid but will lean on his striking pedigree and southpaw stance to keep Spann at bay. With the pair eyeing a statement victory that could catapult them toward the top 15 in the division, this clash promises high stakes despite its early slot on the card.

In this fight breakdown, we’ll examine the key metrics, striking exchanges, grappling scenarios, and betting angles you need to know to make an informed pick. Whether you’re backing the heavy favorite to impose his wrestling or banking on the Polish puncher to score an upset, our analysis will equip you with actionable insights ahead of this heavyweight battle in New Orleans.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Fighter Backgrounds

Ryan “Superman” Spann

• Age: 33
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA specialist with elite submission skills
• Physical Attributes: 77″ height, 249 lb walking weight, 79″ arm reach
• UFC Debut: July 25, 2017

Lukasz “Dragon” Brzeski

• Age: 32
• Country: Poland
• Fighting Style: Power striker with a stand-up arsenal
• Physical Attributes: 75″ height, 234 lb walking weight, 78″ arm reach
• UFC Debut: August 13, 2022

Recent Form

Ryan Spann (Last 5 Fights):

1. Mar. 15, 2025 – Loss vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (KO/TKO, R2 4:48)
2. Oct. 5, 2024 – Win vs. Ovince Saint Preux (Submission, R1 1:35)
3. Apr. 27, 2024 – Loss vs. Bogdan Guskov (KO/TKO, R2 3:16)
4. Aug. 26, 2023 – Loss vs. Anthony Smith (Decision - Split)
5. Mar. 11, 2023 – Loss vs. Nikita Krylov (Submission, R1 3:38)

Spann is 1–4 in his last five, but his lone win over veteran Ovince Saint Preux showcased his dangerous grappling and first-round finishing prowess. His recent losses, however, highlight lapses in striking defense and occasional susceptibility to heavy hitters.

Lukasz Brzeski (Last 5 Fights):

1. Dec. 7, 2024 – Loss vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (KO/TKO, R1 4:51)
2. Jul. 27, 2024 – Loss vs. Mick Parkin (KO/TKO, R1 3:23)
3. Apr. 6, 2024 – Win vs. Valter Walker (Decision - Unanimous)
4. Aug. 26, 2023 – Loss vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (KO/TKO, R1 3:01)
5. Mar. 11, 2023 – Loss vs. Karl Williams (Decision - Unanimous)

Brzeski is also 1–4 in his last five bouts. His recent performances underline his ability to go the distance (securing a unanimous decision) but also reveal a concerning trend of first-round knockouts against him.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Ryan Spann

Strengths:

• Submission Prowess: Holds 13 submission wins; will aggressively attack grappling exchanges.
• Finishing Instinct: 16 first-round finishes; quick to exploit openings.
• Takedown Defense (52%): Can neutralize wrestlers and scramble back to his feet.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (43%): Below-average at avoiding significant strikes; vulnerable to heavy hitters like Brzeski.
• Durability Concerns: Knocked out in two of his last three losses; chin may be tested.
• Inconsistency: 1–4 skid points to mental lapses or strategic miscues in high-pressure moments.

Lukasz Brzeski

Strengths:

• Striking Power & Accuracy: 50% significant strike accuracy; six career KOs reflect one-punch knockout potential.
• Aggressive Starts: Three first-round finishes; looks to overwhelm opponents early.
• Reach & Southpaw Stance: 78″ reach combined with southpaw angles can frustrate orthodox fighters.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (37%): Grapplers like Spann are likely to shoot and control him on the ground.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 10:01 suggests slower pace in later rounds, inviting grappling pressure.
• Inconsistent Defense: 55% significant strike defense is middling; can be out-struck by volume strikers.

How Styles Clash

• Ground Game vs. Stand-up Power: Spann’s strength lies in takedowns and submissions, whereas Brzeski lives to trade leather and hunt early knockouts.
• Pace & Endurance: Spann thrives in grappling exchanges over multiple rounds if he avoids Brzeski’s early blitz; Brzeski must finish fast or risk a grinding ground battle.
• Strategic Edge: Control the location of the fight—Spann will seek the mat; Brzeski must keep it standing with footwork, jabs, and overhands.

This matchup pits a grappling finisher with submission pedigree against a dangerous knockout artist. Understanding each fighter’s recent struggles and statistical tendencies is crucial for predicting whether Brzeski can land the early big shot or if Spann will drag the Pole into deep waters and finish him.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As we gear up for Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski, the sportsbooks have installed Spann as a sizable favorite, with moneylines around -240 (BetRivers) and -235 (BetOnline.ag). His ground-and-pound pedigree and submission prowess make him the betting chalk. Conversely, Brzeski sits firmly in underdog territory at +180 (BetRivers) to +200 (BetOnline.ag), reflecting both his heavy-hitting upside and questions about his durability against a wrestler like Spann.

• Favorite: Ryan Spann (–240 to –235)
• Underdog: Lukasz Brzeski (+180 to +200)
• Best Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag offers the sharpest lines for both fighters (–235 on Spann, +200 on Brzeski), giving bettors the most favorable payouts.

Line Movement & Betting Trends

A look at the line history reveals meaningful swings over the past 36 hours:

• BetRivers
  • Brzeski: Opened at +200 on July 8 → Firmed to +180 by July 9
  • Spann: Opened at –265 on July 8 → Shorted to –240 by July 9

• BetOnline.ag
  • Brzeski: Opened at +215 on July 8 → Moved to +200 by July 9
  • Spann: Opened at –255 on July 8 → Shorted to –235 by July 9

These shifts indicate unusual wager volume on the Pole, as many books are trimming his underdog juice. Simultaneously, Spann’s line has softened slightly, suggesting balanced or contrarian action on him. No dramatic “steam” moves, but steady support for Brzeski has pushed him closer to a 3-to-1 payout, while Spann’s edge has been pared back from a 5-to-1 favorite to around 2.4-to-1.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re backing Spann at the –235 best line for $1,000, your total return would be approximately $1,425 (profit of $425). Betting Brzeski at +200 for $1,000 would yield $3,000 back (profit of $2,000).

Without getting lost in formulas, those numbers translate roughly to:

• Spann carries about a 70% chance to win.
• Brzeski sits near a 33% upset probability.

Betting Angles to Consider

• Underdog Support: Steady line compression on Brzeski suggests public and sharp money sees real knockout potential in Round 1.
• Value on the Favorite: Spann’s grappling acumen and 16 first-round finishes make him a strong pick for bettors who prefer a grind-out victory.
• Where to Shop Lines: BetOnline.ag, by moving Brzeski from +215 to +200 and Spann from –255 to –235, still offers the highest upside for underdog backers and the smallest juice for favorite bettors.

By monitoring this steady line movement, you can decide whether to buy Brzeski at the shorter +180 price on BetRivers or wait for a slight regression toward +200. Meanwhile, shoppers for Spann should lock in at –235 before books adjust him toward –220 if momentum continues.