Fares Ziam vs Kaue Fernandes Odds & Analysis | UFC Paris

Fares Ziam vs Kaue Fernandes fight analysis

Fight Details

On Saturday, September 6, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC (local time 9:00 PM CEST), the Accor Arena in Paris, France will host one of the most intriguing Lightweight scraps on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho. Positioned as the co-feature bout, this five-round meeting between Fares Ziam and Kaue Fernandes promises fireworks, as two contrasting styles collide under the bright lights of one of Europe’s premier combat sports venues. Fight fans tuning in worldwide can catch the action via UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+, and local broadcast partners.

Spotlight on the Favorite and the Underdog

Heading into fight week, Fares Ziam enters as the clear favorite. Across leading sportsbooks — Caesars has him at -300, BetUS at -350, and DraftKings at -298 — the Frenchman’s status reflects his 17–4–0 professional record, superior striking defense (65%), and credible 41% takedown accuracy. At just 27 years old, Ziam has made a name for himself with a methodical kickboxing base, durable chin, and well-rounded grappling acumen. His journey since debuting in September 2019 has included key victories over the likes of Matt Frevola (KO/TKO in round three) and Mike Davis (unanimous decision).

On the other side of the Octagon stands Kaue Fernandes, the underdog, priced at +240 (Caesars) to +285 (BetOnline.ag), who brings an unorthodox freestyle wrestling pedigree coupled with six submission wins. The 30-year-old Brazilian is riding a two-fight win streak after bouncing back from a split-decision loss to Marc Diakiese in November 2023. Fernandes’ tenacity is reflected in his 50% significant strike accuracy and perfect 100% defense against takedowns to date in the UFC. With four first-round finishes on his résumé, he’ll be eager to test Ziam’s famed chin early and avoid letting this favorite dictate the pace.

Why This Bout Matters

This clash is more than just a co-main attraction—it’s a litmus test for both men. Ziam needs a definitive win to solidify his climb toward a top-15 ranking in the crowded Lightweight division, while Fernandes sees a potential breakout performance on European soil. The stylistic contrast—French kickboxing precision versus Brazilian grappling aggression—offers bettors a clear narrative: will Ziam outstrike and outlast his opponent over 15 minutes, or can Fernandes force the action, secure a takedown, and hunt for a submission upset?

Stay tuned as we break down striking metrics, grappling scenarios, and prop-bet opportunities in the full Fares Ziam vs Kaue Fernandes fight breakdown. Whether you’re backing the chalk or chasing value on the dog, this contest is set to deliver high-octane action and pivotal implications in the Lightweight hierarchy.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Fares Ziam vs Kaue Fernandes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Fares Ziam: The French Kickboxing Technician

Age: 27
Country: France
Fighting Style: Kickboxer
Physical Attributes:

• Height: 73 in
• Weight: 156 lb
• Arm Reach: 75 in
• Leg Reach: 42 in

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts)

1. Feb. 1, 2025 – Win vs. Mike Davis (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Sept. 28, 2024 – Win vs. Matt Frevola (KO/TKO, Round 3, 2:59)
3. Feb. 24, 2024 – Win vs. Claudio Puelles (Decision – Split)
4. July 22, 2023 – Win vs. Jai Herbert (Decision – Unanimous)
5. Sept. 3, 2022 – Win vs. Michal Figlak (Decision – Unanimous)

Ziam enters this bout riding a five-fight winning streak in the UFC Lightweight division. His victories over established contenders like Frevola showcase a blend of power striking and tactical patience, often waiting for late-fight openings rather than chasing early finishes.

Statistical Strengths

• Significant Strike Defense (65%): Among the best in the division, Ziam effectively neutralizes opponents’ offense, forcing them to overcommit.
• Takedown Defense (70%): His sprawls and underhooks make him difficult to control on the ground, allowing him to keep the fight standing.
• Reach Advantage: A 75-inch arm span gives him the jab and kick range to pick opponents apart at distance.

Potential Vulnerabilities

• Finishing Rate: Just 10 of his 21 wins (6 KOs, 4 subs) came by finish, and he averages over 13 minutes per fight—he can be outworked in scrambles.
• Wrestling Offense (41% TD Accuracy): While respectable, he attempts takedowns less frequently than elite grapplers, potentially allowing a strong wrestler to dictate pace.

