Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic UFC Fight Analysis

Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic Fight Analysis

Introduction

The much-anticipated middleweight clash between Jose Daniel Medina and Dusko Todorovic is set to ignite the octagon on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva, taking place on Saturday, September 13, 2025. This showdown is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, and represents a pivotal moment for both competitors as they look to reverse recent fortunes and climb the competitive middleweight ladder.

Dusko Todorovic enters this contest as the heavy favorite, with sportsbooks like FanDuel pricing him as low as -330 and DraftKings at -305. The Serbian powerhouse has compiled a 12-6-0 professional record, boasting 8 knockout victories, 3 submissions, and an impressive seven first-round finishes. At 31 years old, Todorovic brings a combination of explosive striking (57% significant strike accuracy) and dangerous finishing instincts to the cage. Despite recent setbacks—including a unanimous decision loss to Zachary Reese in May 2025—he remains a formidable threat with power in both hands and a proven track record of early night stoppages.

On the other side stands Jose Daniel Medina, the underdog of the evening, currently pegged at +240 on FanDuel and as high as +250 at BetOnline.ag. Hailing from Bolivia and making his UFC debut just over a year ago, Medina holds an 11-5-0 professional ledger, featuring 8 knockout wins, 2 submissions, and 6 first-round stoppages of his own. Though his résumé is slightly less decorated, the 33-year-old boxer-turned-mixed martial artist is far from a push-over. With a 33% takedown accuracy and an unyielding chin, Medina has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity—even bouncing back from a knockout loss to Ateba Gautier in March 2025.

What makes this matchup particularly compelling is the stylistic contrast: Todorovic’s aggressive, power-punching approach versus Medina’s technical boxing foundation and underrated ground game. While Todorovic boasts a 74-inch reach and a penchant for finishing opponents before the bell, Medina counters with a 74.5-inch reach, superior takedown success, and a willingness to grind out decisions if the early stoppage doesn’t materialize. The selling point for bettors is clear: a reliable money-line favorite in Todorovic, balanced by substantial payout potential on Medina should he defy the odds.

As we countdown to fight night, factor in Medina’s southpaw boxing pedigree, his improving defensive metrics (47% significant strike defense), and the momentum a high-percentage underdog can carry. Conversely, Todorovic’s power, experience against top-level UFC competition, and ability to dictate pace make him a tempting play for those seeking a safer investment.

Whether you’re rooting for the Serbian striker to reclaim his winning ways or banking on the Bolivian boxer to serve up an upset, this bout promises fireworks, high-level technique, and a clear favorite-underdog narrative that will have fans and gamblers alike glued to every exchange. Strap in for a compelling middleweight battle under the bright lights of San Antonio!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Dusko Todorovic Profile

Age & Country: 31, Kotor, Montenegro (fighting out of Serbia)
Fighting Style: MMA striker with powerful boxing and a high finishing rate
Physical Attributes: 73″ height, 74″ reach, 186 lb fight weight

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Fights)

• May 2025: Loss to Zachary Reese (Decision – Unanimous)
• Nov 2024: Loss to Mansur Abdul Malik (KO/TKO, R1 2:44)
• Mar 2023: Loss to Christian Leroy Duncan (KO/TKO, R1 1:52)
• Oct 2022: Win over Jordan Wright (KO/TKO, R2 3:12)
• May 2022: Loss to Chidi Njokuani (KO/TKO, R1 4:48)

Todorovic’s UFC tenure has been a rollercoaster: one highlight stoppage win sandwiched between four knockout or decision defeats. Despite his power, recent lapses in defense have led to three first-round knockout losses in four outings.

Strengths

• Striking Power & Accuracy: 57% significant strike accuracy, 8 KO wins, 7 first-round finishes. Todorovic can end fights early with heavy hands.
• Finishing Instincts: Average fight time is just over 8 minutes, showing he pushes pace and hunts finishes.
• Reach Advantage: 74″ reach allows him to control distance and land big shots before opponents can close.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (43%): Vulnerable to wrestlers and grapplers; a high-level takedown artist could exploit this gap.
• Significant Strike Defense (48%): Nearly half of opponents’ significant strikes land, indicating openings in his guard.
• Recent Durability Issues: Three knockout losses in last four UFC fights raise questions about chin and defensive discipline.

