Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara Preview, Odds & AI Pick

Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, September 27, 2025, fight fans will descend on the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, as the UFC returns Down Under for UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes. Slated for the Preliminary Card, the women’s strawweight clash between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara is set to kick off early in the evening session, officially beginning at 23:00 UTC (local time in Perth: 7:00 PM AWST). With both women looking to solidify their spot in the ultra-competitive 115-pound division, this bout promises dynamic stand-up exchanges, slick grappling transitions, and a high-octane finish.

Alexia Thainara enters this matchup as the clear betting favorite. Across major sportsbooks, she’s hovering around –200 to –215 in American odds, reflecting sharp money anticipating her grappling prowess and submission pedigree. Thainara exploded onto the UFC scene in March 2025 with a first-round submission of former contender Molly McCann, improving her professional record to an impressive 12–1–0. Boasting perfect 100% takedown accuracy and seven career submissions, the Brazilian juggernaut has already stamped her authority on the division.

On the opposite side of the Octagon, Loma Lookboonmee arrives as the underdog, seeing line movement from +170 to +160 in recent action. Ranked #14 in the women’s strawweight standings, the Thai striker owns a 10–3–0 record and has steadily evolved since her 2019 UFC debut. With a 56% significant strike accuracy and one knockout on her résumé, Lookboonmee relies on precise striking and feints to open up opportunities—though her ground game, while improved, is still a work in progress compared to her opponent’s elite-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

Why This Bout Matters

• Division Implications: A win for Thainara cements her as a serious riser in 115 lbs, potentially vaulting her into top-10 contention.
• Stylistic Contrast: Thainara’s relentless takedown strategy versus Lookboonmee’s striking angles creates a classic striker-vs-grappler puzzle.
• Regional Showcase: Competing on Australian soil adds extra stakes, as the UFC looks to showcase international talent on a global stage.

With both women at age 29 and hungry for momentum, this fight serves as a vital crossroads for their respective careers. Whether Thainara can continue her submission tear or Lookboonmee can keep the fight upright and hand out her own striking clinic, one thing is certain: fans in Perth and around the world are in for an electrifying preliminary scrap to kick off UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Loma Lookboonmee Profile

Name: Loma Lookboonmee
Age: 29
Country: Thailand
Fighting Style: Striker
Record: 10–3–0 (UFC #14 Women’s Strawweight)

Recent Form

1. Win vs. Istela Nunes – Decision (Unanimous) | Apr. 5, 2025
2. Win vs. Bruna Brasil – Decision (Unanimous) | Feb. 10, 2024
3. Win vs. Elise Reed – Submission (Rear‐Naked Choke) Round 2 | Feb. 11, 2023
4. Win vs. Denise Gomes – Decision (Unanimous) | Sep. 17, 2022
5. Loss vs. Loopy Godinez – Decision (Unanimous) | Nov. 20, 2021

Loma is on a four‐fight winning streak since her November 2021 setback. All four victories have come via decision, showcasing her durability and ability to maintain a high output over 15 minutes.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (56%): Lands more than half of her significant strikes.
• Takedown Defense (74%): Excellent at keeping the fight standing.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: Averaging nearly 14 minutes per fight, she paces herself to dominate late rounds.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: Only 1 KO and 1 submission in 13 pro wins—rarely ends the contest early.
• Takedown Offense (52%): Moderate wrestling; may struggle to bring elite grapplers to the mat.
• Defense vs. Elite Grapplers: While her takedown defense is solid, sustained takedown attempts by top‐level wrestlers could wear her down.

