Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva: UFC Odds & Preview

Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, September 13, 2025, fight fans will turn their attention to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, as the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva kicks off. Among the matchups slated to open the show is a pivotal lightweight clash between Claudio Puelles and Joaquim Silva, a pairing that promises fireworks on the canvas and brilliant grappling exchanges. The bout is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM CT, with both athletes looking to make a statement on the undercard of what is poised to be one of the more competitive UFC Fight Night events this year.

Heading into this matchup, Joaquim Silva is installed as the favorite, with odds drifting between –125 (FanDuel) and –142 (DraftKings). The Brazilian veteran (13-6-0) boasts seven knockout victories and three submissions, and he’ll lean on his balanced striking and 50% takedown accuracy to keep Puelles honest. Silva’s only losses in his last five bouts came against high‐caliber opponents—Drakkar Klose and Arman Tsarukyan—illustrating that he thrives at the very top of the lightweight division.

On the other side of the Octagon stands Claudio Puelles, the Peruvian submission specialist, who enters as the underdog at around +120 (DraftKings and BetOnline.ag) and –102 (FanDuel). At just 27 years old, Puelles has amassed a 13-4-0 record with seven wins by submission, showcasing a dangerous ground game underscored by slick Muay Thai fundamentals. While his striking defense (46%) and takedown accuracy (37%) may lag behind Silva’s, Puelles’ appetite for first‐round finishes and relentless guard work can turn any prolonged exchange into a choke‐takedown opportunity.

This clash isn’t merely a battle of styles—it’s a crossroads for both careers. Silva, now 35, is hunting a rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Drakkar Klose in May 2024, and a victory here would cement his status as a perennial top‐15 contender. Conversely, Puelles is on a two‐fight skid, most recently dropping a split decision to Fares Ziam in February 2024. A win for the 2016 UFC debutant from Peru would snap that slide and push him back into the conversation as one of the division’s most dangerous submission threats.

With Silva’s well‐rounded attack and Puelles’ lethal jiu-jitsu, expect a tantalizing chess match that could see momentum swing wildly from start to finish. Whether you side with the favorite’s power and experience or ride with the underdog’s choke‐heavy arsenal, this bout promises drama, pivotal shifts, and, potentially, a highlight‐reel finish. As the Frost Bank Center lights illuminate the Octagon, all eyes will be on these two lightweights to set the tone for the evening.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

This lightweight clash pits Claudio Puelles’ dynamic submission arsenal against Joaquim Silva’s well-rounded power striking and grappling. On paper, the bout is a stylistic crossroads: Puelles’ Muay Thai background and slick jiu-jitsu versus Silva’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu roots complemented by seven knockout victories. Let’s break down each athlete’s background, recent form, and where their strengths and weaknesses lie.

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Claudio Puelles: Profile & Analysis

Age: 27
Country: Peru
Fighting Style: Muay Thai with high-level submission transitions
UFC Record: 13-4-0 (7 submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Feb. 24, 2024 – Loss (Split Decision) vs. Fares Ziam
• Nov. 12, 2022 – Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Dan Hooker
• Apr. 23, 2022 – Win (Submission) vs. Clay Guida
• Dec. 4, 2021 – Win (Submission) vs. Kurisu Kuretsutsuemaka
• Jun. 5, 2021 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Jordan Leavitt

Puelles rattled off three straight wins in 2021–2022 showcasing his submission prowess, but has dropped back-to-back bouts against seasoned strikers. His last outing ended in a razor-thin split decision loss, highlighting both his durability and vulnerability in striking exchanges.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (50%): Puelles lands half of his attempted strikes, ranking him among the most precise lightweights.
• Submission Expertise: Seven career submissions, plus three first-round finishes, underline his dangerous guard and transition game.
• Reach Advantage (72" arms, 40" legs): He uses his length to set up kicks and keep opponents off balance.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (46%): He absorbs more significant strikes than most, which can leave him exposed to Silva’s power.
• Takedown Metrics: With just 37% takedown accuracy and a 60% takedown defense, Puelles may struggle if Silva opts for a wrestling-heavy approach.
• Cardio & Pace: His Avg Fight Time (11:14) suggests he can tire in later rounds, especially if pressured continuously.

