Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes: Betting Odds & Predictions

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Fight Analysis

Event: UFC Fight Night – Ulberg vs Reyes
Date & Time: September 28, 2025, 02:00 UTC
Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)
Card Position: Main Card (Non–Title Bout)

The Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes matchup headlines a compelling Light Heavyweight clash on Saturday night at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. This bout kicks off the Main Card at approximately 02:00 UTC on September 28, 2025, translating to an 10:00 AM local start in Western Australia. As one of the most anticipated fights of the evening, Ulberg vs Reyes has piqued the interest of fight fans and savvy bettors alike, thanks to two explosive strikers with contrasting career arcs.

The Favorite: Carlos Ulberg

• Record: 13–1–0
• Ranking: #3 in the Light Heavyweight Division
• Betting Odds: –190 to –225 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS)
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer
• Key Stats:
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 55%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 60%
  • Takedown Defense: 86%

New Zealand’s Carlos Ulberg enters this matchup as the clear betting favorite, with odds hovering around –200 across major sportsbooks. A dynamic kickboxer with seven career knockouts and six first-round finishes, Ulberg has proven his versatility by earning two consecutive unanimous decision victories over high-caliber veterans Jan Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir. Standing 76 inches tall with an equal reach, Ulberg combines crisp leg kicks and punishing overhands to break opponents down before closing the show.

The Underdog: Dominick Reyes

• Record: 15–4–0
• Ranking: #7 in the Light Heavyweight Division
• Betting Odds: +155 to +190 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, BetRivers, BetUS)
• Fighting Style: Kickboxer
• Key Stats:
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 54%
  • Takedown Accuracy: 29%
  • Takedown Defense: 83%

Former title challenger Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes is listed as the underdog, with odds between +155 and +190. At 35 years old, Reyes remains one of the most dangerous finishers in the division, boasting ten knockouts and a 73% finish rate in his UFC victories. Since rebounding from back-to-back knockout losses in 2021–22, he’s rattled off three straight KO/TKO wins—most recently putting away Nikita Krylov in the first round. Reyes’ blend of reach, explosive counters, and veteran savvy make him a live dog to spoil the homecoming party for Ulberg.

Fight Outlook

This bout presents a classic striker’s duel: Ulberg seeks to impose volume and varied attack patterns, while Reyes aims to land one decisive shot. Ulberg’s superior takedown metrics give him an edge in neutralizing Reyes’ power, but Dominick’s fight-ending explosiveness means a single lapse could turn the tide in an instant. Expect both men to feel each other out on the feet before ramping up the offense, with the potential for a highlight-reel finish in any round.

As you stack your parlay cards or hedge your prop bets, consider the timing (Round 1 KO prop) and method markets, but keep in mind Ulberg’s recent durability and Reyes’ finisher’s instincts. This matchup is primed to deliver fireworks and could very well steal the show on a stacked Perth fight night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Carlos Ulberg: “The Berserker”

Age: 34
Country: New Zealand
Fighting Style: Kickboxer (with high-level wrestling ability)
UFC Record: 13–1–0 (7 KOs, 2 Subs)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 22, 2025: Def. Jan Blachowicz – Unanimous Decision
• Nov. 23, 2024: Def. Volkan Oezdemir – Unanimous Decision
• May 11, 2024: Def. Alonzo Menifield – KO/TKO (R1, 0:12)
• Sept. 9, 2023: Def. Da Woon Jung – Submission (R3, 4:49)
• May 13, 2023: Def. Ihor Potieria – KO/TKO (R1, 2:09)

Strengths:

• Striking Efficiency: 55% significant strike accuracy, reflecting crisp timing and placement.
• Finishing Versatility: 9 of 13 wins by stoppage, mixing knockouts and submissions.
• Wrestling Base: 60% takedown accuracy and 86% takedown defense allow him to dictate fight location.
• Durability & Cardio: Average fight time of 7:45 shows he can maintain output late and absorb strikes.

Weaknesses:

• Game-planning Against Elite Strikers: Two decision wins suggest challenges closing the show when early finishes aren’t available.
• Predictability Under Pressure: Opponents who neutralize his heavy leg kicks and cutting angles can force him into a slugfest.
• Knockout Susceptibility: Career loss (13–1) hints at a momentary lapse; his chin will be tested by heavy counter-punchers.