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Alexia Thainara Profile

Name: Alexia Thainara
Age: 29
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Submission Specialist (MMA)
Record: 12–1–0 (Undefeated in UFC)

Recent Form

1. Win vs. Molly McCann – Submission (Arm‐Triangle Choke) Round 1 | Mar. 22, 2025
2. Pro Win – Submission | Date/Details N/A (Pre‐UFC)
3. Pro Win – Decision or Submission | Date/Details N/A (Pre‐UFC)
4. Pro Win – Submission | Date/Details N/A (Pre‐UFC)
5. Pro Loss – Decision | Date/Details N/A (Pre‐UFC)

Thainara debuted in the UFC with a first‐round finish of a former contender and has since built a 12–1 pro mark, including seven career submissions. She arrives in Australia brimming with confidence.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (100%): Never misses when she shoots, allowing her to dictate where the fight goes.
• Submission Prowess (7 of 12 wins): Elite on the mat with a wide array of chokes and locks.
• Significant Strike Defense (70%): Largely avoids damage when striking exchanges do occur, setting up entries into her Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Weaknesses

• Striking Offense (41% Accuracy): Can struggle to land clean shots if the takedown is stuffed.
• Finishing Power (0 KOs): Limited knockout threat means she must rely on wrestling.
• Takedown Defense (0%): Has yet to face significant takedown pressure; may be vulnerable if reversed or smothered against the cage.

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Stylistic Contrast

• Striker vs. Grappler: Loma’s precise stand-up and sturdy takedown defense clash with Thainara’s relentless wrestling and submission game.
• Pace & Duration: Lookboonmee thrives in three‐round wars; Thainara excels in early finishes, as evidenced by her 4:32 stoppage of McCann.
• Key Battle: Can Thainara overwhelm Loma’s defense with constant level changes, or will Loma’s movement and accuracy keep the fight upright and go the distance?

This matchup pits two well‐rounded 29-year-olds on opposite ends of the tactical spectrum. Fans should watch for the clinch exchanges, ground transitions, and whether Thainara’s grappling can neutralize Loma’s striking edge.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Alexia Thainara is firmly installed as the favorite across the board, while Loma Lookboonmee takes on the role of underdog.

• Alexia Thainara: roughly –200 (Caesars), –210 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS), –215 (BetRivers), –200 (BetMGM).
• Loma Lookboonmee: approximately +160 (Caesars), +180 (BetOnline.ag), +165 (BetMGM), +170 (BetRivers), +174 (BetUS).

That gap—about 360 to 380 cents between favorite and underdog—highlights the market’s respect for Thainara’s takedown and submission arsenal, while acknowledging Lookboonmee’s value as a resilient, technically sound striker.

Best Sportsbooks:

• For backing the underdog, BetOnline.ag (+180) offers the juiciest return.
• For betting the favorite, Caesars (–200) provides the softest line—maximizing probability of a winning ticket even at a leaner payout.

Line Movement & Market Trends

A closer look at the odds history reveals notable volatility, particularly on BetOnline.ag:

• Alexia Thainara opened at –210, dipped to –180, briefly surged to –220, and now sits around –210 again.
• Loma Lookboonmee mirrored that back-and-forth: opening at +180, dropping as low as +145 on BetMGM, then rebounding to +180.

These swings suggest heavy action at key inflection points—likely driven by sharp bettors and late-breaking information on training camp health or travel delays. The most dramatic shifts occurred between September 12–14, when each fighter’s line moved roughly 30–35 cents in either direction within hours, reflecting a tug-of-war between early bettors and sportsbooks adjusting juice.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 to place on either athlete, here’s what you’d get back:

• Betting $1,000 on Loma Lookboonmee at +180 (BetOnline.ag) would yield a $1,800 profit—for a total return of $2,800.
• Betting $1,000 on Alexia Thainara at –200 (Caesars) would yield a $500 profit—for a total return of $1,500.

Based on these odds, the implied probabilities are roughly:

• Alexia Thainara: ~67% chance to win
• Loma Lookboonmee: ~36% chance to win

Those percentages reflect the market’s confidence in Thainara’s elite grappling versus Lookboonmee’s underdog upside. If you believe Loma’s striking precision and takedown defense can frustrate Thainara’s wrestling, the enhanced return on +180 presents significant value. Conversely, if you trust Thainara to execute her patented 100% takedown accuracy and hunt for submissions early, locking in –200 at Caesars is the safer—but slimmer—path to a winning ticket.