UFC Stirling vs Bellato: Odds, Picks & Fight Analysis

Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato fight breakdown

Introduction

The Light Heavyweight clash between Navajo Stirling and Rodolfo Bellato is set to open the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, broadcasting live from RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. The bout is scheduled for Saturday, September 27, 2025, with the first bell expected to ring at 23:00 UTC (local time). As both men look to make an early statement on this stacked card, bettors and pundits alike have already marked Stirling as a clear favorite, while Bellato enters as a live underdog with finishing power.

Setting the Stage

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes
• Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, WA, Australia
• Date & Time: September 27, 2025 · 23:00 UTC
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card, Main Event Warm-Up
• Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lb)

The Favorite: Navajo Stirling

At 27 years old, New Zealander Navajo Stirling (7-0-0) has rapidly climbed the UFC’s Light Heavyweight ranks since his debut on December 14, 2024. The former kickboxer combines a 79-inch reach and technical striking to control distance, while his 53% significant strike accuracy and 61% defense demonstrate both aggression and evasiveness. Stirling’s unbeaten record includes two first-round finishes and unanimous decision victories over Tuco Tokkos and UFC newcomer Ivan Erslan. His opening odds of –250 (BetOnline.ag) reflect the confidence oddsmakers have in his polished stand-up and improving ground game.

The Underdog: Rodolfo Bellato

Brazilian veteran Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1, +210) arrives with more octagon mileage but a mixed UFC ledger. Making his promotional debut in December 2023, Bellato impressed with a second-round TKO over Ihor Potieria but has since dropped three straight against Paul Craig (twice) and Jim Crute. Despite his recent setbacks, Bellato still boasts 7 KOs, 4 submissions, and a remarkable 100% takedown defense—a testament to his durability. His 62% striking accuracy indicates fight-ending power, and his experience against top contenders could turn the tide if Stirling’s pace falters.

Betting Odds Snapshot

• Navajo Stirling: –250 (favorite)
• Rodolfo Bellato: +210 (underdog)

Odds across major sportsbooks (BetOnline.ag, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS) have consistently priced Stirling as the clear favorite, reflecting his undefeated record and stylistic advantages. Bellato’s odds have drifted from +170 to +210 as bettors weigh his recent form against his finishing upside.

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As both fighters prepare for this pivotal Light Heavyweight showdown, expect Stirling to employ his kickboxing pedigree and reach advantage, while Bellato will look to pressure, mix takedowns, and capitalize on any lapse in Stirling’s striking defense. In the sections that follow, we’ll dive deeper into each athlete’s strengths, weaknesses, recent performances, and tactical approaches to help you make an informed wager.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

As the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes kicks off in Perth, two contrasting Light Heavyweights will collide. On one side stands the unbeaten New Zealand kickboxer Navajo Stirling, a 27-year-old rising star with technical striking and a +79-inch reach. Opposite him is 29-year-old Brazilian veteran Rodolfo Bellato, whose 12-2-1 record, seven KOs and perfect takedown defense speak to his power and durability. Below, we break down each fighter’s background, recent form and key strengths and weaknesses.

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Navajo Stirling

Background

• Age: 27
• Hometown: Upper Hutt, New Zealand
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer
• Height / Reach: 76 in / 79 in (arms), 43 in (legs)
• UFC Debut: Dec 14, 2024
• Pro Record: 7-0-0 (4 KOs, 0 Submissions)

Recent Form

• Win vs. Ivan Erslan – Decision (Unanimous), May 10, 2025
• Win vs. Tuco Tokkos – Decision (Unanimous), Dec 14, 2024
• (Prior to UFC debut: 5-0 in regional promotions, 2 first-round finishes)

Stirling has made a statement in both UFC outings, grinding out back-to-back unanimous decisions while displaying crisp combinations and footwork. Though he’s yet to secure a UFC finish, his two first-round stoppages earlier in his career underscore his finishing potential.

Strengths

• Striking Precision: 53% significant strike accuracy allows him to pick his spots and punish wild counters.
• Defensive Footwork: 61% significant strike defense keeps him elusive, minimizing damage absorbed.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time of 12:27 shows he can maintain volume over three rounds.
• Reach & Range Control: His extra reach creates angles for straight punches and front kicks.

