Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr | UFC 320 Odds & Pick

Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Fight Analysis

Introduction

The light heavyweight division’s next blockbuster showdown is set for UFC 320 on October 5, 2025, when Jiri Prochazka (#2) collides with Khalil Rountree Jr. (#4) on the Main Card at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The co-main event slot often breeds fireworks, but this clash of knockout specialists promises to steal the show well before the night is over. From the opening bell, fans and bettors alike will be tuning in to see which finisher imposes his will in what could be one of the most explosive light heavyweight bouts of the year.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC 320 – Ankalaev vs Pereira 2
• Date & Time: October 5, 2025 (Main Card begins at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT)
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
• Card Position: Main Card, Co-Main Event

Betting Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Jiri Prochazka (-175 to -205)
• Underdog: Khalil Rountree Jr. (+142 to +163)

Across major sportsbooks, Prochazka commands respect as the favorite, reflecting his status as a former champion and one of MMA’s most dynamic finishers. Rountree Jr., despite his devastating power and seven first-round stoppages, enters as the underdog, offering a tempting +150-plus payout for those banking on his explosive right hand.

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Over the past two years, Prochazka has cemented himself as a top-two light heavyweight, boasting a 31-5-1 career ledger with 27 knockouts and an average fight time of just under 11 minutes. His unorthodox karate base, 80-inch reach, and relentless finishing instinct make him a constant threat to end the fight in spectacular fashion.

In contrast, Rountree Jr. has carved out his own reputation as a pure knockout artist. With a 15-6 record, 10 of those wins by KO, and a remarkable 7 first-round finishes, the Los Angeles native brings elite punching power to the cage. His 76.5-inch reach and 41% significant strike accuracy leave no doubt he can hurt and finish anybody in this weight class.

As the lights dim and the cage door locks, the betting market has already spoken: Prochazka is expected to continue his ascent, while Rountree Jr. looks to defy the odds and shake up the division. Whether you’re a die-hard fan, a casual viewer, or a sharp bettor, this matchup delivers intrigue on every front. Strap in for a night of head-snapping striking exchanges, unpredictable angles, and the ever-looming possibility of a highlight-reel finish.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr. can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 can be found on the Ankalaev vs Pereira 2 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Jiri Prochazka

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: Czechia
• Fighting Style: Karate-based striking specialist
• UFC Debut: July 11, 2020

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Jamahal Hill (KO/TKO, Round 3 – Jan. 18, 2025)
2. Loss vs Alex Pereira (KO/TKO, Round 2 – Jun. 29, 2024)
3. Win vs Aleksandar Rakić (KO/TKO, Round 2 – Apr. 13, 2024)
4. Loss vs Alex Pereira (KO/TKO, Round 2 – Nov. 11, 2023)
5. Win vs Glover Teixeira (Submission, Round 5 – Jun. 11, 2022)

Procházka enters his fight with Rountree Jr. riding a 3-2 run over his last five outings, alternating devastating first and second-round finishes with two stoppage losses to reigning champion Alex Pereira. His recent win over Jamahal Hill showcased his unpredictability and knockout power, reasserting his status as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers.

Strengths

• Elite Striking Power: 27 of his 31 victories come by KO/TKO, with 23 first-round finishes.
• High Accuracy: 56% significant strike accuracy, allowing him to land power shots from unorthodox angles.
• Takedown Threat: 60% takedown accuracy, a rarity among light heavyweights, keeps opponents honest at range.
• Reach Advantage: 80″ arm span and 45″ leg reach facilitate control of distance.

Weaknesses

• Defensive Gaps: 43% significant strike defense leaves him susceptible to crisp counters, as seen in both losses to Pereira.
• Susceptible to Power: Two KO/TKO defeats in title fights highlight potential durability concerns against elite punchers.
• Pace & Cardio: A tendency toward explosive bursts early can lead to slower recovery in later rounds—his average fight time is 10:47.

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Khalil Rountree Jr.

