Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos Fight Analysis

Event Details

Get ready for an electrifying Women’s Strawweight showdown on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva, as two of the division’s brightest stars collide at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. This highly anticipated bout is slated to begin on Saturday, September 13, 2025, with the preliminary card kicking off at 7:00 PM CT (local time). Whether you’re tuning in on ESPN+ or joining friends live at the arena, you won’t want to miss this clash of grappling prowess and striking precision.

Fighter Profiles at a Glance

• Tatiana Suarez (Red Corner)
  • Ranking: #2 Women’s Strawweight Division, #11 on the P4P list
  • Record: 11–1–0 (2 KOs, 6 submissions)
  • Age: 34 | Height: 65 in | Reach: 66 in
  • Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder with elite wrestling base
  • UFC Debut: July 9, 2016

• Amanda Lemos (Blue Corner)
  • Ranking: #4 Women’s Strawweight Division, #14 on the P4P list
  • Record: 15–4–1 (8 KOs, 3 submissions)
  • Age: 38 | Height: 64 in | Reach: 65 in
  • Fighting Style: Boxing specialist with powerful leg kicks
  • UFC Debut: July 16, 2017

Betting Odds & Matchup Narrative

Heading into fight night, Tatiana Suarez enters as the overwhelming favorite, with odds hovering around -330 to -340 across major sportsbooks such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetOnline.ag. Her exceptional wrestling credentials—boasting an 80% takedown defense rate and 47% takedown accuracy—make her a formidable obstacle for any opponent looking to dictate where the fight takes place.

Conversely, Amanda Lemos arrives as the underdog, priced at +230 to +270, yet she represents a dangerous threat on the feet. With a staggering 54% significant strike accuracy and the ability to finish fights early (8 first-round finishes), Lemos has one of the most polished boxing arsenals in the division. Her most recent unanimous decision victory over Iasmin Lucindo further underscores her resilience and cardiovascular endurance over three hard-fought rounds.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup is more than just another preliminary bout—it has serious title implications. A win for the winner propels them within striking distance of a championship opportunity in the loaded Women’s Strawweight division. For Suarez, it’s a chance to avenge her only career loss (a unanimous decision to Zhang Weili in February 2025) and reaffirm her status as the division’s top contender. For Lemos, a victory over a top-two opponent would mark the biggest win of her career and potentially vault her into the title conversation.

Whether you’re a savvy bettor eyeing value on the underdog or an MMA purist expecting Suarez’s grappling to reign supreme, this fight promises elite-level action, momentum swings, and a direct line to the title picture. Don’t miss a second of the action as Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Lemos put it all on the line in San Antonio!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Tatiana Suarez: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 34
Country: United States | Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder with elite wrestling base
Record: 11–1–0 (2 KOs, 6 Submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• 02/08/2025 Loss vs Weili Zhang (Decision – Unanimous)
• 08/05/2023 Win vs Jessica Andrade (Submission – R2, 1:31)
• 02/25/2023 Win vs Montana De La Rosa (Submission – R2, 2:51)
• 06/08/2019 Loss vs Nina Nunes (Decision – Unanimous)
• 09/08/2018 Win vs Carla Esparza (KO/TKO – R3, 4:34)

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (80%): Suarez’s ability to keep the fight standing—or scramble back to her feet—neutralizes opponents’ wrestling plans.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (62%): She lands nearly two-thirds of her strikes, putting constant pressure on foes.
• Submission Arsenal: With 6 submission wins, her transitions from top control to chokes and armbars make her dangerous once the fight hits the mat.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time of 11:18 highlights her durability and conditioning in championship rounds.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Accuracy (47%): Compared to peers, Suarez sometimes struggles to secure her own offensive takedowns, relying instead on scrambles.
• Striking Defense (47%): Allowing over half of incoming significant strikes means she can be caught in exchange-heavy matchups against sharp strikers.
• KO Power: Just 2 career knockouts suggests she must out-grapple rather than out-punch her opponents for finishes.

