Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne UFC Betting Odds & Analysis

Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

The bantamweight clash between Steve Erceg and Ode’ Osbourne is set to light up the main card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez on Saturday, August 9, 2025. Scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. PT (10:00 p.m. ET) inside the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this non-title bout features two dynamic strikers looking to leave their mark on the division. Erceg (12-4-0) will bring his rapid-fire combinations and well-rounded MMA skill set against the explosive Jamaican knockout artist Osbourne (13-8-0), whose four submission wins and six TKO victories underline his finishing prowess.

Date, Time & Venue

• When: Saturday, August 9, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. PT / 10:00 p.m. ET
• Where: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Card Position: Main Card (Headlining prelims, paced by Dolidze vs Hernandez)

This event marks one of the first major UFC Fight Nights after the promotion’s return to the UFC APEX, showcasing emerging talent and established contenders on the cusp of title contention.

Betting Odds & Favorites

Oddsmakers have installed Steve Erceg as a heavy favorite, with American-style odds sitting around –600 at top books like BetOnline.ag, Caesars, BetUS, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Erceg’s recent run—highlighted by a lightning-fast TKO of Matt Schnell—coupled with his superior striking accuracy (46%) and takedown defense (64%), make him a popular pick to control the pace and secure a win.

Meanwhile, Ode’ Osbourne enters as the underdog at roughly +425, reflecting both his unorthodox striking style and mixed UFC resume. Osbourne’s first-round finishing rate (8 total) and willingness to engage in wild firefights offer intriguing value for bettors willing to back an upset. His knockout of Luis Gurule earlier this year reminds fans that one well-landed shot can change the complexion of any fight.

Why This Matters

• Career Trajectories: A victory for Erceg could vault him into Flyweight title eliminator conversations, even as he tests himself at 135 pounds.
• Underdog Upset Potential: Osbourne’s power and unpredictability make him a live dog—perfect for bettors seeking high-odds returns.
• Stylistic Clash: Erceg’s technical volume striking contrasts sharply with Osbourne’s brawling, “throw-everything” approach.

In this introduction, we’ve set the stage for what promises to be an electrifying encounter under the bright lights of Las Vegas. Whether you’re backing the chalk or chasing the long shot, stay tuned as we break down key match-up factors, fighter tendencies, and betting strategies throughout this in-depth analysis.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

Steve Erceg Profile

Age: 29
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with a submission pedigree

Record & Career Highlights
• Professional Record: 12-4-0
• UFC Debut: May 20, 2023
• Wins by Submission: 6
• Wins by Knockout: 2
• Average Fight Time: 14:55

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Loss vs. Brandon Moreno – Decision (Unanimous), March 29, 2025
2. Loss vs. Kai Kara-France – KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:04), August 17, 2024
3. Loss vs. Alexandre Pantoja – Decision (Unanimous), May 4, 2024
4. Win vs. Matt Schnell – KO/TKO (Round 2, 0:26), March 2, 2024
5. Win vs. Alessandro Costa – Decision (Unanimous), November 11, 2023

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (46%) & Defense (52%): Erceg lands nearly half of his significant strikes and defends over half of what he absorbs, enabling him to dictate range and tempo.
• Cardio & Durability: With an average fight time near 15 minutes and two five-round contests, he has proven gas tank and toughness.
• Submission Savvy: Six submission wins showcase his transitions and ground control when top position is secured.
• Takedown Defense (64%): Staunch wrestling defense frustrates opponents’ attempts to drag him into deep grappling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (26%): Low takedown accuracy limits his ability to mix levels and keep opponents guessing.
• Striking Power: Only two career knockouts at 12 wins—he leans more on volume and grappling finishers than one-punch KOs.
• Recent Slump: Three consecutive losses to top-15 flyweights point to potential issues against elite competition.

