Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa Odds & Analysis | UFC 319

Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa Fight Analysis

Introduction

The Women’s Flyweight clash between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa is set to ignite the Octagon on Saturday, August 16, 2025, as part of the Early Preliminary Card for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev. The action will take place at the iconic United Center in Chicago, Illinois, with this bout scheduled to kick off at approximately 5:00 PM CT / 6:00 PM ET. As the opening act on the early prelims, both fighters will be eager to set the tone and send a statement to the rest of the 125-pound division.

Fight Context & Stakes

This matchup not only pits two Brazilian contenders against one another, but also carries significant momentum implications. Karine Silva (18-5-0) currently holds the edge as the -220 favorite (via BetMGM), boasting a prolific finish rate with 13 first-round stoppages. Ranked inside the Flyweight Top 15 at #11, Silva has quickly emerged as one of the most explosive submission threats in the division. On the other side, Dione Barbosa (8-3-0) enters as the +190 underdog (via Caesars), seeking to capitalize on her grappling pedigree—showcasing four first-round submissions in just three UFC outings.

Both women share Brazilian roots and a grappling-heavy skill set, but their paths to this point differ markedly. Silva made her UFC debut in June 2022 and, despite five losses on her ledger, has demonstrated remarkable resilience and finishing prowess, averaging just 8:04 of fight time per outing. Her 39% significant strike accuracy and 50% takedown success rate underscore a well-rounded offensive arsenal. Conversely, Barbosa debuted in May 2024 and has already impressed with a 50% significant strike success rate and four submissions on her resume, yet her 43% takedown defense raises questions when facing opponents of Silva’s caliber.

Favorite vs. Underdog Dynamics

• Favorite: Karine Silva
  • Odds: -220 to -235 (BetMGM, FanDuel)
  • UFC Record: 18-5-0
  • Finishes: 9 KOs, 8 submissions, 13 first-round stoppages
  • Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with improving striking
• Underdog: Dione Barbosa
  • Odds: +170 to +190 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag)
  • UFC Record: 8-3-0
  • Finishes: 4 submissions, 4 first-round stoppages
  • Style: Grappler with solid defensive striking

Silva’s proven track record against high-level Flyweights gives her a clear edge, both on the feet and in transitions. Barbosa, however, brings youthful momentum and a relentless submission game that has ended four fights early. This clash of styles—Silva’s evolving striking arsenal versus Barbosa’s grappling aggression—promises fireworks in Chicago.

As the early prelims get underway at the United Center, expect Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa to be a can’t-miss grappling duel that could reshape the Women’s Flyweight landscape. Stay tuned for in-depth analysis, betting insights, and our official picks later in the week!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Karine Silva Profile

Age: 31
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with an ever-improving striking arsenal

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Nov. 16, 2024: Loss vs. Viviane Araujo — Decision (Unanimous)
• Apr. 27, 2024: Win vs. Ariane Da Silva — Decision (Unanimous)
• Aug. 19, 2023: Win vs. Maryna Moroz — Submission (Arm-Triangle), R1, 4:59
• Jun. 3, 2023: Win vs. Ketlen Souza — Submission (Armbar), R1, 1:45
• Jun. 4, 2022: Win vs. Poliana Botelho — Submission (Armbar), R1, 4:55

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: 13 of 18 UFC victories end in the first round, showcasing killer instinct early.
• Takedown Offense: 50% takedown accuracy allows Silva to dictate grappling exchanges.
• Submission Variety: Eight career submissions, including high-pressure armbars and triangles once the fight hits the mat.
• Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of just 8:04 suggests a relentless, forward-pressure style that wears opponents down.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: At 48% significant strike defense, Silva concedes too many clean shots, leaving openings for counter-strikers.
• Takedown Defense: Listed at 0%, indicating vulnerability when roles are reversed—dangerous against strong wrestlers.
• Adjustments After Loss: Came up short against Araujo by decision, hinting at challenges against opponents who can neutralize her ground game.