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Dominick Reyes: “The Devastator”

Age: 35
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Kickboxer (with emerging wrestling defense)
UFC Record: 15–4–0 (10 KOs, 2 Subs)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Apr. 12, 2025: Def. Nikita Krylov – KO/TKO (R1, 2:24)
• Dec. 7, 2024: Def. Anthony Smith – KO/TKO (R2, 4:46)
• Jun. 8, 2024: Def. Dustin Jacoby – KO/TKO (R1, 2:00)
• Nov. 12, 2022: Loss vs Ryan Spann – KO/TKO (R1, 1:20)
• May 1, 2021: Loss vs Jiri Prochazka – KO/TKO (R2, 4:29)

Strengths:

• One-Punch Power: 10 knockouts, with 3 straight first-or second-round stoppages.
• Striking Defense: 54% accuracy and 50% defense—he lands heavier shots and evades half incoming strikes.
• Experience & Ring IQ: Former title challenger who pushes pace and adjusts mid-fight.
• Takedown Defense: 83% success shutting down wrestling attempts, forcing fights to stay standing.

Weaknesses:

• Wrestling Offense: Only 29% takedown accuracy limits his ability to mix levels and break rhythm.
• Chin Vulnerability: Four career losses all via KO/TKO suggest his defense can be breached by heavy hitters.
• Durability in Deep Waters: Average fight duration of 7:34 indicates potential fatigue in championship distance scenarios.

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How Styles Clash

This is a classic striker’s duel with a grappling undercurrent. Ulberg can use his superior wrestling (60% takedown rate) and volume striking to thwart Reyes’ power assaults. Meanwhile, Reyes will look to time Ulberg’s forward pressure with a single devastating counter. Ulberg’s crisp combinations and high-octane kicks contrast with Reyes’ explosive, knockout-seeking jab and hook. Both men share a 76-inch height and 77-inch reach, setting the stage for a measured stand-up chess match where precision, pace, and power coalesce. Bettors should weigh Ulberg’s well-rounded game against Reyes’ fight-ending explosiveness when handicapping this pivotal Light Heavyweight clash.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Carlos Ulberg (Favorite):
  • Caesars: –190
  • BetMGM: –200
  • BetRivers: –205
  • BetOnline.ag: –225
  • BetUS: –225
• Dominick Reyes (Underdog):
  • Caesars: +155
  • BetMGM: +165
  • BetRivers: +163
  • BetUS: +186
  • BetOnline.ag: +190

Ulberg is firmly installed as the favorite, with lines ranging from –190 to –225. Reyes sits on the plus side of the board, priced between +155 and +190. The largest gap currently is 415 cents (–225 vs. +190), underlining that sportsbooks view Ulberg as the more likely winner.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• To back Ulberg, Caesars at –190 offers the most attractive price among major books.
• To back Reyes, BetOnline.ag at +190 is the standout line, giving the biggest upside for the underdog.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at each fighter’s odds history reveals a clear trend:

• Ulberg’s Line Drift:

  • Caesars moved from –175 (Sep. 12) to –190 (Sep. 15).
  • BetOnline.ag opened at –165 on Sep. 12 and slid as low as –225 by Sep. 15.
  • BetRivers and BetUS followed similar shifts, pushing Ulberg deeper into favorite territory.

• Reyes’ Line Drift:

  • Caesars shifted from +145 to +155 over three days.
  • BetOnline.ag climbed from +145 to +190.
  • BetRivers and BetUS also moved Reyes from roughly +138 up to +163 and +186, respectively.

This consistent swing toward Ulberg suggests heavy wagering on the favorite. The most pronounced move is on BetOnline.ag, where both fighters saw their odds pushed aggressively: Ulberg from –165 to –225 and Reyes from +145 to +190.

$1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Chances

• Betting $1,000 on Ulberg at –190 (Caesars):
  You’d net approximately $525 in winnings, plus your $1,000 stake returned for a total of about $1,525.
• Betting $1,000 on Reyes at +190 (BetOnline.ag):
  You’d collect around $1,900 in profit, bringing your total return to $2,900.

Based on these odds, sportsbooks are assigning roughly a 65–68% chance for Ulberg and around a 33–36% chance for Reyes. Those percentages frame Ulberg as the safer pick, while Reyes carries the excitement—and the bigger payday—for risk-tolerant bettors.

How to Play It

• If you believe Ulberg’s recent wrestling and striking volume will overwhelm Reyes, lock in –190 at Caesars for the cleanest odds on the favorite.
• If you anticipate Reyes landing that fight-ending counter, target +190 at BetOnline.ag to maximize your return as the underdog.

Whichever side you choose, be mindful of how the line has shifted: public money is staking Ulberg, and Reyes’ number has drifted upward, creating extra value on the +190 line for those backing the veteran challenger.