Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes: UFC Fight Odds & Analysis

Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes fight analysis

Introduction

The flyweight division lights up early on August 2, 2025, when two Brazilian contenders—Rafael Estevam and Felipe Bunes—square off on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira. Hosted at the state-of-the-art UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV, the prelims will kick off at 10:00 PM UTC (3:00 PM PT), with Estevam vs. Bunes slated as one of the opening attractions. Both fighters are looking to leave a lasting impression: Estevam, the 28-year-old unbeaten prospect, aims to extend his perfect 13-0 run; Bunes, the 35-year-old seasoned submission specialist, seeks to rebound after a split UFC record of 1–1.

This matchup presents a compelling contrast in styles and trajectories. Rafael Estevam burst onto the UFC scene in April 2023 and has since shown a well-rounded skill set—boasting 58% significant strike accuracy, 36% takedown accuracy and a stout 60% takedown defense. His methodical approach and championship pedigree have made him a heavy favorite across all major books. On the other side, Felipe Bunes brings a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu arsenal that’s responsible for nine of his 14 career victories by submission. While his striking is less refined (53% accuracy, 41% defense), Bunes’ first-round finishing rate (9 first-round stoppages) makes him a dangerous underdog capable of ending the fight at any moment.

Event Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira (Preliminary Card)
• Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, 2025 • 10:00 PM UTC / 3:00 PM PT
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Weight Class: Flyweight (up to 125 lb)
• Stage: Preliminary card (second fight of the evening)
• Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Betting Lines: Favorite and Underdog

As the betting markets opened and adjusted over the past week, the consensus is clear:

• Rafael Estevam:

  • Odds range from –500 (FanDuel, DraftKings) to –460 (BetUS, BetOnline.ag)
  • Implied win probability: ~83–83.3%
  • Attributes: Undefeated 13-0 record, solid wrestling base, high striking accuracy

• Felipe Bunes:

  • Odds range from +340 (FanDuel) to +390 (DraftKings)
  • Implied win probability: ~20–22.7%
  • Attributes: Submission specialist with nine career subs, lightning-fast first-round finishes

Estevam’s unbeaten streak and balanced striking-wrestling mix have bettors leaning heavily in his favor, positioning him as a robust play for risk-averse punters. Conversely, Bunes’ underdog status at +340 presents an enticing value proposition for those banking on a big upset via his lethal ground game. With both fighters hungry to climb the flyweight ladder, this opening bout promises fireworks—whether by slick grappling exchanges, crisp striking, or a sudden submission finish.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Rafael Estevam Profile

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 28
• Country: Brazil (Macapá)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a strong wrestling base and crisp striking. Since debuting in April 2023, Estevam has showcased balanced offense and defense, blending takedowns with high-percentage striking.

Recent Form (Last 3–5 Bouts)

1. Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar (Feb. 15, 2025) – Win via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
2. Charles Johnson vs. Estevam (Nov. 18, 2023) – Win via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
3. Prior to UFC – Built a flawless 11–0 regional record with finishes alternating between knockouts and submissions.

Estevam enters this bout riding a 13–0 undefeated streak, having demonstrated both durability in deep waters (two full-length decisions in the UFC) and finish instincts early in his career.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (58%): Connects more than half of his significant strikes, consistently outlanding opponents.
• Takedown Offense (36%) & Defense (60%): Mixes level changes to set up takedowns, yet avoids being taken down himself more than half the time.
• Cardio & Fight IQ: Average fight length of 12:28 indicates comfort in championship rounds and ability to adapt mid-fight.
• Defensive Discipline: 46% significant strike defense means fewer absorbed shots.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Early Explosiveness: Only 1 first-round finish suggests he may not have killer power to end fights quickly.
• Submission Volume: With just 3 career submissions, grappling is often focused on control rather than immediate submissions, potentially allowing high-level jiu-jitsu specialists to threaten.

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Felipe Bunes Profile

Background & Fighting Style

• Age: 35
• Country: Brazil (Natal)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist who thrives on early exchanges and ground transitions. His guard-based attacks and scrambling prowess have earned him nine submission victories.

Recent Form (Last 3–5 Bouts)

1. John­son vs. Bunes (Jan. 11, 2025) – Win via Submission (Rear-naked choke, Round 1 at 2:04)
2. Van vs. Bunes (Jan. 13, 2024) – Loss via KO/TKO (Round 2 at 4:31)
3. Pre-UFC Circuit – Compiled a 12–6 record with multiple first-round stoppages, alternating between submissions and one-punch knockouts.

