Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan Fight Analysis

Event Details

Get ready for an electrifying Light Heavyweight showdown as Jimmy Crute takes on Ivan Erslan at UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes. This tantalizing matchup headlines the Main Card on September 28, 2025, kicking off at 2:00 AM GMT (local time) inside the state-of-the-art RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. As one of the most anticipated bouts on a card stacked with rising talent and veteran contenders, this clash promises fireworks in front of a passionate Australian crowd.

Fighter Profiles

• Jimmy Crute (13-4-2, 9 First-Round Finishes)
  Hailing from Singleton, Australia, Crute returns to his home turf with the crowd firmly behind him. At 29 years old, the former Dec. 2, 2018 UFC debutant boasts an imposing 74-inch reach and an aggressive MMA style that blends heavy striking (52% significant strike accuracy) with elite takedown prowess (52% takedown accuracy). His recent résumé includes a stunning first-round submission of Marcin Prachnio in July 2025, demonstrating his evolving grappling toolkit.

• Ivan Erslan (14-5-0, 11 First-Round Finishes)
  Croatia’s own boxing specialist makes his sophomore appearance inside the Octagon after debuting on Sep. 28, 2024. Erslan (33) counters with heavy hands, a 44% significant strike accuracy rate, and a disciplined defensive rhythm that’s stymied many aggressive foes. Despite back-to-back decision losses to Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba, his impressive 10 knockout victories underscore his finishing capability.

Betting Odds & Prediction Landscape

The bookmakers have spoken: Jimmy Crute is the clear favorite, with odds slotted between -205 and -245 across major sportsbooks (BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers). Australia’s hometown contender enjoys robust support given his dynamic finishes and recent bounce-back win. Conversely, Ivan Erslan enters as the underdog, trading around +170 to +190, as bettors weigh his elusive boxing style against Crute’s relentless offensive pressure.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite – Jimmy Crute: The Aussie’s superior takedown talent and evolving submission game make him a multi-dimensional threat. With an average fight time of just 6:33, Crute has shown he can seize control early, forcing opponents into survival mode.
• Underdog – Ivan Erslan: Boasting one of the highest first-round finish rates in the division (11 of 14 wins), Erslan thrives on explosive starts. His boxing pedigree and 65% takedown defense provide a blueprint for an upset if he can keep the fight standing.

What to Expect

From the opening bell, anticipate a high-octane chess match: Crute will look to mix kicks, level changes, and takedowns, while Erslan aims to keep the distance, time his counters, and land heavy leather. Expect momentum swings, clinch scrambles, and a potential early finish as both men carry massive finishing percentages into this pivotal Light Heavyweight bout.

Stay tuned for our full breakdown, including a detailed round-by-round scoring projection, striking breakdown, and live betting adjustments as fight night approaches!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup Overview and Fighter Profiles

Jimmy Crute

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Australia (Singleton, NSW)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a strong wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu base, complemented by heavy striking.
• Physical Attributes: 74″ height, 74″ arm reach, 43″ leg reach.
• UFC Debut: December 2, 2018

Recent Form

1. Win vs. Marcin Prachnio (Jul. 19, 2025) – Submission (R1, 4:42)
2. Loss vs. Rodolfo Bellato (Feb. 8, 2025) – Majority Decision (3 rounds)
3. Loss vs. Alonzo Menifield (Jul. 8, 2023) – Submission (R2, 1:55)
4. Loss vs. Alonzo Menifield (Feb. 11, 2023) – Majority Decision (3 rounds)
5. Loss vs. Jamahal Hill (Dec. 4, 2021) – KO/TKO (R1, 0:48)

After stringing together four consecutive losses, Crute has righted the ship with a decisive first-round submission over Marcin Prachnio. His ambition to climb the Light Heavyweight ladder hinges on sustaining momentum and avoiding the trap of one-dimensional striking exchanges.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Takedown Offense (52% accuracy) and Defense (58%) make Crute a threat to dictate where the fight goes.
  • High Finishing Rate: 9 of 13 wins come early, often in Round 1.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (52%) allows him to land heavy, fight-ending blows.
• Weaknesses:
  • Significant Strike Defense (42%)—below-average head movement and guard openings leave him vulnerable to counters.
  • Cardio Concerns: Average fight time of 6:33 suggests he either finishes quickly or fades. In longer fights, his output dips.

