Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Fight Analysis

As the UFC returns to the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, on August 2, 2025, fight fans around the world are eagerly anticipating a pivotal Lightweight clash on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira. Kicking off at 8:00 PM PT (1:00 AM UTC, August 3), this bout features Poland’s rising grappling ace Mateusz Rebecki squaring off against Scotland’s explosive striker Chris Duncan. With both men eager to climb the division ladder, this contest promises fireworks, strategic grappling exchanges, and high-stakes betting intrigue.

Date, Time & Venue

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
• Date: Saturday, August 2, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM PT / 11:00 PM ET (1:00 AM UTC on August 3)
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Lightweight Clash Overview

Rebecki vs Duncan sits at Lightweight (155 lb), a division renowned for its blend of speed, power, and relentless action. Both fighters enter with distinct styles:

• Mateusz Rebecki (20-2-0)

  • Strengths: World-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, 75% takedown accuracy, 10 first-round finishes
  • Average Fight Time: 9:47
  • Recent Form: Coming off a narrow split decision win over Myktybek Orolbai in October 2024, Rebecki is looking to rebound from his TKO loss to Diego Ferreira in May.

• Chris Duncan (11-2-0)

  • Strengths: Heavy hands with 8 knockouts, 60% significant strike accuracy, 4 first-round finishes
  • Average Fight Time: 10:32
  • Recent Form: Fresh off a unanimous decision victory over Andrey Pulyaev in March 2025, Duncan seeks to avenge his two UFC losses by showcasing his striking prowess.

Odds & Betting Outlook

• Favorite: Mateusz Rebecki (-200) (BetOnline.ag)
• Underdog: Chris Duncan (+170) (BetOnline.ag)

Rebecki’s dominant grappling credentials and finishing rate have earned him the favorite’s tag. Bettors are banking on his takedown chain and submission threat to neutralize Duncan’s knockout power. Conversely, Duncan’s underdog price reflects the upside of landing a highlight-reel finish if he can keep the fight standing and avoid Rebecki’s ground control.

Key Storylines

1. Grappler vs. Power Puncher: Will Rebecki impose his wrestling and jiu-jitsu, or can Duncan’s heavy strikes change the fight’s trajectory?
2. Pace & Pressure: Rebecki has shown a relentless pace with strong cardio and grappling pressure. Duncan must manage distance, pick his shots carefully, and look for countering opportunities.
3. Experience & Adjustments: Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC, but Rebecki’s 22-fight pro experience and pedigree in submission grappling give him a strategic edge. Duncan, however, has demonstrated an ability to adapt, as seen in his knockout win over Claudio Ribeiro earlier in 2024.

With momentum, rankings implications, and career trajectories on the line, Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan is set to deliver a captivating chapter in the Lightweight division’s unfolding saga. Whether you’re wagering on the canvas control of Rebecki or the knockout upside of Duncan, this bout is a must-watch on the road to contender status.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

As two contrasting styles collide in the Octagon, understanding each fighter’s background, recent form, and statistical makeup is crucial for predicting how this Lightweight showdown will unfold. Below, we break down Mateusz Rebecki and Chris Duncan—from their origins and fighting styles to their strengths, weaknesses, and the key trends emerging from their last five outings.

Mateusz Rebecki Profile

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: Poland
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with relentless wrestling and submission pedigree

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Oct. 26, 2024 – Def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (3 rounds)
2. May 11, 2024 – Loss to Diego Ferreira via KO/TKO (Round 3, 4:51)
3. Nov. 11, 2023 – Def. Roosevelt Roberts via Submission (Round 1, 3:08)
4. Jun. 24, 2023 – Def. Loik Radzhabov via KO/TKO (Round 2, 2:36)
5. Jan. 14, 2023 – Def. Nick Fiore via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)

Rebecki enters on a 4-1 run, showcasing a potent blend of grappling and finishing instincts. His only setback—a late TKO loss to Ferreira—came after he had largely dictated the pace on the mat.

Strengths

• Takedown Offense (75% accuracy): One of the highest in the division, allowing him to control where the fight takes place.
• Submission Arsenal (7 career subs): Transitions fluidly from wrestling takedowns to submission attempts.
• First-Round Finishes (10): Dangerous early, often exploiting openings before opponents find their rhythm.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 9:47 and a history of sustained pressure make him tough to outlast.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (45%): Vulnerable when opponents shoot on him, as seen in his KO loss where Ferreira capitalized on a scramble.
• Striking Accuracy (49%): Below-average output for a top-level lightweight; can struggle to tag elusive strikers.
• Striking Defense (55%): Leaves openings against heavy hitters, particularly in the pocket.