Bunes has shown he can both finish and be finished. His UFC tenure stands at 1–1, but his 14–7 overall resume includes a staggering 9 first-round finishes, underscoring his “all-or-nothing” approach.

Strengths

• Submission Threat: 9 career subs, with slick transitions to armbars, chokes and leg-locks. Any scramble in early rounds can spell disaster for foes.
• Fast Finishing Ability: Average fight time of 5:48 means he hunts early and often, forcing opponents into urgent defense.
• Unpredictable Guard Pulls: Capable of dragging even strong wrestlers into scrambles where he excels.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (41%): Concedes nearly six significant strikes out of every ten, leaving him open to counters and volume.
• Takedown Defense (0%): Historically vulnerable to takedowns; his jiu-jitsu is strongest once on the mat, but he rarely stops the initial shoot.
• Cardio Beyond Round 1: With most fights ending early, his gas tank and output tend to drop if the scrap goes deeper.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This clash sets up a classic wrestler vs. grappler narrative. Estevam’s takedown defense and measured striking aim to neutralize Bunes’ early submission blitz. Conversely, Bunes will look to draw Estevam into the clinch or pull guard, exploiting any overcommitments to land a fight-ending choke. Striking exchanges favor Estevam—his higher accuracy and defense should control the stand-up—but the moment he shoots or lands heavy, Bunes’ ground IQ turns the tables. Expect a strategic chess match: Estevam hunting mid-fight control and Bunes hunting opportunities in the early scramble. Whoever enforces their game plan first will determine whether this remains a decision or ends abruptly in the opening stanza.

Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira, the betting markets have firmly installed Rafael Estevam as a heavy favorite over Felipe Bunes. Here’s a snapshot of where things stand at major sportsbooks:

• Rafael Estevam (–500 to –460)

• FanDuel: –500
• DraftKings: –520
• BetUS & BetOnline.ag: –460
• Caesars & BetRivers: –480

• Felipe Bunes (+330 to +390)

• DraftKings: +390
• FanDuel: +340
• BetUS: +345
• BetMGM, BetOnline.ag & Caesars: +360
• BetRivers: +330

Bold favorite Estevam is commanding roughly 83–84% implied win probability, while Bunes sits at 20–23% on most books. If you’re shopping for value, DraftKings currently offers the juiciest price on the underdog at +390, whereas BetUS or BetOnline.ag are your best options for squeezing the favorite at –460.

Line Movement & Sharp Action

Since the odds opened, we’ve seen modest but telling shifts:

• Estevam opened around –470 on several books a week ago, ticked as long as –520 at DraftKings mid-week, then settled around –460 to –500 as money poured in on the undefeated Brazilian.
• Bunes briefly climbed to +390 at DraftKings (indicating underdog support), but sharp money on Estevam pushed some books down to +330. Overall, Bunes’ line has tightened by about 20–30 cents across the board.

These gradual swings suggest bettors are confident in Estevam’s superior all-around game, but a pocket of value-seekers still banking on Bunes’ explosive submission upside.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

If you’re locking in $1,000 on either man at the current consensus odds at FanDuel (–500 / +340), here’s what you get back—no nerdy math, just your take:

• Rafael Estevam (–500)
  • Profit: $200
  • Total Payout: $1,200
  • Implied Win Chance: ~83%

• Felipe Bunes (+340)
  • Profit: $3,400
  • Total Payout: $4,400
  • Implied Win Chance: ~23%

Want the absolute maximum return? Bet Bunes at +390 on DraftKings and you’d pocket $3,900 in profit for a $1,000 stake (total return $4,900). Chasing the favorite? BetUS or BetOnline.ag at –460 turns that same $1,000 into $1,217 total return if Estevam prevails.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For the Favorite (Estevam): BetUS or BetOnline.ag — both at –460 offer the shallowest favorite line and highest payout on a winning wager.
• For the Underdog (Bunes): DraftKings — the +390 line stands out above the rest for maximum upside on a shocker.

Whether you’re booking the chalk every time or betting big on an upset, understanding the line movement and shopping for the best odds is crucial. With Estevam’s lines tightening on heavy action and Bunes’ price still attractive, you can decide if you want to back the unbeaten prospect or roll the dice on a veteran submission ace. Good luck and bet responsibly!