Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule: UFC Betting Odds & Analysis

Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule Fight Analysis

Get ready for an intriguing flyweight showdown on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva, set to take place at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on Saturday, September 13, 2025, with the first fight bell scheduled to ring at 7:00 PM CT. This bout pits two dynamic 125-pound competitors – Luis Gurule (Blue Corner) and Jesus Santos Aguilar (Red Corner) – in what promises to be a fast-paced, high‐intensity clash to kick off an action-packed fight night.

Fight Details and Event Context

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva
• Date & Time: September 13, 2025 • 7:00 PM CT
• Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
• Card Position: Preliminary Card, Flyweight Division
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), UFC Fight Pass (International)

The Favorite: Luis Gurule

UFC newcomer Luis Gurule (10-1-0) enters the Octagon as the clear betting favorite.

• Opening Odds: –185 (BetOnline.ag), –200 (FanDuel), –192 (DraftKings)
• Strengths:
  • Knockout Power: 5 KO/TKO victories
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 49%
  • Strike Defense: 58%
  • First-Round Finishes: 3
• UFC Debut: April 5, 2025
• Last Appearance: A second-round KO loss to Ode Osbourne, where Gurule showcased heart before being stopped at 1:54 of Round 2
• Profile: At 31 years old, the Denver native brings a well-rounded arsenal and evident power, making him a formidable opponent early in the fight.

The Underdog: Jesus Santos Aguilar

On the other side stands Jesus Santos Aguilar (11-3-0), who despite being the underdog, cannot be underestimated:

• Opening Odds: +160 (BetOnline.ag & DraftKings), +154 (FanDuel)
• Strengths:
  • Submission Specialist: 7 submission victories
  • Takedown Accuracy: 35%
  • First-Round Finishes: 4
• UFC Tenure: Debuted February 4, 2023
• Recent Form: Coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rafael Estevam but has rebounded with impressive finishes, including a 17-second TKO over Shannon Ross
• Profile: The 28-year-old from Ensenada, Mexico, is known for his grappling pedigree (“Freestyle” style) and precision in scrambles.

Key Storylines

1. Power vs. Technique: Gurule’s striking prowess versus Aguilar’s ground-game excellence
2. Momentum Shift: Can Aguilar bounce back and exploit Gurule’s recent KO loss?
3. Experience Factor: Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC cage – which young contender will seize the moment?

As we count down to fight night, the betting lines favor Luis Gurule, but Jesus Aguilar’s submission threat and veteran toughness make this a compelling upset candidate. Expect an explosive opening act as these two flyweights leave everything in the Octagon under the bright lights of San Antonio.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

In this flyweight clash, Luis Gurule and Jesus Santos Aguilar bring contrasting skill sets and career arcs into the Octagon. Below is a closer look at their backgrounds, recent form, and statistical strengths and weaknesses.

Luis Gurule: The American Powerhouse

• Age: 31
• Country: United States (Denver, CO)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded striker with heavy hands
• UFC Debut: April 5, 2025

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

1. Loss vs. Ode Osbourne (KO/TKO, R2 1:54, Apr. 5, 2025)
2. N/A – This will be Gurule’s second UFC outing; he entered the promotion at 10-0 before facing Osbourne

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: 5 of his 10 wins via KO/TKO, showcasing fight-ending striking
• Significant Strike Accuracy (49%): Nearly half of attempted power and precision strikes land
• Significant Strike Defense (58%): He avoids over half of his opponent’s significant strikes
• First-Round Finishes (3): Tends to start fast, imposing his striking early

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (50%): Defends only half of takedown attempts, leaving openings for strong wrestlers
• Takedown Offense (17%): Low wrestling output means fewer scrambling opportunities
• Average Fight Time (10:57): His fights often extend beyond the early onslaught, where his power edge slightly diminishes
• Experience Level: Just one UFC bout; adapting to the Octagon speed and judges’ criteria remains a work in progress

Jesus Santos Aguilar: The Mexican Grappling Savant

• Age: 28
• Country: Mexico (Ensenada)
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestler with high-level submissions
• UFC Debut: February 4, 2023

