Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Odds & Pick Analysis | UFC 321

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane fight analysis

Introduction

The stage is set for one of the most highly anticipated Heavyweight Title bouts of 2025, as reigning champion Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) defends his crown against top contender Ciryl Gane (13-2-0). This clash will headline the main card of UFC 321, live from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Saturday, October 25, 2025. The main card is slated to begin at approximately 6:00 PM GST, with the pay-per-view action kicking off later in the evening for North American audiences.

Tom Aspinall, the hard-hitting English powerhouse, enters this matchup as the overwhelming favorite across all major sportsbooks, currently sitting around -400 in the American odds format. Aspinall’s rapid ascent—from UFC debut in March 2020 to heavyweight gold—has been powered by a staggering 14 first-round finishes and a 100% takedown success rate. At 32 years old, “The Assassin” possesses a unique blend of freestyle wrestling acumen, explosive knockout power (12 KOs), and an unshakeable chin, all of which have propelled him to the pinnacle of the division. His most recent triumph came on July 27, 2024, when he dismantled Curtis Blaydes via first-round TKO in under one minute to claim the vacant title, showcasing his fearless striking and pinpoint accuracy (67% significant strike accuracy).

On the other side of the Octagon stands Ciryl Gane, France’s most technically gifted heavyweight and the clear underdog at around +310. A former interim titleholder, Gane boasts an unblemished Muay Thai foundation, towering reach (81″ arms), and the footwork of a much lighter athlete. At 35 years old, he remains one of the division’s most cerebral fighters, relying on counterstriking, movement, and selective aggression. Gane’s resume includes signature wins over Sergei Spivac (KO/TKO, Sept 2023) and Alexander Volkov (split-decision, Dec 2024), but he has fallen short against the division’s elite—most notably via first-round submission to Jon Jones and a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou. His defensive metrics (62% sig strike defense) and striking output make him a dangerous opponent capable of derailing Aspinall’s forward pressure, but he must solve the champion’s wrestling and finishing instincts to emerge victorious.

This championship encounter represents more than just a title defense; it’s a pivotal moment that could define the next era of the heavyweight division. Will Aspinall’s relentless finishing ability and perfect wrestling credentials prove too much for Gane’s slick technical striking? Or can the Frenchman employ his dynamic movement and fight IQ to dethrone the young king? As the betting lines suggest, the odds heavily favor Aspinall, but in MMA anything can happen once the bell rings. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely as two of the world’s finest heavyweights collide under the bright lights of Abu Dhabi.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Tom Aspinall: The Reigning Champion

Age: 32
Country: England
Fighting Style: Freestyle (Wrestling-based striker)

Recent Form

• Jul. 27, 2024: Win vs. Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO, R1 – 1:00)
• Nov. 11, 2023: Win vs. Sergei Pavlovich (KO/TKO, R1 – 1:09)
• Jul. 22, 2023: Win vs. Marcin Tybura (KO/TKO, R1 – 1:13)
• Jul. 23, 2022: Loss vs. Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO, R1 – 0:15)
• Mar. 19, 2022: Win vs. Alexander Volkov (Submission, R1 – 3:45)

Aspinall has rattled off four finishes in five fights, including three first-round knockouts. His lone setback came in a rematch with Blaydes, but he responded by capturing the vacant heavyweight title in emphatic fashion against the same opponent.

Strengths

• Explosive Finishing Power: 12 of his 15 wins via KO/TKO, with 14 first-round finishes total.
• Perfect Takedown Metrics: 100% takedown accuracy and defense—rare for a heavyweight.
• Striking Efficiency: 67% significant strike accuracy combined with 65% defense, allowing him to land heavy shots while minimizing incoming damage.
• Quick Starts: Average fight time of 2:02; opponents rarely see Round 2.

Weaknesses

• Cardio in Deep Waters: Rarely fights past the opening round; untested in later rounds or five-round title wars.
• Pressure Susceptibility: When opponents weather the early storm, Aspinall has shown moments of fatigue.
• Overcommitment Risk: High-octane starts can leave him open to counters or takedown attempts if he misses.

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Ciryl Gane: The Technical Artiste

Age: 35
Country: France
Fighting Style: Muay Thai (Technical striker with movement)

Recent Form

• Dec. 7, 2024: Win vs. Alexander Volkov (Decision – Split)
• Sep. 2, 2023: Win vs. Serghei Spivac (KO/TKO, R2 – 3:44)
• Mar. 4, 2023: Loss vs. Jon Jones (Submission, R1 – 2:04)
• Sep. 3, 2022: Win vs. Tai Tuivasa (KO/TKO, R3 – 4:23)
• Jan. 22, 2022: Loss vs. Francis Ngannou (Decision – Unanimous)

Gane’s last five outings reflect his elite striking pedigree and fight IQ, punctuated by wins over Volkov and Spivac but blemished by losses to division legends Ngannou and Jones.

