Whittaker vs de Ridder > Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal > Fight Analysis

Salikhov vs Leal UFC Betting Analysis & AI Pick

Salikhov vs Leal UFC Betting Analysis & AI Pick

Published

Mon Jul 14 2025

Last Updated

Mon Jul 14 2025

Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal fight analysis

Introduction

Get ready, fight fans: on Saturday, July 26, 2025, at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, the UFC’s welterweight division heats up early on the preliminary card when Muslim Salikhov collides with Carlos Leal. Scheduled for a 16:00 UTC start time (approximately 8:00 p.m. local Gulf Standard Time), this three-round affair kicks off the action at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder. While the evening’s headliners vie for division supremacy, all eyes will be on this stylistic clash of veteran striker versus rising knockout specialist.

Carlos Leal enters as the clear favorite, with sportsbooks like DraftKings and Caesars posting opening odds around –330 to –355, reflecting tremendous confidence in his recent surge. Leal (22-6-0) has been nearly unstoppable since his UFC debut in October 2024, boasting a highlight-reel knockout of Alex Morono in March and showcasing precision striking that has produced 10 first-round finishes over his career. His 51% significant strike accuracy, combined with a stout 90% takedown defense, makes him a nightmare for opponents who hope to slow down the pace. At just 30 years old, the Brazilian powerhouse continues to refine his craft and climb toward welterweight prominence.

On the other side, Muslim Salikhov is firmly cast as the underdog, with underdog money paying out at roughly +260 to +280 across top U.S. books. Despite trading a few setbacks in 2023 and early 2024, the Russian striker remains a dangerous veteran with 14 career knockouts, including a devastating first-round finish of Song Kenan last November. Known as “The King of Kung Fu,” Salikhov brings a unique blend of unorthodox striking, exceptional kickboxing pedigree and a 50% significant strike accuracy that can turn any opening into a finish. At 40 years old, he may be the elder statesman in the cage, but his veteran savvy and hunger to upset the odds make him a live dog on the feet.

Beyond mere numbers, this match-up pits Leal’s methodical power punching and takedown immunity against Salikhov’s diverse striking arsenal and veteran fight IQ. Will Leal’s momentum and youth prevail, or can Salikhov shock the crowd with a well-timed kick or knee? Bettors will want to consider each man’s recent form, finishing proclivity, and how their contrasting approaches might produce fireworks under the bright lights of Abu Dhabi. In a night full of must-watch bouts, the Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal clash promises to deliver high-octane action and potentially shake up the welterweight landscape.

Stay tuned as we break down the styles, strengths, and tactical keys that will determine who walks away victorious under the desert sky.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Muslim Salikhov: The Veteran “King of Kung Fu”

Age: 40 | Country: Russia | Fighting Style: Kickboxing-based Striker

Background
Muslim Salikhov is one of the UFC’s longest-serving welterweights, making his promotional debut in November 2017. Nicknamed “The King of Kung Fu,” Salikhov combines lightning-fast kicks and unorthodox striking from his extensive Sanda and kickboxing pedigree.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

  • Nov. 23, 2024: Win via KO/TKO (Song Kenan) – Round 1, 3:49
  • July 13, 2024: Win via Split Decision (Santiago Ponzinibbio) – Round 3, 5:00
  • Feb. 03, 2024: Loss via KO/TKO (Randy Brown) – Round 1, 3:17
  • June 17, 2023: Loss via Decision – Unanimous (Nicolas Dalby) – Round 3, 5:00
  • Nov. 19, 2022: Win via KO/TKO (Andre Fialho) – Round 3, 1:03

Strengths

  • Finishing Prowess: 14 career knockouts and 14 first-round finishes reflect elite stoppage power.
  • Striking Defense (63%): Salikhov effectively slips and counters significant strikes.
  • Takedown Offense (32% accuracy): Above-average wrestling entries keep opponents guessing.
  • Veteran Fight IQ: Experience at 40 allows him to adjust mid-fight and exploit openings.

Weaknesses

  • Takedown Defense (72%): Vulnerable to high-level wrestlers and grapplers who pressure him.
  • Age and Cardio: Longer fights may tax his gas tank; average fight time is 10:24, slightly above divisional norm.
  • Inconsistency: Two losses in his last five indicate potential lapses in defensive responsibility.

