Maheshate vs Gauge Young Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Maheshate vs Gauge Young Fight Breakdown

Event Overview

The Maheshate vs Gauge Young lightweight clash is set to light up the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, Shanghai, China, on Saturday, August 23, 2025. This bout will air at 7:00 AM UTC (3:00 PM local CST) as part of the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang. As the action unfolds at one of Asia’s premier arenas, fight fans around the globe will be tuning in to witness two contrasting styles collide under the bright lights of the Octagon.

Fighters at a Glance

• Gauge Young (United States) – UFC record: 9-3-0
  • Known for his explosive power, Young has finished 6 opponents by knockout and secured 5 first-round stoppages in his pro career. At just 24 years old, he made a strong impression despite dropping a unanimous decision in his debut on April 26, 2025.
• Hayisaer Maheshate (China) – UFC record: 10-4-0
  • A former Xinjiang standout, Maheshate brings a boxing-centric approach and boasts 4 knockout victories in 14 total fights. The 25-year-old has defended his homeland’s honor since debuting in June 2022 and looks to rebound after a split-decision defeat in November 2024.

Betting Odds & Matchup Dynamics

According to BetOnline.ag, Gauge Young enters this contest as a slight favorite at –120 (American odds), while Maheshate sits just behind as the underdog at +100. The narrow spread reflects the compelling intrigue of this matchup:

• Young’s 49% significant strike accuracy and penchant for early finishes suggest a high‐octane start.
• Maheshate, with 54% significant strike defense, will lean on his crisp boxing and counter‐punching ability to weather the storm.

Both athletes have yet to showcase takedown prowess in the UFC, with each holding 0% takedown accuracy, but Maheshate’s 45% takedown defense contrasts with Young’s 64% takedown defense, hinting at potential grappling exchanges if either fighter seeks to change the fight’s rhythm.

Stakes & Storylines

• Young’s Redemption: After a unanimous‐decision setback in his UFC debut, Young is eager to prove that he belongs among the lightweight elite and extend his highlight‐reel résumé.
• Maheshate’s Homecoming: Competing on his adopted home turf, Maheshate aims to ignite the local crowd and rebound from his last loss, leveraging every punch and angle to secure a pivotal win.

This showdown promises a compelling blend of youth, power, and hometown pride. Whether you side with the American knockout artist or cheer on China’s rising pugilist, Maheshate vs Gauge Young delivers high stakes and stylistic contrast—an unmissable opener to an already spectacular Fight Night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Maheshate vs Gauge Young can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Gauge Young: The American Knockout Artist

Age: 24
Country: United States
Fighting Style: MMA (Striker/Kickboxer)

Recent Form

• Apr. 26, 2025 – Loss vs. Evan Elder (Decision – Unanimous) in UFC debut
• Pro Record: 9-3-0 with 6 knockouts and 1 submission
• First-Round Finishes: 5 of his 9 wins

Although Young’s UFC tenure is in its infancy, his professional résumé tells the story of a ferocious finisher. He enters with a stout 9-3 record, having dispatched two-thirds of his victims by strikes, and five of those ending in the opening round.

Strengths

• Power & Finishing Ability: With 67% of his victories by KO, Young possesses one-punch knockout power capable of ending fights instantly.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (49%): He lands nearly half of his significant strikes, underscoring crisp timing and clean technique.
• Takedown Defense (64%): Strong sprawl and scramble ability; he forces opponents to keep the fight standing where his power is most dangerous.
• Cardio for Five Rounds: An average fight time of 15:00 suggests he can maintain pace in deeper waters when the early barrage doesn’t land.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (45%): Young absorbs more than half of his opponent’s significant strikes, leaving him open to counters if he overcommits.
• No Takedown Offense (0% Accuracy): He has yet to register a takedown in the UFC, limiting his ability to mix up levels or exploit wrestling advantages.
• UFC Inexperience: One high-profile loss in his Octagon debut could affect his composure against a seasoned local crowd.