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Amanda Lemos: Profile & Recent Form

Age: 38
Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Boxing specialist with heavy hands and leg kicks
Record: 15–4–1 (8 KOs, 3 Submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• 03/08/2025 Win vs Iasmin Lucindo (Decision – Unanimous)
• 07/20/2024 Loss vs Virna Jandiroba (Submission – R2, 4:48)
• 02/17/2024 Win vs Mackenzie Dern (Decision – Unanimous)
• 08/19/2023 Loss vs Weili Zhang (Decision – Unanimous)
• 11/05/2022 Win vs Marina Rodriguez (KO/TKO – R3, 0:54)

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (54%): Lemos lands over half of her power shots, often breaking opponents’ rhythm.
• Takedown Accuracy (63%): Unusual for a striker, she’s capable of dragging fights to the mat when needed.
• Finishing Instincts: Eight first-round finishes reveal her ability to end fights early with precision and power.
• Versatility on Feet: Her boxing foundation, combined with thudding leg kicks, makes for a diverse striking attack.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (59%): Suarez’s wrestling pedigree poses a clear path to exploit as Lemos defends fewer than two-thirds of takedown attempts.
• Striking Defense (45%): Ranking near the bottom of the division in defense, she’s susceptible to combination punching and counters.
• Durability Beyond Early Rounds: With an average fight time of 10:07, Lemos has shown fatigue in later frames, especially against high-pace wrestlers.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This matchup pits Suarez’s grappling mastery against Lemos’s heavy-hitting boxing. If Suarez can impose her wrestling, she’ll control where the fight goes and capitalize on her submission expertise. Conversely, if Lemos maintains distance and unleashes her power combinations early, she could force Suarez into uncomfortable striking exchanges. Each fighter’s statistical profile reveals a clear game plan: Suarez must takedown and grind, while Lemos must strike smart, keep the fight upright, and avoid extended grappling sequences. With title contention on the line, expect both athletes to push these strengths while attempting to mask their vulnerabilities in San Antonio’s Frost Bank Center.

Odds and Betting History

Current Betting Odds

Heading into fight night, Tatiana Suarez is the clear favorite, while Amanda Lemos carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of their current head-to-head lines across major sportsbooks:

• Tatiana Suarez

• DraftKings: –340
• BetOnline.ag: –330
• FanDuel: –310 (best price for Suarez backers)

• Amanda Lemos

• DraftKings: +270
• BetOnline.ag: +270 (best price for Lemos backers)
• FanDuel: +230

The gap between Suarez’s shortest (–310) and Lemos’s longest (+270) numbers represents a 580-cent difference, underlining Suarez’s status as the -330 favorite and Lemos as the +270 underdog. For bettors backing the favorite, FanDuel currently offers the best line on Suarez. Underdog hunters will find maximum value at DraftKings or BetOnline.ag, both at +270.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at how these odds have shifted over the past week reveals growing confidence in Suarez’s chances—and a softening outlook on Lemos:

• Tatiana Suarez

• BetOnline.ag opened at –280 (Aug. 28), moved to –320 within hours
• DraftKings opened at –285, then slid to –325 (Aug. 29) and –340 (Sep. 1)
• FanDuel debuted at –310 on Sep. 1 and has held steady

• Amanda Lemos

• DraftKings opened at +230, then drifted to +260 and now +270
• BetOnline.ag opened and remains at +270
• FanDuel opened directly at +230 with little movement

The trend shows Suarez gaining juice as more money backs the favorite, while Lemos’s line drifting from +230 to +270 suggests limited sharp support for the underdog and increasing bookmaker liability.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:

• Bet on Tatiana Suarez at –310 (FanDuel)
– Potential profit: ≈ $323
– Total return: ≈ $1,323
– Implied win probability: ~75.6%

• Bet on Amanda Lemos at +270 (DraftKings / BetOnline.ag)
– Potential profit: $2,700
– Total return: $3,700
– Implied win probability: ~27.0%

While Suarez’s heavy wrestling pedigree and dominant stats have pushed her into three-to-one favorite territory, those seeking maximum upside may gravitate toward Lemos’s +270 line. Regardless of your lean, these odds and their recent movement highlight sharply contrasting market sentiment—an underdog worth a look if you believe Lemos can keep the fight standing and land her power hands.