UFC Paris: Saint Denis vs Ruffy Odds & Analysis

Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, September 6, 2025, fight fans will descend upon the Accor Arena in Paris, France for one of the most intriguing lightweight matchups on the UFC Fight Night card: Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy. Scheduled to kick off at 7:00 PM local time as part of the Main Card (Event: Imavov vs Borralho), this bout pits rising grappling specialist Benoit Saint Denis (#13 in the UFC Lightweight rankings) against dynamic Brazilian striker Mauricio Ruffy (#15). With Ruffy opening as the favorite at approximately –210 and Saint Denis lining up as the underdog at +180, oddsmakers are forecasting a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown.

For the French contingent in attendance, Saint Denis represents home-turf talent: a 29-year-old MMA all-rounder with a 14-3 record, boasting 10 submission victories and an average fight time of just 7 minutes and 33 seconds. Since arriving in the Octagon in late 2021, he has demonstrated slick scrambling, a 40% takedown accuracy rate, and seven first-round finishes. However, two recent setbacks—losses to Renato Moicano (TKO, doctor’s stoppage) and Dustin Poirier (KO/TKO)—have put a spotlight on Saint Denis’s need to shore up his striking defense (currently at 42%).

On the opposite side of the Octagon stands Mauricio Ruffy, Brazil’s knockout artist. At age 28, Ruffy sports an impressive 12-1 record, including a staggering 11 knockouts and eight first-round stoppages. Since debuting in May 2024, Ruffy has dispatched top-flight opponents such as Bobby Green (KO, Round 1), Jamie Mullarkey (KO/TKO, Round 1), and James Llontop (unanimous decision), showcasing his 59% significant strike accuracy and perfect 100% takedown defense. Those attributes have propelled him to become the betting favorite at most sportsbooks, with odds currently clustered around –210 to –220 depending on the book.

What’s at stake?

• Mauricio Ruffy: A win solidifies his claim as one of the division’s most dangerous knockout artists and could jump him closer to a top-10 opponent on a potential pay-per-view stage.
• Benoit Saint Denis: A victory over a Brazilian finisher on foreign soil would not only avenge earlier career defeats but also catapult him into title contention discussions within the increasingly stacked lightweight class.

With Ruffy’s power striking up against Saint Denis’s high-level grappling and submission pedigree, expect the opening bell to set an electric tone. Will Ruffy dictate distance and land the big shot early, or can Saint Denis leverage his ground game to neutralize Brazil’s knockout machine? Dive in to see which fighter’s strengths prevail in this stylistic clash at UFC Fight Night Paris.

Stay tuned as we break down each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, keys to victory, and betting angles in the sections to follow!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy: Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Fighter Profiles

Benoit Saint Denis

• Age: 29
• Country: France
• Fighting Style: MMA All‐rounder (grappling-heavy)
• UFC Debut: Oct. 30, 2021
• Record: 14-3-0 (4 KOs, 10 submissions)
• Physicals: 71″ height, 73″ arm reach, 40″ leg reach, 156 lb walking weight

Mauricio Ruffy

• Age: 28
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker (knockout artist)
• UFC Debut: May 4, 2024
• Record: 12-1-0 (11 KOs, 0 submissions)
• Physicals: 71″ height, 75″ arm reach, 41″ leg reach, 155.5 lb walking weight

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Recent Form

Benoit Saint Denis (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Kyle Prepolec (May 10, 2025) – Submission R2 (2:35)
2. Loss vs Renato Moicano (Sep 28, 2024) – TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) R2 (5:00)
3. Loss vs Dustin Poirier (Mar 9, 2024) – KO/TKO R2 (2:32)
4. Win vs Matt Frevola (Nov 11, 2023) – KO/TKO R1 (1:31)
5. Win vs Thiago Moises (Sep 2, 2023) – KO/TKO R2 (4:44)

Mauricio Ruffy (Last 3 Fights)

1. Win vs Bobby Green (Mar 8, 2025) – KO/TKO R1 (2:07)
2. Win vs James Llontop (Nov 16, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous) R3 (5:00)
3. Win vs Jamie Mullarkey (May 4, 2024) – KO/TKO R1 (4:42)

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Strengths and Weaknesses

Benoit Saint Denis

Strengths

• Elite Grappling: 10 submission wins, 40% takedown accuracy and 71% takedown defense.
• Finishing Instincts: 7 first-round finishes, average fight time only 7:33.
• Durable Clinch Game: High stamina and ability to grind opponents over three rounds.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Just 42% significant strike defense, vulnerable to heavy hitters.
• Finishing Power: Only 4 KOs in 14 wins; lacks one-punch knockout threat.
• Recent Inconsistency: Two stoppage losses in last four bouts can affect confidence under pressure.

