Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon fight breakdown

Event Details

Mark your calendars for Saturday, September 13, 2025, when the UFC returns to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, for UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva. Although the main event will feature the exciting clash of Renato Lopes and Vinicius “Mamute” Silva, all eyes will also be on the lightweight co-feature: Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon. Slated to kick off at approximately 10:00 PM CT, this five-round bout promises high-octane action as two contrasting styles collide on the Main Card.

Fighters Overview

• Jared Gordon (21-7-0)
  • Hometown: New York, United States
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Debut: June 26, 2017
  • Fighting Style: Freestyle striker
  • Key Stats:
  – 8 KOs, 2 submissions
  – Significant Strike Accuracy: 56%
  – Takedown Defense: 63%
  • Recent Form:
  – Coming off a first-round TKO over Thiago Moises on May 17, 2025
  – Has alternated wins and losses in his last five fights, displaying resilience and knockout power

• Rafa Garcia (17-4-0)
  • Hometown: Brawley, United States (fighting out of Mexico)
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Debut: March 13, 2021
  • Fighting Style: Boxer with strong grappling pedigree
  • Key Stats:
  – 1 KO, 9 submissions
  – Take Down Accuracy: 43%
  – Takedown Defense: 77%
  • Recent Form:
  – Earned a unanimous decision over Vinc Pichel on March 29, 2025
  – Showed crisp boxing and improved defensive wrestling in his last outing

Odds & Betting Outlook

As the opening bell approaches, sportsbooks have firmly installed Jared Gordon as the -225 favorite (FanDuel), while Rafa Garcia enters as the +172 underdog. These lines reflect the betting public’s respect for Gordon’s recent knockout surge and veteran savvy. That said, Garcia’s underdog price offers significant value for bettors willing to back his well-rounded game—especially if he can neutralize Gordon’s power early and drag the contest into the later rounds.

With both athletes possessing first-round finishing ability (Gordon: 4; Garcia: 6), there’s also potential for an explosive start. If Garcia can implement his takedowns and top control, he may exploit Gordon’s takedown defense (63%). Conversely, Gordon’s striking accuracy (56%) and volume could keep Garcia at bay and secure another highlight-reel finish.

Why This Bout Matters

• Gordon seeks to build momentum towards a top-15 ranking and prove he still has the power to finish elite competition.
• Garcia aims to snap a two-fight losing skid in the UFC and showcase that his diverse skill set can outpoint or submit seasoned veterans.

Whether you’re a casual fan, a seasoned bettor, or simply love technical fight craft, Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon is a lightweight showdown you won’t want to miss. Make your pick wisely—this fight could swing the fortunes of both men’s UFC careers.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Jared Gordon: The Veteran Striker

Age: 36
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle striker
UFC Debut: June 26, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Thiago Moises (KO/TKO, R1 – May 17, 2025)
• Loss vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Split Decision – June 22, 2024)
• Win vs. Mark Madsen (KO/TKO, R1 – Nov. 11, 2023)
• Loss vs. Bobby Green (Could Not Continue, R1 – Apr. 22, 2023)
• Loss vs. Paddy Pimblett (Unanimous Decision – Dec. 10, 2022)

Over his last five outings, Gordon has alternated flashes of explosive power with setbacks on the scorecards. His recent first-round knockout of Moises highlights his ability to end fights quickly, but split decisions and a stoppage loss indicate occasional lapses in endurance and defensive consistency.

Strengths:

• Striking Accuracy (56%): Lands more than half his significant strikes, leveraging crisp combos.
• Finishing Power: 8 of his 21 wins by KO/TKO, including 4 first-round stoppages.
• Balanced Defense: Holds a respectable 57% Significant Strike Defense, able to evade and counter.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (63%): While average, he has been taken down by grapplers who can impose pace.
• Grappling Offense (33% TD Accuracy): Limited offensive wrestling makes him vulnerable to relentless clinch work.
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: Fights that drag past the second round have occasionally swung away on the judges’ cards.