Carlos Leal: The Rising Brazilian Powerhouse

Age: 30 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Pure Striker

Background
Carlos Leal burst onto the UFC scene in October 2024 and quickly established himself as a knockout artist. Armed with heavy hands and a granite chin, he represents the new wave of Brazilian stand-up specialists in the welterweight ranks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

  • Mar. 08, 2025: Win via KO/TKO (Alex Morono) – Round 1, 4:16
  • Oct. 26, 2024: Loss via Decision – Unanimous (Rinat Fakhretdinov) – Round 3, 5:00
  • Pre-UFC (selected): 8-fight win streak with 6 finishes, showcasing elite power and confidence.

Strengths

  • Takedown Defense (90%): Virtually negates opponent wrestling, keeping the fight standing.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (51%): Converts over half of his attempted strikes into landed blows.
  • First-Round Killer: 10 career first-round finishes prove he’s dangerous early.
  • Youth and Durability: At 30, Leal combines athletic peak with a durable chin and strong gas tank.

Weaknesses

  • Striking Defense (53%): Below-average defense leaves him open to counters and leg kicks.
  • Takedown Offense (25% accuracy): Rarely pursues grappling exchanges, limiting his adaptability.
  • Limited UFC Sample: Only two fights under the bright lights, so ring rust or pressure could surface.

Style Clash and Key Pivots

This fight will hinge on whether Leal’s takedown immunity neutralizes Salikhov’s wrestling attempts and forces a high-pace striking battle. Salikhov must vary his attack—mixing kicks, knees and feints—to crack Leal’s defense, while Leal will look to establish heavy hands early, exploiting any defensive gaps. In a classic striker vs. striker match-up, footwork, pace and fight IQ will determine who imposes their will over three decisive rounds.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As fight night approaches, Carlos Leal is firmly installed as the favorite, while Muslim Salikhov remains the underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the most competitive odds across major U.S. sportsbooks:

  • Carlos Leal:
    • Caesars: –330
    • DraftKings: –355
    • BetMGM: –325 ← Best price for the favorite
    • BetRivers: –345
    • BetOnline.ag: –335

  • Muslim Salikhov:
    • Caesars: +260
    • DraftKings: +280 ← Best price for the underdog
    • BetMGM: +260
    • BetRivers: +250
    • BetOnline.ag: +275

That gap—roughly 3.2:1 on average—underscores the market’s belief that Leal’s combination of power and takedown defense gives him a significant edge. Salikhov’s higher payouts reflect his role as the live dog in this contest.

Line Movement and Swing Analysis

Tracking how odds have shifted reveals where the smart money is going:

  • Carlos Leal (BetOnline.ag):
    • July 10: –400 → July 13: –340 → July 14 (03:01 UTC): –315 → July 14 (09:00 UTC): –335
    The line opened deep on Leal, then shortened significantly as bettors recognized his UFC momentum, before evening out just ahead of fight week.

  • Carlos Leal (DraftKings):
    • July 13: –345 → July 14: –355
    The favorite saw another tick in his favor, suggesting fresh bullish bets on his striking matchup.

  • Muslim Salikhov (BetOnline.ag):
    • July 10: +330 → July 13: +280 → July 14 (03:01): +265 → July 14 (09:00): +275
    Salikhov’s line first drew steam as insiders backed the veteran’s resume, then eased back slightly with the bulk of public wagers on Leal.

  • Muslim Salikhov (DraftKings):
    • July 13: +275 → July 14: +280
    A minor adjustment higher for the underdog, offering one of the night’s best values.

Overall, significant swings occurred mid-July—Leal briefly traded at a prohibitive –400, while Salikhov flirted with +330. As more tickets poured in, the books balanced liabilities, settling around today’s levels.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts

If you laid down $1,000 right now:

  • On Carlos Leal at –325 (BetMGM): you’d collect about $1,307 back (your stake plus roughly $307 profit).
  • On Muslim Salikhov at +280 (DraftKings): you’d walk away with around $3,800 total (your $1,000 plus $2,800 profit).

Implied Win Probabilities

Based on these odds, the market is pricing:

  • Carlos Leal to win at roughly 75% likelihood.
  • Muslim Salikhov is seen as a 25% chance or so to pull off the upset.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

  • For backing Carlos Leal, BetMGM’s –325 line is the most generous favorite price.
  • For betting Muslim Salikhov, DraftKings’ +280 underdog odds deliver the highest payout potential.

Whether you ride with the chalk or chase the upset, understanding line movement and leveraging the sharpest odds can be the difference between a winning evening and a missed opportunity. Good luck!

AI Pick: Carlos Leal

Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Carlos Leal, or see all the AI picks for Whittaker vs de Ridder. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.

Written byJackson 'The Sharp' Martinez

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