Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva Odds & AI Pick | UFC Fight Preview

Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva fight analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for Saturday, September 13, 2025, because the Featherweight division lights up the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, when Diego Lopes takes on Jean Silva on the UFC Fight Night main card. The bout is officially slated for the 9 p.m. CT broadcast—making it one of the evening’s most anticipated clashes. With both men hailing from Brazil and boasting dynamic finishing abilities, this contest promises fireworks from the opening bell.

Jean Silva enters as the clear favorite, carrying odds of –250 to –260 across major sportsbooks such as Caesars, DraftKings, BetRivers, FanDuel and BetOnline.ag. Silva’s rapid ascent has been nothing short of sensational: he owns a 16–2–0 record, including 12 knockouts and 9 first-round finishes, and he’s coming off back-to-back highlight-reel victories over Bryce Mitchell (Submission, Round 2) and Melsik Baghdasaryan (KO/TKO, Round 1). At 28 years old, Silva has already cornerstones of his game—superior striking (52% significant-strike accuracy) paired with a rock-solid takedown defense (86%)—that make him a nightmare matchup for any opponent at 145 lb.

On the other side stands Diego Lopes, the underdog at +190 to +210 depending on your book. The #3-ranked contender boasts a 26–7–0 record with a submission pedigree (12 submission wins) built on his world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Lopes is no stranger to high-stakes affairs; his last outing saw him go the distance with Alexander Volkanovski—only to come up short by unanimous decision in a grueling five-round title fight. Despite that setback, he remains one of the division’s most well-rounded threats, averaging over 10 minutes of octagon time per fight and securing 15 first-round finishes throughout his career. His takedown accuracy (40%) and submission IQ could prove pivotal if he can get Silva to the mat.

This contest is also a battle of styles: Silva’s ferocious striking versus Lopes’s grappling artistry. Will Silva overwhelm Lopes with pinpoint power and pace, or can Lopes weather the storm, drag the fight to the canvas, and impose his ground game? As the fight nears, oddsmakers have steadily sharpened their lines to reflect Silva’s hot streak, while bettors hunting value are eyeing Lopes’s +200 range as a potential high-upside play.

In this breakdown, we’ll delve deeper into each fighter’s strengths and weaknesses, recent form, stylistic matchup, historical odds movement, and expert picks. But for now, one thing is clear: when these two Brazilian warriors face off in San Antonio, the Featherweight division’s hierarchy could be forever altered. Strap in for what promises to be a must-watch affair under the Texas lights.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Jean Silva Profile

Background

• Age: 28
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker

Recent Form
Jean Silva has surged to prominence on a five-fight win streak in the UFC Featherweight division:

• April 12, 2025: Def. Bryce Mitchell – Submission (Round 2, 3:52)
• Feb. 22, 2025: Def. Melsik Baghdasaryan – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:15)
• July 13, 2024: Def. Drew Dober – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage, Round 3, 1:28)
• June 29, 2024: Def. Charles Jourdain – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:22)
• Jan. 13, 2024: Def. Westin Wilson – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:12)

Strengths

• Elite Striking Power: 12 of his 16 UFC wins have come by knockout, with a 52% significant‐strike accuracy.
• Quick Finisher: Boasts 9 first‐round stoppages and an average fight time of 8:22, indicating he overwhelms opponents early.
• Stout Defense: Defends 86% of takedown attempts, making him difficult to grapple.

Weaknesses

• Limited Grappling Threat: Zero submission victories suggest a one‐dimensional ground game.
• Potential Durability Concerns: While Silva defends takedowns well, longer fights could expose cardio or tactical gaps beyond the early rounds.

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Diego Lopes Profile

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Recent Form
Lopes arrives with a 4–1 record over his last five outings, including a five-round title bid:

• April 12, 2025: Lost to Alexander Volkanovski – Decision (Unanimous, 5×5:00)
• Sept. 14, 2024: Def. Brian Ortega – Decision (Unanimous, 3×5:00)
• June 29, 2024: Def. Dan Ige – Decision (Unanimous, 3×5:00)
• April 13, 2024: Def. Sodiq Yusuff – KO/TKO (Round 1, 1:29)
• Nov. 11, 2023: Def. Pat Sabatini – KO/TKO (Round 1, 1:30)

Strengths

• Submission Specialist: 12 submission wins on his 26‐win ledger, backed by a 40% takedown accuracy.
• Durable and Versatile: Averages 10:36 in the Octagon, showing strong cardio in prolonged battles.
• Well-Rounded Finisher: Combines 10 knockouts with 15 first‐round finishes, keeping opponents off-balance.