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

1. Loss vs. Rafael Estevam (Decision – Unanimous, Feb. 15, 2025)
2. Win vs. Stewart Nicoll (Submission, R1 2:39, Aug. 17, 2024)
3. Win vs. Mateus Mendonca (Split Decision, Feb. 24, 2024)
4. Win vs. Shannon Ross (KO/TKO, R1 0:17, Jul. 8, 2023)
5. Loss vs. Tatsuro Taira (Submission, R1 4:20, Feb. 5, 2023)

Strengths:

• Submission Prowess: 7 of 11 wins by submission; constantly hunting chokes and joint locks
• Takedown Accuracy (35%): Converts over one-third of his takedown attempts into ground control
• First-Round Finishes (4): Has ended fights quickly with either chokes or ground-and-pound
• Significant Strike Defense (59%): Avoids a majority of incoming strikes, closing distance safely

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (40%): Lower resistance to opponent wrestling—vulnerable if Gurule shoots for a takedown
• Strike Accuracy (46%): Slightly less precise than Gurule, potentially leaving him open in a striking exchange
• Knockout Power (1 KO): Relies heavily on grappling; striking finishes are rare
• Cardio in Later Rounds: Two of his three losses came via extended engagements; stamina could be tested if the bout goes deep

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Both men enter this bout with clear game plans: Gurule will look to keep the fight standing and unleash his heavy shots early, while Aguilar aims to grind, shoot for takedowns, and lock in submissions. Statistically, Aguilar’s grappling-heavy offense could exploit Gurule’s middling takedown defense, whereas Gurule’s power and striking volume challenge Aguilar’s less-proven striking chin. As they each seek to impose their strengths and mask their vulnerabilities, this flyweight tussle promises a compelling chess match of knockout artistry versus submission craft.

Odds and Betting Trends

A close look at the current betting odds and line movement for Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule reveals a fairly steady market favoring the American powerhouse, with the Mexican submission specialist holding underdog value. Below we break down how the odds stack up across major sportsbooks, examine any notable line shifts, calculate potential payouts on a $1,000 wager, and recommend the best places to lock in your bet.

Current Betting Odds

• Luis Gurule (Favorite)
  • BetOnline.ag: -185
  • FanDuel: -200
  • DraftKings: -192
• Jesus Santos Aguilar (Underdog)
  • BetOnline.ag: +160
  • FanDuel: +154
  • DraftKings: +160

Gurule is installed as the clear favorite, trading between -185 and -200. Aguilar sits in the +154 to +160 range, offering underdog value to bettors willing to back his grappling pedigree.

Line Movement and Trends

Since the odds first went up, there have been no dramatic swings on either side.

• Luis Gurule: Opened around -185 at BetOnline.ag and has remained in that neighborhood. FanDuel’s early -200 price has held firm, while DraftKings tweaked slightly to -192.
• Jesus Aguilar: Began at +160 on BetOnline.ag, dipped to +154 at FanDuel, then reverted to +160 at DraftKings.

Overall, the market consensus is stable: bettors and oddsmakers alike see Gurule in control of this matchup, with Aguilar’s line reflecting a consistent ~38–39% upset probability.

Payout and Probability Analysis

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at the best available lines today, here’s what you stand to win:

• Bet $1,000 on Gurule at –185 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit: $540.54
  • Total Return: $1,540.54
• Bet $1,000 on Aguilar at +160 (BetOnline.ag or DraftKings):
  • Profit: $1,600
  • Total Return: $2,600

Those odds imply roughly a 65% chance of victory for Gurule versus a 38% chance for Aguilar, making each side’s payout and implied probability a key consideration for value-seekers.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Gurule): BetOnline.ag at -185 offers the most favorable line, edging out DraftKings’ -192 and FanDuel’s -200.
• Underdog (Aguilar): Both BetOnline.ag and DraftKings post +160, superior to FanDuel’s +154, maximizing potential profit on an Aguilar upset.

Given the minimal line movement and tight clustering of odds, BetOnline.ag emerges as the single best sportsbook for this fight, providing top-tier pricing on both sides. DraftKings is a close second if you prefer their user interface or promotional offers.

Whether you lean toward Gurule’s power or Aguilar’s grappling threat, these odds and payouts should guide your decision and bankroll management heading into fight night.