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Ivan Erslan

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Croatia (Zadar)
• Fighting Style: Boxing specialist with a high-volume jab and heavy overhand rights; comfortable in a pure stand-up war.
• Physical Attributes: 74″ height, 72.5″ arm reach, 42″ leg reach.
• UFC Debut: September 28, 2024

Recent Form

1. Loss vs. Navajo Stirling (May 10, 2025) – Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
2. Loss vs. Ion Cutelaba (Sep. 28, 2024) – Split Decision (3 rounds)
3. Pre-UFC Streak: Prior to Octagon, Erslan amassed a 14–3 pro record with 10 knockouts—9 in Round 1.

Though he’s 0–2 inside the UFC, both losses were razor-thin decisions against durable veterans. His power and precision remain unchallenged at his level.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Heavy Hands & Knockout Power: 10 KOs in 14 wins, 11 total first-round finishes.
  • Defensive Striking (55%)—effective head movement and footwork frustrate opponents’ accuracy.
  • Takedown Defense (65%) cushions him against wrestlers.
• Weaknesses:
  • Takedown Offense (20%) limits his ability to mix levels and keep relentless grapplers honest.
  • Average Fight Time (15:00)—tends to fade in championship-distance bouts, potentially losing his explosive edge as the fight wears on.

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This matchup pits Crute’s wrestling-driven, finish-hungry MMA against Erslan’s polished, single-dimensional boxing. Crute will press forward, hunting takedowns and submissions, while Erslan aims to keep the fight upright, land flush counters, and exploit any striking lapses. The key question: can Crute impose his grappling before Erslan lights him up with one of his patented power shots?

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Summary

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, the betting market clearly favors Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan, but the gap has tightened in recent days. Across major sportsbooks, the current Crute odds range from -205 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS) to -245 (BetRivers), while Erslan trades between +170 (BetMGM, BetUS) and +190 (BetRivers). In plain terms:

• Favorite: Jimmy Crute (around -205 at the sharpest books)
• Underdog: Ivan Erslan (up to +190 for the best value)

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Jimmy Crute is the heavy favorite, with the market implying roughly a 67% chance of victory at -205. His blend of wrestling, submissions, and power striking has bettors on his side, especially after his recent first-round submission of Marcin Prachnio.
• Ivan Erslan sits firmly in underdog territory, but his +190 line at BetRivers suggests about a 34% chance to pull off the upset. Erslan’s knockout pedigree and slick boxing style make him dangerous if he lands early.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• BetOnline.ag and BetUS offer the most favorable odds on Crute at -205, maximizing your return on the favorite.
• BetRivers pays +190 on Ersδlan, delivering the juiciest underdog payout. If you believe Erslan’s power can overwhelm Crute, BetRivers is the place to be.

Line Movement & Swings

A look at the odds history reveals significant swings over the past few days:

• Jimmy Crute:
  • Sep. 12: -235 (BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Caesars)
  • Sep. 14–15: quickly shortened to -205, indicating heavy wager activity on Erslan or balanced action pushing the line toward pick’em territory.

• Ivan Erslan:
  • Sep. 12: +200 at several books
  • Sep. 14–15: firmed up to +170 on BetMGM/BetUS and +175 on Caesars before BetRivers jumped to +190.

This line compression—Crute’s number moving from -235 to -205 while Erslan tightened from +200 to +170/175—signals smart money or large bets backing Erslan, forcing oddsmakers to adjust.

Payouts & Probabilities

If you bet $1,000 on:

• Jimmy Crute at -205 (BetOnline.ag or BetUS), your total payout would be about $1,487 (your $1,000 stake plus roughly $487 in winnings).
• Ivan Erslan at +190 (BetRivers), you’d walk away with $2,900 (your $1,000 stake plus $1,900 in profit).

Behind these numbers lies the market’s belief that Crute is a solid favorite (around a 67% implied probability), whereas Erslan’s underdog line (about 34% chance) offers a lucrative potential return. Choose the sportsbook that maximizes your edge—favor the favorite at BetOnline.ag/BetUS, or chase the upset at BetRivers.