Weaknesses

• Striking Vulnerability: His 47% significant‐strike defense is below par, and accuracy sits at 47%, making him susceptible in stand-up exchanges.
• Takedown Defense: At 68%, opponents with crafty wrestlers could exploit openings.

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Matchup Breakdown

This clash pits Silva’s explosive striking against Lopes’s grappling arsenal. Silva will look to end the fight early, leveraging his power and takedown defense to keep the bout standing. Conversely, Lopes will attempt to neutralize Silva’s offense by dragging him into deep waters—utilizing his submission pedigree and superior endurance.

Key questions:

• Can Silva land early bombs before Lopes locks in a takedown?
• Will Lopes’s ground game expose Silva’s lack of submission experience?
• How will the pace and distance management play out over three rounds?

By contrasting Silva’s high‐octane offense with Lopes’s durability and grappling craft, this bout underscores a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. Bettors and fans alike should monitor Silva’s finishing runs and Lopes’s ability to survive the early storm when making their predictions.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of September 1, 2025, the betting market firmly positions Jean Silva as the favorite and Diego Lopes as the underdog:

• Jean Silva:

  • Caesars: –260
  • DraftKings: –250
  • BetRivers: –250
  • FanDuel: –250
  • BetOnline.ag: –250

• Diego Lopes:

  • Caesars: +210
  • DraftKings: +205
  • BetRivers: +195
  • FanDuel: +190
  • BetOnline.ag: +210

Silva’s best available price sits at –250 (DraftKings, BetRivers, FanDuel, BetOnline.ag), while Lopes commands a top underdog line of +210 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag). If you’re shopping around, DraftKings and BetOnline.ag currently offer the most favorable lines for both fighters: –250 on Silva and +210 on Lopes, respectively.

Line Movement and Swing Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals significant early-market shifts:

• Jean Silva opened at –192 on DraftKings (Aug. 16), rapidly shortening to –230 and then –250 by Aug. 17. The largest move came when the line dipped to –265 on Sept. 1 before settling back to –250. This indicates heavy money backing Silva as bettors reacted to his string of highlight finishes.

• Diego Lopes began the DraftKings market at +160, lengthening to +205 within 12 hours (Aug. 17). His line peaked at +215 overnight (Sept. 1) before easing back to +205. Similar trends occurred at BetRivers (+155 → +190) and FanDuel (+150 → +190). This drift suggests late action against Lopes’s chances or sharper money targeting Silva.

These swings highlight two key takeaways:

1. Sharp bettors quickly favored Silva after the fight announcement, driving his line north of –250.
2. Value-seekers on Lopes have seen plus-money expand into the +200s, making underdog tickets increasingly appealing.

Underdog vs. Favorite: Potential Payouts

If you’ve got $1,000 to wager, here’s what you’d walk away with:

• Jean Silva at –250 (best price):

  • Profit: $400
  • Total Return: $1,400

• Diego Lopes at +210 (best price):

  • Profit: $2,100
  • Total Return: $3,100

Implied Probabilities

Without diving into the math, the market suggests:

• Silva holds roughly a 70–72% chance to win.
• Lopes sits near a 32–34% chance as the underdog.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For favorite tickets, DraftKings and BetRivers share the top spot on Silva at –250. For underdog value, BetOnline.ag and Caesars lead with +210 on Lopes. Always compare lines across multiple sportsbooks to lock in the best possible odds before placing your wager.

In summary, the betting community has clearly gravitated toward Jean Silva’s dynamic striking, while Diego Lopes continues to offer a tantalizing payout at plus-money. Whether you’re backing the heavy favorite or chasing the underdog’s potential upset, understanding these line movements and available odds will be critical in maximizing your return.