Dvalishvili vs Sandhagen Odds, Analysis & AI Pick | UFC 320

Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen Fight Analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight title is on the line when Georgian powerhouse Merab Dvalishvili defends against dynamic American contender Cory Sandhagen in the co-main event of UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2. This high-stakes showdown is set for Saturday, October 4th, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the main card slated to begin at 10 PM ET / 7 PM PT. As the clock ticks down, fight fans and sharp bettors alike have already started circling this matchup, with each man bringing contrasting styles and career trajectories into the Octagon.

Dvalishvili, the reigning bantamweight champion and #3 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, enters this contest as a heavy favorite. Known for his relentless pace, suffocating wrestling, and unparalleled cardio, he has reigned supreme in the 135-pound division since capturing gold. Across 24 career fights, Dvalishvili has amassed a 20-4-0 record, with his lone blemishes coming against the division’s elite. His signature style — high-volume grappling mixed with relentless forward pressure — has overwhelmed opponents, forcing them to survive rather than thrive.

Counting against him is Cory Sandhagen, a #4 ranked bantamweight and one of the division’s most creative strikers. The American’s career résumé boasts explosive knockouts, slick counters, and an ever-evolving arsenal that keeps adversaries guessing. With an 18-5-0 record, Sandhagen has finished eight foes by knockout and three by submission, showcasing his versatility and finishing ability. Despite his skill, he enters as the underdog, tasked with dethroning a champion who rarely leaves room for error.

Spotlight on the Favorite and the Underdog

• Favorite: Merab Dvalishvili (-420 to -430)
  • Record: 20-4-0
  • Wrestling prowess: 36% takedown accuracy, 83% takedown defense
  • Signature: Unrelenting pace, suffocating top control

• Underdog: Cory Sandhagen (+300 to +335)
  • Record: 18-5-0
  • Striking prowess: 45% significant strike accuracy, 57% defense
  • Signature: Creative striking, knockout power, agility

Dvalishvili’s odds reflect his dominance: at -420 (bet $420 to win $100), he is firmly installed as the favorite across major sportsbooks like Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Conversely, Sandhagen’s +320 line (bet $100 to win $320) underlines his status as the dangerous challenger—as one punch or a slick counter could dramatically swing the title picture.

What’s at Stake

For Dvalishvili, a successful defense means cementing his legacy atop the bantamweight ranks, extending a reign defined by attrition and championship-level toughness. For Sandhagen, victory would mark a seismic shift—overthrowing a prolific grappler to claim gold and ascend into true pound-for-pound contention.

This clash of styles — relentless wrestling versus inventive striking — promises to deliver fireworks. Whether you’re splitting rounds, parlaying the underdog, or backing the champion’s consistency, this bout will be a must-watch and a prime betting opportunity on fight night. Don’t miss our full breakdown and pick-’em guide to get the edge on your UFC 320 wagers.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Merab Dvalishvili

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Georgia
• Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling
• UFC Debut: Dec. 9, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jun. 7, 2025 – Loss vs. Sean O’Malley (Title Bout)
2. Jan. 18, 2025 – Win vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Sep. 14, 2024 – Win vs. Sean O’Malley (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Feb. 17, 2024 – Win vs. Henry Cejudo (Decision – Unanimous)
5. Mar. 11, 2023 – Win vs. Petr Yan (Decision – Unanimous)

Strengths

• Wrestling & Grappling: 36% takedown accuracy combined with an elite 83% takedown defense makes Dvalishvili extremely difficult to keep off his back or finish once he secures top position.
• Cardio & Pace: Averaging a 16:36 fight time in bouts that often go deep, he maintains relentless pressure, outworking opponents in later rounds.
• Durability: Despite his aggressive style, he has never been finished in the UFC, showcasing a granite chin and iron will.

Weaknesses

• Striking Output: With only 3 career knockouts, his offensive striking (42% significant strike accuracy) is serviceable but lacks fight-ending power.
• Striking Defense: Allowing a 56% significant strike defense, Dvalishvili can be caught by more precise or varied strikers when he ventures forward.
• First-Round Vulnerability: No first-round finishes indicate it can take him time to implement his grappling; a fast starter may rack up early success before he settles into his rhythm.

