Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus Odds, Analysis & Picks

Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus Fight Analysis

As the UFC returns to China for UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang, one of the most intriguing matchups on the Preliminary Card will see Brazil’s flamboyant striker Michel Pereira take on American submission specialist Kyle Daukaus in a middleweight showdown. This bout is scheduled for August 23, 2025, at the iconic Shanghai Indoor Stadium in the Xuhui District. The Preliminary Card is set to begin at 07:00 UTC, with Pereira vs. Daukaus expected to hit the Octagon around 08:25 UTC, offering fight fans a high-octane collision of contrasting styles early in the broadcast.

Pereira, headlining the preliminary action, enters as the heavy favorite, with the latest odds from FanDuel sitting at -350. A veteran of Brazilian regional circuits and a true highlight-reel artist, “Demolidor” Pereira carries a UFC record of 31 wins and 13 losses, boasting 11 knockouts and 9 submissions to his name. Known for his unorthodox striking—often peppered with flying knees, spinning kicks, and flashy footwork—Pereira has become a fan favorite despite an up-and-down UFC tenure. At 31 years old, he brings a blend of power, creativity, and unpredictability that has yielded 14 first-round finishes and an average fight time of 11 minutes, 9 seconds. His 52% significant strike accuracy and 76% takedown defense profile him as a well-rounded threat who can dictate the pace with both his stand-up wizardry and scrambling ability.

On the opposite side, Daukaus is firmly cast as the underdog, with FanDuel offering +255 odds on the American grappler. Hailing from Philadelphia, the 32-year-old holds an 11–4 professional record with a heavy emphasis on submission prowess—9 of his 11 victories have come via taps. Daukaus made his UFC debut in June 2020 and has since showcased a patient, methodical approach focused on takedown entries and relentless ground control. Boasting a 26% takedown accuracy and an impressive 83% takedown defense, he aims to nullify Pereira’s striking by dragging the fight to the mat, where his rear-naked choke and arm-triangle game have proven exceptionally dangerous. With an average fight time of 9 minutes, 43 seconds, Daukaus is no stranger to late-round grappling exchanges, but his only path to victory often requires him to impose a wrestling-heavy narrative against more explosive foes.

This stylistic contrast—Pereira’s dynamic striking arsenal versus Daukaus’s grappling-centric game plan—sets the stage for a fascinating chess match in the middleweight division. Will Michel Pereira’s unpredictability and knockout power overwhelm the American challenger? Or can Kyle Daukaus steamroll his way to a submission victory, overcoming the odds in hostile territory? Fight fans tuning in on August 23rd won’t want to miss this early clash of striking flair versus ground control, as the winner could vault themselves toward a lucrative spot on the next UFC Fight Night card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Michel Pereira Profile

Age: 31
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Striker

Background & Recent Form
“Demolidor” Pereira made his UFC debut in May 2019 and has amassed a 31-13 record, showcasing his unorthodox striking flair and highlight-reel finishes. His last five outings:

• Loss vs. Abus Magomedov (Decision – Unanimous) – UFC Shanghai, Apr. 2025
• Loss vs. Anthony Hernandez (KO/TKO, R5 2:22) – UFC Las Vegas, Oct. 2024
• Win vs. Ihor Potieria (Submission, R1 0:54) – UFC Columbus, May 2024
• Win vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Submission, R1 1:01) – UFC Paris, Mar. 2024
• Win vs. Andre Petroski (KO/TKO, R1 1:06) – UFC Las Vegas, Oct. 2023

Pereira has alternated thrilling first-round stoppages with setbacks against well-rounded opponents, but his ability to produce fight-ending moments keeps him in high demand.

Strengths

• Dynamic Striking: 52% significant strike accuracy, powered by spinning attacks and unpredictable angles.
• Finishing Instinct: 14 first-round finishes; 11 wins by knockout.
• Takedown Defense: 76%—he can keep fights upright against wrestling-heavy foes.

Weaknesses

• Durability Questions: Two knockout losses in his last four fights suggest a vulnerability to power strikers.
• Consistency: His unorthodox style can backfire against pressure fighters who cut off the cage.
• Grappling Susceptibility: 52% takedown accuracy—though defensive, he can be overpowered in scrambles.