---

Ode’ Osbourne Profile

Age: 33
Country: Jamaica
Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with submission chops

Record & Career Highlights
• Professional Record: 13-8-0
• UFC Debut: July 16, 2019
• Wins by Knockout: 6
• Wins by Submission: 4
• First-Round Finishes: 8
• Average Fight Time: 6:46

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Win vs. Luis Gurule – KO/TKO (Round 2, 1:54), April 5, 2025
2. Loss vs. Luis Rodriguez – Decision (Unanimous), September 14, 2024
3. Loss vs. Jafel Filho – Submission (Round 1, 4:27), March 16, 2024
4. Loss vs. Assu Almabayev – Submission (Round 2, 3:11), August 5, 2023
5. Win vs. Charles Johnson – Decision (Split), February 25, 2023

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: Eight first-round stoppages underline his “fight-til-the-end” mentality and power in both hands and on the ground.
• Takedown Defense (65%): Like Erceg, he defends two-thirds of takedown attempts, so he’s hard to ground and pound.
• Unorthodox Offense: Creative striking angles and unpredictable timing can catch opponents off-guard.

Weaknesses

• Strike Accuracy (41%) & Defense (46%): He lands fewer than half of his significant strikes and concedes over half of what’s thrown at him—risking prolonged exchanges and volume-based fighters.
• Grappling Vulnerabilities: Three submission losses in his last eight outings hint at lapses in submission defense against seasoned grapplers.
• Inconsistency: Alternating wins and losses with mixed methods suggests volatility—he can either explode for a finish or be dismantled.

---

Head-to-Head Implications

Erceg’s measured, volume-based striking and grappling defense contrast sharply with Osbourne’s explosive early offense. Erceg will aim to drag the fight into deep waters, exploit his cardio edge, and neutralize Osbourne’s power. Conversely, Osbourne must surge early, pressurize Erceg’s rhythm, and seek a flash finish before Erceg settles into a methodical pace. This clash of styles—precision vs. unpredictability—will be pivotal in determining whether the heavy favorite can weather the storm or if the underdog lands the signature blow.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As fight night approaches, Steve Erceg is the clear favorite across all major books, while Ode’ Osbourne sits firmly in underdog territory:

• Steve Erceg (Favorite)

  • DraftKings: –575
  • FanDuel: –590
  • BetOnline.ag: –600
  • Caesars: –600
  • BetUS: –600

• Ode’ Osbourne (Underdog)

  • Caesars: +430
  • DraftKings: +425
  • BetOnline.ag: +425
  • BetUS: +425
  • FanDuel: +390

The spread between Erceg’s shortest juice (–575 at DraftKings) and Osbourne’s longest payout (+430 at Caesars) highlights the gulf in expectations. If you believe in the favorite’s superior technique and cardio, DraftKings offers the softest line at –575. Conversely, the most lucrative line on the upset sits at +430 on Caesars—a standout for underdog backers.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at opening versus current prices reveals compelling market shifts:

• Steve Erceg

  • Opened near –400 (BetOnline & FanDuel on Aug. 3–4)
  • Sharpened aggressively to –600 as of Aug. 7
  • DraftKings moved from –520 to –575 between Aug. 6–7

• Ode’ Osbourne

  • Opened as high as +330 (BetOnline) and +285 (FanDuel) on Aug. 1–4
  • Drifted out to around +425 (DraftKings, BetOnline, BetUS) and +430 (Caesars) by Aug. 7
  • FanDuel eased from +285 to +390 in the same window

This pattern suggests heavy money on Erceg, driving his line down, while Osbourne’s line has wound outward—either a lack of sizable underdog bets or bookmakers protecting liability on a potential upset. The most dramatic swing belongs to Erceg’s move from –400 to –600, underscoring strong confidence in the Aussie.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

If you roll the dice with $1,000 on either fighter at current odds, here’s what you’d take home:

• Backing Steve Erceg at –575 (DraftKings)

  • Profit: $173.91
  • Total Return: $1,173.91
  • Implied Win Probability: 85%

• Backing Ode’ Osbourne at +430 (Caesars)

  • Profit: $4,300
  • Total Return: $5,300
  • Implied Win Probability: 19%

Best Books to Shop

• Favorite (Erceg): DraftKings at –575 offers the highest net profit on the chalk, shaving a few points off the standard –600.
• Underdog (Osbourne): Caesars at +430 delivers the biggest payday if the Jamaican striker pulls off the upset.

With significant line movement favoring Erceg and the most attractive underdog line at Caesars, savvy bettors will shop around to maximize value. Whether you’re locking in the favorite’s shrinking odds or chasing a double-digit long shot, understanding these shifts can be the difference between a small win and a monster payday.