Thicknesse vs Musasa UFC Perth Odds & Analysis

Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa Fight Analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight clash between Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa is set to ignite the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes on September 27, 2025, at the iconic RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. Scheduled to begin at 11:00 PM local time (AWST), this three-round affair promises explosive action as both men seek to make a statement early on what is already shaping up to be an electric night of fights.

When and Where

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes
• Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
• Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
• Card Position: Preliminary Card
• Local Start Time: 11:00 PM AWST

Whether you’re tuning in from Australia or abroad, this bout will serve as a pivotal momentum builder. The Perth crowd, known for its passionate support of MMA, will be on its feet as these two contenders showcase their skills under the bright lights of the RAC Arena.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

In this matchup, Josias Musasa enters as the favorite with opening odds of -140 (American) at BetOnline.ag. Musasa, a 26-year-old kickboxer hailing from Lubumbashi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, carries an impressive 8-1 professional record into his sophomore UFC appearance. Known for his devastating power—7 of his 8 wins coming by knockout—and aggressive striking style, he poses a significant threat in every exchange.

Conversely, Colby Thicknesse is slotted as the underdog at +120. The 25-year-old Australian made a strong impression with his UFC debut earlier this year, showcasing a well-rounded game that includes 2 knockout wins and 2 submissions among his 7 professional victories. Despite a setback against a top prospect, Aleksandre Topuria, Thicknesse’s resilience and diversified skill set make him a dangerous opponent capable of exploiting any lapse in Musasa’s offense.

What’s at Stake

• Musasa will aim to rebound from his lone MMA defeat—a first-round submission loss—and cement himself as a rising force in the bantamweight division.
• Thicknesse seeks redemption after his unanimous decision setback and an opportunity to leverage the home-crowd advantage to climb the UFC ladder.

With contrasting styles—Musasa’s power striking versus Thicknesse’s balanced attack—this bout features all the ingredients for an intense firefight. As fight night approaches, bettors and fans alike will be closely monitoring pre-fight odds shifts, injury reports, and training camp updates to determine who emerges victorious in this pivotal preliminary showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Josias Musasa Profile

Age: 26
Country: Democratic Republic of the Congo
Fighting Style: Kickboxer

Recent Form

• Mar. 15, 2025: Submission loss to Carlos Vera (R1, 3:16) in UFC debut
• Preceding 6 Bouts: Six straight first-round finishes (7 KOs total) across regional promotions, showcasing explosive power

Musasa burst onto the UFC scene with an unblemished 8-0 record, only to be thwarted by Vera’s grappling on fight night. Prior to that setback, he terrorized opponents with heavy hands and crippling leg kicks, knocking out the majority of his foes inside five minutes.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Power Striking: 7 of 8 career wins by knockout; striking accuracy of 44% ensures his power shots land with regularity
• Finishing Instinct: Six first-round stoppages highlight his aggressive approach and ability to close distance
• Wrestling Defense: 78% takedown defense rate prevents wrestlers from imposing their grappling game

Weaknesses:

• Ground Game: Susceptible to submissions, as evidenced by his lone career defeat via rear-naked choke
• Defensive Lapses: Significant strike defense at 29%—he absorbs a high volume of clean shots when pressured
• Cardio Concerns: Average fight time of 9:08 suggests potential gas issues if he doesn’t secure an early finish

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Colby Thicknesse Profile

Age: 25
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Freestyle

Recent Form

• Feb. 8, 2025: Unanimous decision loss to Aleksandre Topuria (3 rounds) in UFC debut
• Prior 7 Bouts: Undefeated run (7-0) with 4 first-round finishes (2 KOs, 2 submissions) on the regional circuit

Thicknesse impressed early with a versatile arsenal—mixing slick wrestling entries with sudden submission attempts and powerful hooks. His lone setback came against Topuria, a top-15 featherweight, where he was outpaced in striking volume and takedown entries.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Well-Rounded Skill Set: Combines 30% striking accuracy with 2 submission wins, making him dangerous in all phases
• Durability & Cardio: Averaging a full 15-minute fight, he has proven he can weather storms and outlast foes
• Adaptability: Comfortable shifting between striking at range and clinch exchanges to set up takedowns

Weaknesses:

• Limited Power: Only 2 KOs in 7 wins; may struggle to deter Musasa’s forward pressure
• Takedown Offense: 0% takedown accuracy in UFC sample; if he can’t get the fight to the mat, he’ll be forced to trade strikes
• Defense Under Fire: 48% significant strike defense leaves openings for heavy hitters

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Head-to-Head Analysis

This matchup pits Musasa’s explosive knockout prowess against Thicknesse’s balanced, endurance-based approach. Musasa will look to impose his striking early—taking advantage of weak strike defense—while Thicknesse must drag the bout into deeper waters, utilize lateral movement, and threaten takedowns. Victory for either athlete hinges on whether Musasa can land fight-ending shots before Thicknesse settles into a rhythm, or if Thicknesse can neutralize Musasa’s power with grappling and superior cardio. Fans should expect a clash of styles with momentum swings at every turn.

Betting Odds & Odds History

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, Josias Musasa sits as the favorite at -140, while Colby Thicknesse is the underdog at +120. The gap between the two lines reflects oddsmakers’ confidence in Musasa’s power striking and finishing ability versus Thicknesse’s well-rounded game and home-crowd boost in Perth. Betting on Musasa requires a larger risk to win a smaller reward, whereas backing Thicknesse offers higher upside on a smaller stake.

Odds Movement & Line Swings

A look at the line movement over the last 48 hours reveals significant early action and adjustments:

• Musasa (-300 → -170 → -150 → -140)
  • Opened extremely heavy at -300, indicating early sharp money on Musasa.
  • Sharp bettors quickly identified value on the plus-money side, pushing his line back to -170 within hours.
  • Continued balanced action nudged him to -150, then further to the current -140.

• Thicknesse (+250 → +145 → +130 → +120)
  • Initially a longshot at +250, suggesting little confidence in the Aussie newcomer.
  • Bettors responded, engaging on his well-rounded style and home advantage, driving his price down to +145.
  • The line continued to tighten to +130 and now +120, signaling growing respect for his all-around skill set.

These swings underscore the evolving narrative: Musasa’s star power versus Thicknesse’s underdog appeal. Early lopsided money on both sides has given way to a more competitive market, with bettors finding value at every turn.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

While multiple sportsbooks may post similar lines, BetOnline.ag currently offers the most consistent pricing and deepest liquidity for this bout. Their lines have moved gradually rather than in abrupt leaps, indicating strong market management and fewer limits on bet size. For bettors seeking smooth execution and competitive odds, BetOnline.ag is the top choice for wagering on Thicknesse vs Musasa.

$1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Probabilities

• Bet $1,000 on Josias Musasa (-140):
  • Profit: $714
  • Total Return: $1,714
  • Implied Win Probability: ≈58%

• Bet $1,000 on Colby Thicknesse (+120):
  • Profit: $1,200
  • Total Return: $2,200
  • Implied Win Probability: ≈45%

Though the house edge (vig) means probabilities sum to over 100%, these figures give a clear snapshot of how oddsmakers view each man’s chances. Musasa’s implied edge aligns with his favorite tag, while Thicknesse’s underdog status rewards risk-takers handsomely if he pulls off the upset.

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By tracking these lines, bettors can identify moments of maximum value—whether locking in current pricing or waiting for late swings. As fight night in Perth approaches, watch for additional movement, especially as weigh-ins conclude and any camp news surfaces.