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Dione Barbosa Profile

Age: 32
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Grappler with a solid submission pedigree and growing striking confidence

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Apr. 5, 2025: Win vs. Diana Belbita — Submission (Armbar), R1, 4:13
• Jul. 20, 2024: Loss vs. Miranda Maverick — Decision (Unanimous)
• May 4, 2024: Win vs. Ernesta Kareckaite — Decision (Unanimous)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy: Boasts a 50% significant strike accuracy, allowing her to land half of all power shots she throws.
• Defensive Striking: 67% significant strike defense shows her ability to evade or block two-thirds of opponents’ strikes.
• Submission Savvy: Four career submissions, all showcasing tight control and willingness to hunt for chokes and armbars.
• Early Finisher: Four first-round stoppages in only 11 pro outings, indicating strong opening-round explosiveness.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense: At 43%, Barbosa has trouble stuffing takedowns against top-level wrestlers—a critical red flag versus Silva.
• Takedown Offense: 33% accuracy on her own takedowns—less reliable when attempting to close distance and secure grappling.
• Experience Gap: Only three UFC fights to Silva’s 23, meaning Barbosa may struggle with a veteran’s pace and adjustments.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This all-Brazilian clash features a battle of grappling-centric arsenals with contrasting nuances. Silva’s elite takedown game and high-octane finishing ability clash with Barbosa’s pinpoint striking and defensive acumen. Silva must shore up her defensive liabilities and avoid extended striking exchanges, while Barbosa needs to leverage her stand-up precision and keep the fight upright long enough to negate Silva’s ground dominance. Whoever executes their game plan under the bright lights of the United Center will emerge with crucial momentum in the Women’s Flyweight division.

Odds & Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Karine Silva holds a firm edge on the moneyline, with odds ranging from -220 (BetMGM) to -235 (FanDuel). In contrast, Dione Barbosa is firmly in underdog territory, sitting between +170 (DraftKings) and +190 (Caesars). That spread means Silva is the clear favorite, and Barbosa the underdog, with roughly a 420-point differential between the shortest favorite line (-235) and the biggest underdog line (+190).

• Favorite: Karine Silva (–235 at FanDuel)
• Underdog: Dione Barbosa (+190 at Caesars)
• Best Sportsbook for Silva: DraftKings and BetOnline.ag currently offer the most favorable price at –205
• Best Sportsbook for Barbosa: Caesars stands out with the top underdog payout of +190

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking the line movement over the past two weeks reveals significant shifts:

• Karine Silva opened as high as –150 on July 31 (BetOnline.ag) before gradually sliding to –235 by August 14 (FanDuel). That reflects growing confidence from sharp bettors backing Silva’s proven finish rate.
• Dione Barbosa started at +130 (BetOnline.ag, July 31) and climbed to +190 at Caesars by August 14. The underdog line drift indicates size-able money backing Silva, pinching Barbosa’s price higher.

These swings—85 cents for Silva and 60 cents for Barbosa—underscore how the betting public and professional sharps have responded to matchup breakdowns, camp reports, and sharpening positions.

Potential Payout on a $1,000 Bet

If you’re weighing a $1,000 wager, here’s what you’d collect:

• On Karine Silva at –235 (e.g., FanDuel): You’d net approximately $425 profit, collecting roughly $1,425 back in total.
• On Dione Barbosa at +190 (Caesars): You’d enjoy around $1,900 profit, for a total return close to $2,900.

Implied Probabilities

Without bogging you down in math, those odds translate into roughly:

• Silva: High-60s to low-70s percent chance to win
• Barbosa: Mid-30s percent chance to pull off the upset

Key Takeaways

• Sharp Money: The line movement heavily favors Silva, suggesting insiders see a clear path to victory for the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist.
• Value Spot: If you believe Barbosa’s striking defense and submission game can neutralize Silva’s takedowns, Caesars’ +190 represents the best underdog value.
• Favorite Edge: For wagering on Silva, consider DraftKings’ –205 as the softest line, maximizing your potential return on the favorite.

Whether you back the heavy-handed Silva or look for Barbosa to shock the world, understanding these odds dynamics is crucial before locking in your pick. Good luck!