Mauricio Ruffy

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 11 KO victories, 8 of them in round one.
• Striking Precision: 59% significant strike accuracy and 61% defense—tops in stand-up exchanges.
• Perfect Takedown Defense: 100%, essentially denying opponents any prolonged ground phase.

Weaknesses

• Ground Offense: 0% takedown accuracy, no submission victories—one-dimensional striking.
• Average Fight Length: 9:09, suggests potential cardio concerns if pushed into the deep waters of rounds two and three.
• Question Marks vs Elite Grapplers: Unproven against high-level wrestlers capable of dirty boxing and clinch work.

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Matchup Outlook

This clash embodies the classic striker vs. grappler paradigm. Saint Denis must fire off takedowns early, not only to nullify Ruffy’s power but to lean on his superior ground craft. Conversely, Ruffy will look to stay upright, pepper the Frenchman with leg kicks and jabs, and explode with his trademark knockout shots. If Benoit cannot get the fight to the canvas, he’ll be forced to weather significant danger; should Ruffy find himself grounded, he risks being submitted in rapid fashion.

Expect a frenetic opening stanza as each man hunts his pathway: Saint Denis for the double-leg, Ruffy for the one-two that finishes fights. The outcome hinges on whether Saint Denis can impose wrestling and submission threats before Ruffy lands the decisive blow.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Mauricio Ruffy: Favored at approximately –210
• Benoit Saint Denis: Underdog at roughly +180

Ruffy’s status as the betting favorite reflects his devastating knockout power and unblemished takedown defense. Saint Denis, by contrast, offers value as the +180 underdog thanks to his elite grappling and submission résumé. The 270-point spread between –210 and +180 highlights the bookies’ confidence in Ruffy’s stand-up superiority while still acknowledging Saint Denis’s ability to pull off an upset.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Bookmakers have actively adjusted the lines over the past week in response to betting action and early weigh-in intel:

• Mauricio Ruffy
  • Opened at –300 (Aug 21 morning)
  • Shifted to –240/–250 by midday and evening (Aug 21)
  • Drifted out to –220 (Aug 23 afternoon) and briefly to –200 (Aug 24 morning)
  • Settled at –210 across most major books by early Aug 25

• Benoit Saint Denis
  • Opened at +250 (Aug 21 morning)
  • Contracted to +205/+210 by midday Aug 21
  • Bottomed out at +170 on DraftKings and BetMGM (Aug 24 midday)
  • Bounced back to +180 on several sites (Aug 25)

The most dramatic swing occurred on August 21, when Ruffy’s odds plummeted from –300 to –240 as bettors poured money on the Brazilian. Conversely, Saint Denis saw his line tighten from +250 to +170, indicating early support for the homegrown grappler. The small retracement into –210/+180 territory suggests balanced money on both sides ahead of fight week.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• Mauricio Ruffy
  • Best Line: –205 (DraftKings)
  • DraftKings offers the lowest negative price, maximizing potential profit on the favorite.

• Benoit Saint Denis
  • Best Line: +180 (BetOnline.ag, BetMGM, BetRivers)
  • Multiple books still list him at +180, providing the most upside on the underdog.

Sharp bettors looking to back Ruffy should lock in –205 at DraftKings, while underdog enthusiasts will find the juiciest +180 on BetRivers or BetOnline.ag.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probability

• A $1,000 wager on Mauricio Ruffy at –210 returns about $1,476 (including stake).
• A $1,000 bet on Benoit Saint Denis at +180 pays out approximately $2,800 (including stake).

In terms of implied chances, the current lines suggest Ruffy has roughly a 68% chance to win, while Saint Denis sits around a 36% chance. Of course, these probabilities can shift slightly depending on where you shop for odds.

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Whether you’re playing the high-percentage favorite or hunting a big payday on the French underdog, understanding the line movement and securing the best odds is crucial. Keep an eye on any late shifts leading into fight night, as last-minute injury news or public money can nudge these odds again before walk-outs. Enjoy the action, and may your bets be winners!