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Kyle Daukaus Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Grappler / Submission Specialist

Background & Recent Form
Daukaus debuted in June 2020 and quickly made his name with slick jiu-jitsu. His pro record stands at 11-4, but he’s faced a rough patch in the UFC:

• Loss vs. Eryk Anders (KO/TKO, R2 2:45) – UFC Orlando, Dec. 2022
• Loss vs. Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1 1:13) – UFC Las Vegas, Jun. 2022
• Win vs. Jamie Pickett (Submission, R1 4:59) – UFC Vegas 48, Feb. 2022
• Loss vs. Kevin Holland (Other, R1 3:43) – UFC Vegas 38, Oct. 2021
• Loss vs. Phillip Hawes (Decision – Unanimous) – UFC Vegas 27, May 2021

Despite a strong grappling pedigree, Daukaus has struggled with high-level strikers and pressure fighters.

Strengths

• Ground Control: 26% takedown accuracy paired with 83% takedown defense—he dictates where the fight goes.
• Submission Prowess: 9 of his 11 wins via submission, with a dangerous rear-naked choke.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 9:43, showing he can grind late.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 42% significant strike defense—vulnerable to volume and power.
• Finishing Power: 0 knockout wins; reliance on grappling limits his threat on the feet.
• Early-Fight Vulnerability: Two first–round KO losses reveal potential lapses in takedown entries and striking exchanges.

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Tactical Outlook

This bout is a classic clash of skill sets: Pereira’s explosive, unpredictable stand-up versus Daukaus’s methodical, submission-oriented grappling. Pereira will seek to keep the fight vertical, using his 52-inch arm reach and diverse striking arsenal to break down Daukaus. Conversely, Daukaus must close the distance, secure takedowns, and work from top position to neutralize Pereira’s offense. Key factors include Pereira’s ability to defend takedowns under pressure and Daukaus’s capacity to avoid early power shots and maintain grappling control. The winner will be the one who imposes their style most effectively on fight night.

Betting Odds and Line History

Current Odds Overview

• Michel Pereira (Favorite)
  • FanDuel: -350
  • BetOnline.ag: -270
• Kyle Daukaus (Underdog)
  • FanDuel: +255
  • BetOnline.ag: +230

With Pereira priced heavily in the favorite’s role and Daukaus sitting firmly on the underdog side, there’s a clear gap in public perception. At FanDuel, backing Pereira requires a $350 wager to win $100, whereas a $100 bet on Daukaus returns $255. BetOnline.ag offers a slightly gentler juice on Pereira at –270 but drops the underdog payoff to +230.

Line Movement & Betting Trends

Tracking the odds over the past 48 hours reveals significant line shifts on both sides:

• Pereira
  • Aug. 15: –295 (FanDuel) → Aug. 16: –350
  • Aug. 16: –270 (BetOnline.ag)
• Daukaus
  • Aug. 15: +220 (FanDuel) → Aug. 16: +255
  • Aug. 16: +230 (BetOnline.ag)

These swings suggest sharp action on Pereira, pushing his number out from –295 to –350 as money poured in on the Brazilian’s dynamic striking. Simultaneously, Daukaus saw his line move from +220 up to +255, indicating some late support for the American grappler but not enough to close the gap. The change on BetOnline.ag mirrors the FanDuel trend, although both shops remain slightly more generous to bettors on each side.

Payouts on a $1,000 Wager

• Michel Pereira
  • At –350 (FanDuel): A $1,000 bet returns $1,285 (profit of $285).
  • At –270 (BetOnline.ag): A $1,000 bet returns $1,370 (profit of $370).
• Kyle Daukaus
  • At +255 (FanDuel): A $1,000 bet returns $3,550 (profit of $2,550).
  • At +230 (BetOnline.ag): A $1,000 bet returns $3,300 (profit of $2,300).

Implied Chances

Based on the current lines:

• Pereira is viewed as having roughly a 75–78% chance to win.
• Daukaus carries around a 25–28% chance in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• If you’re backing Pereira, BetOnline.ag’s –270 line offers the best value (smaller negative number) and the highest profit on a winning bet.
• If you’re siding with the underdog, FanDuel’s +255 gives you the biggest payday.

Overall, FanDuel stands out for line transparency and live updates, making it our top recommendation for most bettors. However, sharp bettors might shop around and split their action: lock in Pereira at BetOnline.ag and Daukaus at FanDuel to maximize your upside.