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Chris Duncan Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Scotland
• Fighting Style: Power striker with a background in MMA kickboxing; relies on heavy hands and explosiveness

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Mar. 22, 2025 – Def. Andrey Pulyaev via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
2. Jul. 27, 2024 – Loss to Gregory Rodrigues via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
3. Mar. 2, 2024 – Def. Claudio Ribeiro via KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:57)
4. Nov. 18, 2023 – Def. Denis Tiuliulin via KO/TKO (Round 2, 4:24)
5. Jun. 17, 2023 – Loss to Armen Petrosyan via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)

Duncan is 3-2 over his last five, demonstrating elite finishing power but also a propensity to leave openings that savvy opponents exploit in extended grappling exchanges.

Strengths

• Knockout Power (8 KOs): One of the most dangerous punchers in the division; four first-round stoppages.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (60%): Elite precision—when he commits to a shot, it lands clean.
• Takedown Defense (72%): Stout enough to keep the fight upright against non-wrestlers.
• Durability: Only two losses, both via decision; has never been submitted in the UFC.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (11%): Almost no wrestling game—struggles to close distance and threaten on the mat.
• Average Fight Time (10:32): Tends to lag in cardio battles when the finish doesn’t come early.
• Significant Strike Defense (52%): Open to counter-striking, especially against volume hitters.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Grappling vs. Striking: Rebecki’s 75% takedown accuracy directly targets Duncan’s glaring 11% takedown offense.
• Power Exchange: Duncan’s 60% striking accuracy and 8 KOs threaten every standing exchange—Rebecki must navigate these waters carefully.
• Pace & Control: Rebecki’s early-round instinct and submission prowess could force Duncan into uncomfortable positions, whereas Duncan’s power could derail Rebecki if he overextends.

This stylistic crossroads—Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grinder versus explosive striker—sets the stage for a classic clash. Bettors and fans alike will be watching whether Rebecki can impose his grappling will or Duncan can keep the fight upright and land the fight-ending blow.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Understanding the betting landscape for Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan is crucial for bettors looking to capitalize on value or safeguard their bankroll. Below, we break down the current lines, historical swings, payout scenarios, implied probabilities, and the top sportsbook to place your wagers.

Current Odds Overview

• Mateusz Rebecki: –200 (favorite)
• Chris Duncan: +170 (underdog)

At BetOnline.ag, Rebecki is installed as a solid favorite at –200, indicating the market’s confidence in his grappling-heavy offense and consistent finishing rate. Duncan’s +170 underdog tag reflects his knockout upside and the belief that he can land a fight-ending strike if he keeps the bout standing.

The gap between –200 and +170 highlights a clear expectation that Rebecki controls where the fight goes—on the mat—while Duncan must strike with precision and power when the opportunity arises.

Line Movement History

Bookmakers opened the lines early on July 21:

• Rebecki: Opened at –221 → moved to –200
• Duncan: Opened at +186 → moved to +170

Although neither line swung dramatically, both have shortened toward more balanced figures. Rebecki’s odds rising from –221 to –200 suggests bettors found additional confidence in his ground game. Simultaneously, Duncan’s shift from +186 to +170 indicates incoming action on the Scot’s knockout potential. These modest moves show that money is coming in on both sides, but no large, abrupt swings have occurred—implying a steady distribution of wagers rather than a late, lopsided rush.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you were to risk $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what a winning ticket would yield:

• $1,000 on Rebecki (–200):
  – Profit: $500
  – Total Return: $1,500

• $1,000 on Duncan (+170):
  – Profit: $1,700
  – Total Return: $2,700

Based on these lines, the implied probabilities are roughly:

• Rebecki: ~67% chance to win
• Duncan: ~37% chance to win

These percentages already account for the sportsbook’s built-in margin, so keep in mind the true probabilities may differ slightly.

Top Sportsbook to Bet

For this fight, BetOnline.ag offers the most competitive lines and a user-friendly interface. They’ve consistently provided early odds and minimal line movement, allowing sharp bettors to lock in value before shifts occur. If you’re seeking pre-fight props or live betting during the bout, BetOnline.ag also features:

• Prop markets on method of victory (e.g., submission, KO/TKO, decision)
• Round-by-round betting
• In-play odds updates with fast in-browser wagering

Whether you’re siding with Rebecki’s methodical grappling or Duncan’s explosive power, understanding these odds, line movements, and potential payouts is vital for making an informed wager. Keep an eye on any late betting trends—in a fight as stylistically polarized as this, the smart money often moves early and decisively. Good luck!