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Rafa Garcia: The Gritty Grappler

Age: 30
Country: Mexico (born in Brawley, California)
Fighting Style: Boxer with strong submission pedigree
UFC Debut: March 13, 2021

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Vinc Pichel (Unanimous Decision – Mar. 29, 2025)
• Loss vs. Grant Dawson (KO/TKO, R2 – Oct. 12, 2024)
• Win vs. Clay Guida (Unanimous Decision – Apr. 15, 2023)
• Win vs. Hayisaer Maheshate (Unanimous Decision – Dec. 17, 2022)
• Loss vs. Drakkar Klose (Unanimous Decision – Jul. 30, 2022)

Garcia has shown consistent poise in five-round affairs, outworking veterans like Pichel and Guida. His lone stoppage loss to Dawson underscores a susceptibility to heavy counter-strikers, but his unanimous decision victories highlight solid volume striking and relentless pressure.

Strengths:

• Takedown Defense (77%): Elite level, stymies wrestlers and forces stand-up exchanges.
• Submission Game: 9 submission wins, capable of capitalizing on scrambles and top control.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 13:30 and 6 first-round finishes demonstrate both gas tank and urgency.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy (44%): Below-average connect rate could lead to wasted energy when pressed on the feet.
• Power Output: Only 1 KO on record, meaning he relies on volume rather than one-punch stoppages.
• Early Vulnerability: Dawson stoppage suggests potential defensive lapses in initial rounds.

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Head-to-Head Implications:
This clash pits Gordon’s explosive one-punch power and striking precision against Garcia’s defensive wrestling and submission hunting. If Gordon can keep the fight upright and land heavy counters, he will control the narrative. Conversely, Garcia must avoid Gordon’s power bursts, establish sustained pressure, and look for takedowns to exploit his edge in grappling. Bettors should weigh Gordon’s favorite status against Garcia’s value as a +172 underdog with high-level defense and cardio.

Odds Analysis & Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Jared Gordon is the firm favorite across major sportsbooks, while Rafa Garcia carries underdog status. Here’s the snapshot of the most competitive lines:

• Jared Gordon:
  • FanDuel: -225 (best price for favorites)
  • BetOnline.ag: -240
  • DraftKings: -245

• Rafa Garcia:
  • FanDuel: +172
  • BetOnline.ag: +205 (best price for underdogs)
  • DraftKings: +200

The gap between -225 and +172 on FanDuel represents roughly a 397-point swing. That sizable spread underscores Gordon’s status as the betting favorite and Garcia’s appeal as a high-value long shot.

Odds History & Line Movement

A look at how these lines have shifted over the past few weeks reveals clear momentum toward Gordon:

• Jared Gordon
  • Aug. 17: –190 (BetOnline.ag & DraftKings)
  • Aug. 26: –210 (BetOnline.ag), –218 (DraftKings)
  • Sept. 2: –225 (FanDuel), –240 (BetOnline.ag), –245 (DraftKings)

• Rafa Garcia
  • Aug. 17: +165 (BetOnline.ag), +160 (DraftKings)
  • Aug. 26: +180 (BetOnline.ag & DraftKings)
  • Sept. 2: +172 (FanDuel), +205 (BetOnline.ag), +200 (DraftKings)

Key observations:

• Gordon’s line has steadily lengthened from around –190 to as short as –245, indicating sharp money or heavy public betting on the favorite.
• Garcia’s price has climbed from +160 to +205, suggesting bettors are backing the dog in meaningful volume or unbalanced action has forced sportsbooks to inflate his payout.

This substantial move on both sides signals that bettors have gravitated toward clear narratives: Gordon’s knockout power and veteran savvy versus Garcia’s grappling upside and underdog value.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• If you’re siding with Gordon, FanDuel’s –225 offers the most favorable negative line.
• For Garcia, BetOnline.ag’s +205 is the clear winner for underdog backers.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Implied Chances

• Betting $1,000 on Jared Gordon at –225 would return approximately $1,444 (your $1,000 stake + $444 profit).
• Betting $1,000 on Rafa Garcia at +205 would return approximately $3,050 (your $1,000 stake + $2,050 profit).

Based on those lines, Gordon is viewed as the roughly 69% win probability pick, whereas Garcia sits near a 33% win probability. Remember, these percentages reflect the betting market’s collective expectations and not the definitive outcome inside the Octagon.

Whether you lean toward Gordon’s finishing power or Garcia’s disruptive grappling, be sure to shop around for the best line—and lock it in before the odds shift again.