Weaknesses

• Ground Game: 30% takedown accuracy means he may struggle to impose wrestling if Bellato defends stoutly.
• Limited Sample: Only two UFC fights leaves him untested against elite grapplers or pressure strikers.
• Finishing Instinct: Zero UFC finishes suggest he may lack killer instinct once the pace slows.

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Rodolfo Bellato

Background

• Age: 29
• Hometown: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA
• Height / Reach: 75 in / 77.5 in (arms), 44 in (legs)
• UFC Debut: Dec 2, 2023
• Pro Record: 12-2-1 (7 KOs, 4 Submissions)

Recent Form

• Loss vs. Paul Craig – Could Not Continue (Elbow), Jun 14, 2025
• Loss vs. Paul Craig – Decision, May 17, 2025
• Loss vs. Jim Crute – Decision (Majority), Feb 8, 2025
• Win vs. Ihor Potieria – KO/TKO, Dec 2, 2023

Bellato stormed into the UFC with a highlight-reel TKO, but a three-fight skid has exposed holes in his offense and conditioning. His inability to finish Craig or Crute suggests he’s struggling to adjust as competition stiffens.

Strengths

• Finishing Power: 7 KOs and 4 submissions highlight his diverse finishing arsenal.
• Takedown Defense: 100% takedown defense frustrates wrestlers and keeps the fight standing.
• Durability: High output and low damage taken allow him to absorb early pressure.
• Experience: 15 professional fights give him a seasoned ring IQ.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 46% significant strike defense means he concedes more clean shots than average.
• Takedown Offense: 36% accuracy limits his ability to change levels and mix up striking.
• Recent Confidence: Three straight losses can sap momentum and mental edge.
• Cardio Concerns: Average fight time of 9:32 vs. Stirling’s longer rounds may see him gas in later ticks.

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This stylistic and statistical contrast—Stirling’s precision and range versus Bellato’s power and defense—sets the stage for a compelling clash. In the following sections, we’ll dissect potential game plans and prop bets to watch.

Betting Odds & Odds History

Current Betting Odds Snapshot

As fight night approaches, Navajo Stirling is firmly installed as the favorite over Rodolfo Bellato, and the gap in pricing reflects oddsmakers’ confidence in the unbeaten Kiwi:

• Navajo Stirling:

  • BetOnline.ag & BetUS: –250
  • Caesars: –225
  • BetMGM: –220
  • BetRivers: –215

• Rodolfo Bellato:

  • BetOnline.ag: +210
  • BetUS: +206
  • Caesars: +185
  • BetMGM: +180
  • BetRivers: +170

At –250, Stirling carries roughly a 71% implied win probability, while Bellato’s +210 translates to about a 32% chance. If you’re shopping lines, BetOnline.ag currently offers the best price for both fighters: –250 on Stirling and +210 on Bellato.

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Line Movement & Swing Analysis

Tracking the market’s shifts since opening reveals significant momentum toward Stirling:

• Navajo Stirling opened at –200 (Sept. 12), tightened to –220 by Sept. 14, then progressively steepened to –240 and finally –250 by Sept. 15.
• Rodolfo Bellato mirrored that movement in reverse, opening at +170, drifting to +185, +195, +205, and peaking at +210.

This steady drift—50 cents on Stirling’s line and 40 points on Bellato’s—suggests heavy backing of Stirling or line makers anticipating substantial money on the Kiwi. The most dramatic swing occurred late on September 14, when Stirling jumped from –230 to –240 within an hour, and Bellato moved from +195 to +205. This may have been triggered by sharp action or new scouting intel.

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$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

Wondering what a four-figure wager would yield? Here’s a quick look, no math lesson required:

• Bet $1,000 on Navajo Stirling at –250
  – Profit: $400
  – Total Return: $1,400

• Bet $1,000 on Rodolfo Bellato at +210
  – Profit: $2,100
  – Total Return: $3,100

Based on current odds, Stirling’s implied win probability sits around 71%, while Bellato comes in at approximately 32%.

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Best Books & Betting Strategy

• To back Stirling, grab the –250 at BetOnline.ag or BetUS.
• To support the underdog Bellato, the +210 at BetOnline.ag is your most generous line.

Given the substantial line movement, value seekers might lean toward Bellato if they believe his finishing power and perfect takedown defense can neutralize Stirling’s reach advantage. Conversely, bettors confident in Stirling’s undefeated momentum and superior striking metrics should lock in the –250 while the line still holds. Choose your side, check your juice, and prepare for an intriguing Light Heavyweight showdown in Perth!