Strengths

• Striking Prowess: 61% sig strike accuracy and 62% defense—cornerstones of his counter-striking mastery.
• Dynamic Movement: Utilizes footwork and feints to control distance and frustrate heavy hitters.
• Fight IQ: Adapts mid-fight, mixing kicks, teeps and precise combinations to exploit opponent tendencies.
• Experience in Five Rounds: Comfortable pacing in championship-length contests (Avg. fight time: 14:15).

Weaknesses

• Wrestling Deficit: 25% takedown accuracy and 44% takedown defense leave him vulnerable to elite grapplers.
• Less Finishing Upside: Only 6 KOs and 3 submissions across 13 wins—relies on decisions if finishes don’t materialize.
• Aging Window: At 35, durability and reflexes may wane against younger power punchers like Aspinall.

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This heavyweight showdown pits Aspinall’s relentless finishing assault and perfect wrestling metrics against Gane’s technical striking and championship experience. The contrasting styles and statistical profiles set the stage for a true chess match—will Aspinall’s power and pace overwhelm, or can Gane’s ring generalship and defense craft an upset?

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As things stand, Tom Aspinall enters this title defense as the clear favorite, while Ciryl Gane checks in as the underdog across every major sportsbook. Here’s a snapshot of the current main-card moneyline odds (American format):

• Tom Aspinall:

  • BetRivers: –400
  • DraftKings: –395
  • BetMGM & Caesars: –425
  • Bovada: –400
  • FanDuel: –460
  • BetOnline.ag: –370

• Ciryl Gane:

  • BetRivers, BetMGM & DraftKings: +310
  • Caesars: +290
  • Bovada: +300
  • FanDuel: +320
  • BetOnline.ag: +295

At –400, Aspinall is a heavy favorite, implying he is expected to win roughly four times out of five. Gane, at around +310, remains the longshot—landing upset payouts over three-to-one.

Best Value on the Board

• Top Underdog Payout (Gane): FanDuel’s +320 offers the highest return. A $1,000 wager here would yield $3,200 in winnings, for a total payout of $4,200 (including your stake).
• Top Favorite Payout (Aspinall): BetOnline.ag’s –370 is the softest favorite line. A $1,000 bet would net you approximately $270, for a total payout of $1,270.

While most books cluster around –400/+310, hunting for the softest favorite (for slight upside) or juiciest underdog line can boost your potential returns.

Line Movement and Historical Swings

Tracking the line movement reveals where sharp money and public sentiment have swung:

• Ciryl Gane (BetRivers):

  • Sept. 30: +295
  • Oct. 8 (early): +310
  • Oct. 8 (later): +350
  • Oct. 10: +370
  • Oct. 13 (current): +310

  Gane’s line first drifted out to as long as +370 before settling back near +310—suggesting heavy early betting on Aspinall, then some pushback as late money supported Gane.

• Tom Aspinall (BetRivers):

  • Sept. 30: –385
  • Oct. 8 (early): –420
  • Oct. 8 (later): –480
  • Oct. 10: –500
  • Oct. 13 (current): –400

  Aspinall peaked at a monumental –500, then “softened” back to –400 as underdog bets poured in, trimming the favorite line.

DraftKings shows a similar story: Gane drifting from +285 to +300, and Aspinall from –360 to –380, then –395. These swings illustrate the ebb and flow of confidence on both sides.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

• $1,000 on Tom Aspinall (–400):

  • Winnings: $250 → Total Return: $1,250
  • Implied Chance: ~80%

• $1,000 on Tom Aspinall (–370):

  • Winnings: $270 → Total Return: $1,270

• $1,000 on Ciryl Gane (+310):

  • Winnings: $3,100 → Total Return: $4,100
  • Implied Chance: ~24%

• $1,000 on Ciryl Gane (+320):

  • Winnings: $3,200 → Total Return: $4,200

With the champion heavily favored, payout upside is limited on Aspinall. Gane’s underdog line, especially at +320 on FanDuel, delivers the kind of blockbuster return that appeals to risk‐takers. Whichever way you lean, comparing sportsbooks for the softest favorite or juiciest underdog line remains a key strategy for maximizing your edge.