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Joaquim Silva: Profile & Analysis

Age: 35
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with heavy striking base
UFC Record: 13-6-0 (7 KOs, 3 submissions)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• May 4, 2024 – Loss (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Drakkar Klose
• Dec. 2, 2023 – Win (Decision – Unanimous) vs. Clay Guida
• Jun. 17, 2023 – Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Arman Tsarukyan
• Oct. 1, 2022 – Win (KO/TKO) vs. Jesse Ronson
• Jun. 19, 2021 – Loss (KO/TKO) vs. Ricky Glenn

Silva alternates wins and losses but remains dangerous in every phase. He rebounded from a knockout defeat in 2023 by out-wrestling veteran Clay Guida, demonstrating his adaptability.

Strengths

• Balanced Striking (43% accuracy) & Defense (53%): Silva can both land and evade significant strikes effectively.
• Takedown Prowess: 50% takedown accuracy and 69% takedown defense make him difficult to control on the mat.
• Finishing Instinct: Eight first-round finishes signal his ability to end fights early, especially with ground-and-pound.

Weaknesses

• Aging Curve: At 35, Silva may experience a slight decline in reflexes and cardio, impacting his later-round output.
• Submission Frequency: Only three submissions in 13 wins suggest he may not pursue chokes as aggressively as Puelles.
• Average Fight Time (10:33): Indicates he often pushes for early finishes but could be tested in a full-length bout.

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This contest will test Puelles’ precision and submission creativity against Silva’s power, wrestling, and veteran savvy. Understanding each fighter’s metrics—accuracy, defense, takedowns, and finishing rates—frames a compelling blueprint for how this fight could unfold.

Odds Overview & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

As of September 1, 2025, the sportsbooks have installed Joaquim Silva as the favorite and Claudio Puelles as the underdog—though margins vary by site:

• Joaquim Silva

  • FanDuel: –125
  • BetOnline.ag: –140
  • DraftKings: –142

• Claudio Puelles

  • FanDuel: –102
  • BetOnline.ag: +120
  • DraftKings: +120

Silva’s odds range from –125 to –142, reflecting a roughly 56–59% implied probability of victory on most books. Puelles, at +120, carries about a 45% chance of an upset. The only outlier is FanDuel, where Puelles is a slight favorite at –102, suggesting a 51% edge in his favor on that specific line.

Line Movement & Key Swings

A week of line movement tells the story of shifting public perception and sharper money:

• Joaquim Silva
  • Aug. 17: –112 (BetOnline & DraftKings)
  • Aug. 26: –122 (BetOnline & DraftKings)
  • Sep. 1: –140 (BetOnline) / –142 (DraftKings)

Silva has lengthened from –112 to –142, indicating heavier action on the favorite as bettors back his experience.

• Claudio Puelles
  • Aug. 17: –108 (BetOnline & DraftKings)
  • Aug. 26: +102 (BetOnline & DraftKings)
  • Sep. 1: +120 (BetOnline & DraftKings)

Puelles has slid from a narrow favorite (–108) to a sizable underdog (+120), revealing skepticism about his recent form and desire for value on the Brazilian’s edge.

The most dramatic swing: Puelles shifted 228 cents in American odds in just two weeks, transforming from slight chalk to underdog. Meanwhile, Silva’s line drift of 30–40 cents underscores growing confidence in his well-rounded game.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• For Joaquim Silva: FanDuel (–125) offers the best price among major U.S. books.
• For Claudio Puelles: Both BetOnline.ag and DraftKings sit at +120, making them the ideal choice for underdog backers.

FanDuel lays the shortest favorite line, so if you’re backing Silva, extricate the best ROI at –125 rather than –140/–142 elsewhere. Conversely, +120 at BetOnline.ag or DraftKings gives Puelles supporters the juiciest payout.

Payout & Implied Probabilities

• Betting $1,000 on Joaquim Silva at –125 (FanDuel)

  • Payout: $1,800 total ($800 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Chance: ~56%

• Betting $1,000 on Claudio Puelles at +120 (DraftKings or BetOnline.ag)

  • Payout: $2,200 total ($1,200 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Win Chance: ~45%

Whether you lean toward Silva’s veteran savvy or Puelles’ submission upside, understanding line history and where to shop for the best number is crucial. Early bettors on Silva have seen diminishing returns as odds tighten, while value seekers who snagged Puelles at +102 have already locked in an extra 18 cents of upside. With both fighters’ lines still shifting, keep a close eye on market moves leading into fight night.