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Jose Daniel Medina Profile

Age & Country: 33, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Fighting Style: Boxing-based MMA with emerging grappling skills
Physical Attributes: 72″ height, 74.5″ reach, 186 lb fight weight

Recent Form (UFC Debut & Last 2 Fights)

• Mar 2025: Loss to Ateba Gautier (KO/TKO, R1 3:32)
• Aug 2024: Loss to Zachary Reese (Decision – Unanimous)

A late UFC arrival (Aug. 2024), Medina is 0-2 in the octagon but boasts an 11-5 pro record, showing resilience despite early setbacks.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (33%): Superior to Todorovic’s 18%, enabling him to mix wrestling and avoid striking exchanges when needed.
• Reach & Boxing Fundamentals: 74.5″ reach and boxing pedigree help him maintain distance, pick shots, and manage pace.
• Durability & Endurance: Average fight time is 11:11, reflecting good cardio and ability to go the distance if he can neutralize early power.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (37%): Below-average significant strike accuracy makes him a less efficient puncher against high-level strikers.
• Significant Strike Defense (47%): Similar to Todorovic’s defense but paired with less power, making counters more dangerous.
• Takedown Defense (31%): Vulnerable if Todorovic elects to wrestle, as nearly 70% of takedowns land against him.

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Head-to-Head Takeaways

• Power vs. Technique: Todorovic’s knockout prowess versus Medina’s boxing skills and takedown game create a classic striker-vs-boxer dynamic.
• Cardio & Durability: Medina may outlast early flurries, but Todorovic’s early-fight explosiveness could prove decisive.
• Exploitable Gaps: Todorovic’s takedown defense and Medina’s striking inefficiency form the battleground for control—wrestling exchanges could swing momentum significantly.

This contrast in styles and statistical profiles sets the stage for a compelling middleweight battle where each fighter’s strengths will be tested against the other’s vulnerabilities.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Dusko Todorovic (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: -330
  • BetOnline.ag: -300
  • DraftKings: -305

• Jose Daniel Medina (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +250
  • DraftKings: +245

At present, Todorovic is a strong favorite across the board, trading around -300 to -330, while Medina sits firmly on the underdog line in the +240 to +250 range. The widest disparity is at BetOnline.ag, where you can back Medina at +250 or Todorovic at -300, making it the best sportsbook for both underdog and favorite plays.

Line Movement Analysis

• Dusko Todorovic

  • August 17 (DraftKings): -265
  • August 17 (BetOnline.ag): -260
  • September 1 (DraftKings): -305
  • September 1 (FanDuel): -330

  Todorovic’s line has steadily lengthened from -260 to -330, indicating increased money and sharp action on the favorite. Sharp bettors have driven the price down significantly, reflecting growing confidence in his ability to dictate this matchup.

• Jose Daniel Medina

  • August 17 (DraftKings): +215
  • August 17 (BetOnline.ag): +220
  • September 1 (DraftKings): +245
  • September 1 (FanDuel): +240

  Medina’s odds have slipped from +215 to +250 at BetOnline.ag, suggesting the market is devaluing his upset potential in response to heavy backing of Todorovic. This drift makes the underdog line more attractive for contrarian bettors looking for a bigger payout.

Who’s the Underdog & Where to Bet

• Underdog: Jose Daniel Medina (+250 on BetOnline.ag)
• Favorite: Dusko Todorovic (-300 on BetOnline.ag)

For the best value, shop around:

• Favorite Play: BetOnline.ag at -300 (vs. -330 elsewhere)
• Underdog Play: BetOnline.ag at +250 (vs. +240/245 elsewhere)

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

If you bet $1,000 on:

• Dusko Todorovic at -330 (FanDuel):

  • Profit: $303
  • Total Return: $1,303
  • Implied Chance: ~77%

• Dusko Todorovic at -300 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: $333
  • Total Return: $1,333
  • Implied Chance: ~75%

• Jose Daniel Medina at +240 (FanDuel):

  • Profit: $2,400
  • Total Return: $3,400
  • Implied Chance: ~29%

• Jose Daniel Medina at +250 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: $2,500
  • Total Return: $3,500
  • Implied Chance: ~29%

Key Takeaways

• Line Drift: Sharp money has tilted toward Todorovic, driving his odds more negative and extending Medina’s underdog line.
• Best Books: BetOnline.ag currently offers the most favorable lines for both fighters.
• Risk vs. Reward: A $1,000 wager on Medina at +250 returns $3,500 if he pulls off the upset, while a $1,000 play on Todorovic at -300 nets a safer $333 profit.

Whether you lean toward the high-probability favorite or chase a lucrative underdog payday, the current market presents clear value opportunities for both sides of this middleweight matchup.