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Hayisaer Maheshate: China’s Boxing Specialist

Age: 25
Country: China
Fighting Style: Boxing

Recent Form

• Nov. 23, 2024 – Loss vs. Nikolas Motta (Decision – Unanimous)
• Apr. 27, 2024 – Win vs. Gabriel Benitez (Decision – Split)
• May 20, 2023 – Loss vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (KO/TKO, R2)
• Dec. 17, 2022 – Loss vs. Rafa Garcia (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jun. 11, 2022 – Win vs. Steve Garcia (KO/TKO, R1)

Maheshate’s UFC journey reflects a grappling-light, stand-and-bang narrative. While he’s collected key victories, three of his four UFC defeats have come via decision or knockout, indicating both resilience and occasional lapses.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Defense (54%): He blocks or evades over half of incoming significant strikes, giving him a stable platform to land counters.
• Boxing Technique: Trained in traditional boxing, Maheshate showcases head-movement, footwork, and straight-punch accuracy.
• Aggressive Pace: With an average fight time of 11:29, he often pushes the action early, looking to overwhelm opponents with volume.

Weaknesses

• Offensive Output (29% Accuracy): Despite strong defense, he lands fewer than 3 of every 10 significant strikes he throws, signaling accuracy and volume issues.
• Takedown Defense (45%): Below-average wrestling defense leaves him vulnerable to clinch or ground-control specialists.
• Finite Finishing: Only 5 of his 14 fights ended by stoppage (4 KOs, 1 submission), suggesting a lack of consistent fight-ending tools when the pure boxing exchange stalls.

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Matchup Implications:
Young’s power and precision will test Maheshate’s defensive guard, while the Chinese southpaw’s counter-boxing and movement could frustrate the American slugger. This stylistic clash—power versus defense—will determine whether Young scores an early knockout or Maheshate weathers the storm and seizes momentum in the later rounds.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update from BetOnline.ag, the moneyline for Maheshate vs Gauge Young shows a tight contest:

• Gauge Young is favored at –120
• Hayisaer Maheshate sits just behind as the underdog at +100

This slim gap reflects how closely matched these two lightweights are, with Young’s power and finishing upside pitted against Maheshate’s defensive savvy and boxing pedigree. With only two ticks separating them, bettors on either side are committing to a near 50/50 outcome, and BetOnline.ag currently offers the sharpest lines on both fighters.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the odds movement over the past 48 hours reveals a modest but telling shift:

• Gauge Young opened at –130 on August 15, then moved to –120 by August 16
• Maheshate began at +110 on August 15, tightening to +100 by August 16

Neither fighter has seen a dramatic swing—no double-digit leaps overnight—indicating balanced money on both sides. The narrowing of both lines suggests that as fight week approaches, money has trickled in on Young (bringing his price up) and also on Maheshate (bringing his payout down). This equilibrium usually signals that sharp bettors are confident each man has a legitimate path to victory.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Bold Favorite: Gauge Young (–120)
• Clear Underdog: Hayisaer Maheshate (+100)

Despite Young carrying the favorite’s tag, the underdog’s line at even money means a bet on Maheshate returns the same profit as his risk. When underdog odds drop from +110 to +100, it often reflects bettors recognizing real value in that fighter’s chances—Maheshate’s durable chin and counter-striking seem to have impressed early wagering.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you staked $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what your returns would look like:

• Gauge Young (–120)
  • Payout: $1,833.33 (that’s $833.33 profit plus your original $1,000)
  • Implied Chance: ~55%

• Hayisaer Maheshate (+100)
  • Payout: $2,000 (a clean $1,000 profit plus your $1,000 back)
  • Implied Chance: ~50%

Nobody needs complex math—just know that backing the underdog here effectively doubles your money, while the favorite pays out just under even money for a winning ticket.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For this fight, BetOnline.ag is the go-to option. They’re currently offering the most competitive lines on both Young and Maheshate, with minimal juice and an easy interface for international bettors tuning in from China, the United States, or beyond.

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With nearly identical implied probabilities and only a small shift in the lines over the past two days, this betting market remains razor-thin. Whether you trust Young’s knockout artistry or Maheshate’s technical boxing, your choice will come down to who you believe executes their game plan under the bright lights of Shanghai. Good luck!