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Cory Sandhagen

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Dynamic Striker / Kickboxing-MMA Hybrid
• UFC Debut: Jan. 28, 2018

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. May 3, 2025 – Win vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (KO/TKO, R2)
2. Aug. 3, 2024 – Loss vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Aug. 5, 2023 – Win vs. Rob Font (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Mar. 25, 2023 – Win vs. Marlon Vera (Decision – Split)
5. Sep. 17, 2022 – Win vs. Song Yadong (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, R4)

Strengths

• Striking Precision & Variety: A 45% significant strike accuracy and creativity with elbows, kicks, and counters keep opponents off-balance.
• Finishing Ability: Eight knockouts in 18 wins indicate genuine power; he can change the fight trajectory with one well-timed strike.
• Footwork & Movement: Exceptional lateral movement and switching stances allow him to pick angles and avoid prolonged wrestling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: A 63% takedown defense leaves openings for elite grapplers like Dvalishvili to clinch and drag him to the mat.
• Wrestling Susceptibility: His takedown accuracy (35%) is modest; against relentless wrestlers he may struggle to keep the fight standing.
• Cardio in Deep Rounds: While improved, his average fight time (14:02) suggests he can gas if forced to wrestle continuously over three to five rounds.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Grapple vs. Strike: Dvalishvili’s game plan is clear: smother Sandhagen with takedowns and top pressure. Cory’s path to victory runs through slick footwork, sharp counters, and preventing the fight from going to the mat.
• Pace & Pressure: Merab’s relentless pace will test Cory’s cardio. If Sandhagen can weather early onslaughts and fire off combinations, he may exploit gaps in the champion’s striking defense.
• Tactical Key: Sandhagen must use range—leg kicks, teeps, and lateral movement—to neutralize takedowns, while Dvalishvili needs to cut angles and chain wrestle to sap Cory’s output.

This matchup pits championship-level wrestling against elite striking artistry. Both fighters bring elite skill sets and contrasting strengths; the victor will be the one who imposes his game plan most effectively.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

• Merab Dvalishvili: –420 to –430
• Cory Sandhagen: +300 to +335

Across major sportsbooks, the champion Merab Dvalishvili is installed as a substantial favorite, with his best available line at –430 on FanDuel (bet $430 to win $100). Conversely, Cory Sandhagen is firmly the underdog, topping out at +335 on BetOnline.ag (bet $100 to win $335).

The odds gap between Dvalishvili and Sandhagen sits around 765 cents (–430 vs. +335), underscoring the betting market’s confidence in the Georgian champion’s wrestling-heavy control. Sandhagen’s +335 underdog price reflects his upset potential—one well-timed strike or defensive scramble could flip the script.

Line Movement & Notable Swings

Merab Dvalishvili (–380 → –500 → –450 → –430)

• Early lines on Caesars opened at –380, sharpened to –450 following wave bets on Dvalishvili’s takedown dominance, then settled at –420 to –430 across top books.
• BetRivers showed the most volatility: dipping to –385, surging to –670 at one point as sharps poured money in, then retracing to –420.

Cory Sandhagen (+260 → +335 → +300)

• Caesars initially offered +260, trimmed out to +325 as contrarian bettors backed Sandhagen’s last-minute sharpness.
• BetRivers saw a wild ride from +295 to +480, before evening out around +420.
• BetOnline.ag holds the highest public line at +335, attractive for underdog backers.

These swings indicate heavy early support on both sides: fans of Dvalishvili’s relentless pace and those rooting for Sandhagen’s striking flair both committed sizable funds, prompting oddsmakers to adjust.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Favorite (Dvalishvili): FanDuel at –430 provides the juiciest price among major U.S. books.
• Underdog (Sandhagen): BetOnline.ag at +335 offers the highest upside for a $100 bet.

Choosing the right bookmaker can add significant value, especially when lines shift rapidly in response to betting patterns.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bets & Implied Probabilities

• $1,000 on Dvalishvili (–430)
  • Potential Profit: $232 (Total Return: $1,232)
  • Implied Win Probability: 81%

• $1,000 on Sandhagen (+335)
  • Potential Profit: $3,350 (Total Return: $4,350)
  • Implied Win Probability: 23%

What This Means for Bettors

• Value Play: Sandhagen at +335 remains attractive for bettors seeking high upside. If you believe his movement and timing can neutralize Dvalishvili’s grappling, the underdog ticket could pay dividends.
• Safe Play: Dvalishvili at –430 represents a lower-risk option. Backers confident in his championship-level wrestling and cardio grind will accept the modest return.

With lines still in flux, monitor late money flows—and remember to shop around for the best odds. Whether you favor Merab’s suffocating style or Cory’s explosive counters, understanding line movement and implied probabilities is key to maximizing your UFC 320 wager.