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA striker with a relentless boxing pedigree
• UFC Debut: July 9, 2016

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Jamahal Hill (Decision – Unanimous, 5 rounds – Jun. 21, 2025)
2. Loss vs Alex Pereira (KO/TKO, Round 4 – Oct. 5, 2024)
3. Win vs Anthony Smith (KO/TKO, Round 3 – Dec. 9, 2023)
4. Win vs Chris Daukaus (KO/TKO, Round 1 – Aug. 12, 2023)
5. Win vs Dustin Jacoby (Decision – Split, 3 rounds – Oct. 29, 2022)

Rountree Jr. boasts a 4-1 mark over his last five, highlighted by a unanimous decision upset over Jamahal Hill and three stoppages—two inside three minutes. His lone setback to Alex Pereira exposed defensive vulnerabilities but did little to dampen his standing as a top contender.

Strengths

• One-Punch Power: 10 of 15 wins by KO/TKO, including seven first-round finishes—he ranks among the division’s hardest hitters.
• Durability: Maintains good chin and recovery, surviving heavy offense en route to the decision victory over Hill.
• Defensive Balance: 50% significant strike defense shows solid head movement and footwork against high-level strikers.

Weaknesses

• Striking Efficiency: 41% significant strike accuracy indicates a volume rather than precision approach—missed shots can leave openings.
• No Grappling Threat: 0% takedown accuracy and a modest 59% takedown defense suggest a lack of wrestling tools to change the fight’s terrain.
• Cardio Concerns: Early finishes are his forte; in extended battles, his output can drop, potentially inviting late pressure.

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This matchup pits two of the light heavyweight division’s most explosive finishers against each other. Procházka’s karate-influenced precision and takedown versatility collide head-on with Rountree Jr.’s raw boxing power and relentless forward pressure. The question becomes: Can Procházka’s defensive lapses be exploited by Rountree’s knockout artistry, or will the Czech phenom’s reach and accuracy carve out a highlight-reel finish of his own?

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Favorite: Jiri Prochazka
  • Odds Range: –175 (BetOnline.ag) to –205 (BetRivers)
• Underdog: Khalil Rountree Jr.
  • Odds Range: +142 (FanDuel) to +163 (BetRivers)

Across the major sportsbooks, Prochazka is firmly installed as the favorite, reflecting the market’s respect for his championship pedigree and finishing prowess. Rountree Jr., meanwhile, sits comfortably in underdog territory, offering +150-plus value to those backing his explosive power and recent upset of Jamahal Hill.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Underdog Value: BetRivers (+163)
• Favorite Value: BetOnline.ag (–175)

If you’re targeting the bigger payout on the underdog, BetRivers’ +163 line on Rountree Jr. is the standout. For those backing Prochazka, BetOnline.ag’s –175 gives you the most favorable price on the favorite, maximizing potential return.

Line Movement Analysis

Khalil Rountree Jr.

• Sept. 9 (BetRivers): +143
• Sept. 12 (DraftKings): +164 ⬆️ significant jump
• Sept. 17 (FanDuel): +152
• Sept. 19 (BetOnline.ag): +155
• Sept. 20 (Caesars): +150

Rountree Jr.’s line opened around +143, saw a sharp move out to +164 mid-September—perhaps driven by sharp money or prop bets—and then settled back into the +150–155 range as the fight grew nearer.

Jiri Prochazka

• Sept. 9 (BetRivers): –180
• Sept. 12 (DraftKings): –198 ⬆️ favorite gets shorter
• Sept. 17 (FanDuel): –196
• Sept. 19 (BetOnline.ag): –175
• Sept. 20 (Caesars): –185

Prochazka’s opening line near –180 briefly shortened to –198 on DraftKings—indicating strong early support—before drifting back toward the –175 to –185 window as balanced action came in.

Payout Scenarios (Risk $1,000)

• Bet $1,000 on Rountree Jr. at +163 (BetRivers):
  • Profit: $1,630
  • Total Return: $2,630
• Bet $1,000 on Prochazka at –175 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Profit: $571
  • Total Return: $1,571

Implied Win Probabilities

• Jiri Prochazka (–175): ~64% chance to win
• Khalil Rountree Jr. (+163): ~38% chance to win

Probabilities are derived from the current moneyline odds and rounded to the nearest percent.

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Whether you’re hunting for value on the underdog or cementing your confidence in the favorite, understanding line movement and shopping around for the best odds is crucial. In this matchup, Rountree Jr. offers the more attractive payout for risk-takers at BetRivers, while Procházka backers will maximize their return at BetOnline.ag. Keep an eye on future line shifts—late money could swing prices again as fight week unfolds.