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Kaue Fernandes: The Brazilian Submission Artist

Age: 30
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestler
Physical Attributes:

• Height: 69 in
• Weight: 155 lb
• Arm Reach: 73 in
• Leg Reach: 40 in

Recent Form (Last 3 UFC Bouts)

1. March 22, 2025 – Win vs. Guram Kutateladze (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Aug. 3, 2024 – Win vs. Mohammad Yahya (KO/TKO, Round 1, 4:45)
3. Nov. 4, 2023 – Loss vs. Marc Diakiese (Decision – Split)

Fernandes bounced back from his only UFC defeat with two decisive victories, showcasing both his finishing instincts and evolving striking game. His unanimous-decision win over Kutateladze highlighted improved cardio and cage control across 15 minutes.

Statistical Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 12 career stoppages (6 KOs, 6 submissions) in just 10 wins; capable of ending the fight early.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (50%): A solid striking foundation allows him to set up takedowns and submissions.
• First-Round Finishes (8): His best work often comes in the opening frame, when he can overwhelm opponents with pace.

Potential Vulnerabilities

• Significant Strike Defense (29%): One of the lowest marks in the division, leaving him susceptible to counters and volume strikers like Ziam.
• Grappling Data Ambiguity: Official UFC stats list 0% takedown accuracy and defense—likely due to limited recorded attempts—raising questions about his ability to control elite wrestlers.
• Average Fight Time (4:50): Tendency toward early finishes means he may struggle in grinder-style, late-round scenarios against durable foes.

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Matchup Snapshot:
This bout pits Ziam’s technical kickboxing and elite defensive metrics against Fernandes’ explosive finishing prowess. Ziam will look to keep the fight at range, punish Fernandes’ flawed defense, and lean on his cardio in championship rounds. Conversely, Fernandes must force scrambles, lean on his wrestling roots, and hunt for an early finish before Ziam finds his rhythm. Strategies and adjustments on fight night will determine whether the favorite’s polish prevails or the underdog’s aggression upends expectations.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Fares Ziam sits comfortably as the favorite, while Kaue Fernandes remains the underdog across major sportsbooks:

• Fares Ziam

  • Caesars: -300
  • BetUS: -350
  • BetOnline.ag: -350
  • DraftKings: -298
  • BetRivers: -265

• Kaue Fernandes

  • Caesars: +240
  • BetUS: +279
  • BetOnline.ag: +285
  • DraftKings: +240
  • BetRivers: +200

The largest gap is at BetOnline.ag, where Ziam is -350 to Fernandes’ +285—a 635-point swing. Overall, Ziam’s odds average around -300 (implying roughly a 75% chance to win), whereas Fernandes’ odds hover near +260 (about a 28–30% implied chance).

Best value bets:

• To back Ziam, the highest payout comes at BetRivers (–265).
• To back Fernandes, BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest line at +285.

Line Movement & Sharps’ Influence

A look at the odds history shows consistent movement in favor of Ziam, suggesting sharp money backing the Frenchman:

• Caesars shifted from –235 → –270 → –300.
• BetUS climbed from –225 → –260 → –350.
• BetOnline.ag moved from –210 → –325 → –350.

On the underdog side, Fernandes’ line has also drifted longer, indicating lighter action on his chances:

• Caesars moved from +195 → +220 → +240.
• BetUS rose from +186 → +264 → +279.
• BetOnline.ag expanded from +180 → +275 → +285.

The biggest swing appeared on BetUS for both fighters—Ziam moved 125 points in two days, while Fernandes drifted 93 points—highlighting uneven betting distribution. Overall, the market has grown more confident in Ziam’s path to victory as fight week progressed.

Betting Scenarios: $1,000 Wagers

If you’re risking $1,000 on either man, here’s what you’d stand to win:

• Betting $1,000 on Fares Ziam
  • At –300 (e.g., Caesars), you’d win $333 in profit (return of $1,333).
  • At –265 (BetRivers), you’d win $377 in profit (return of $1,377).

• Betting $1,000 on Kaue Fernandes
  • At +240 (Caesars/DraftKings), you’d win $2,400 in profit (return of $3,400).
  • At +285 (BetOnline.ag), you’d win $2,850 in profit (return of $3,850).

Given these figures, BetOnline.ag is clearly the best sportsbook if you believe in an upset, while BetRivers offers the strongest payday on the favorite with relatively low juice.

Whether you’re leaning on the implied ~75% probability of Ziam or chasing the underdog’s ~30% shot, understanding these line movements and payout structures can help you maximize value and manage risk heading into UFC Paris.