UFC 321: Volkov vs Almeida Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida fight analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for October 25, 2025, because the UFC’s heavyweight division will deliver another high-stakes showdown when Alexander Volkov squares off against Jailton Almeida. This clash takes place on the main card of UFC 321, hosted at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. With the bout slated to begin at approximately 6:00 PM GMT, fight fans around the globe will tune in to witness two of the division’s most dangerous competitors collide under the bright lights of Yas Island.

In this matchup, Jailton Almeida enters as the betting favorite, currently lined at –165 on most major books. The Brazilian wrestler has carved out an impressive 22–3 professional record, boasting 16 first-round finishes and a staggering 66% significant strike accuracy. His relentless grappling and suffocating top control have made him one of the toughest matchups in the division’s top five—he sits at #5 in the official rankings. Almeida’s most recent highlight reel came in January 2025, when he dismantled Serghei Spivac via first-round TKO, showcasing a perfect blend of power and precision.

On the other side of the Octagon stands Russian veteran Alexander Volkov, the well-rounded, 6′7″ striker who represents one of the most popular underdog bargains of the year at +132. With a career record of 38–11 and a resume that includes 24 knockouts, Volkov remains a threat anywhere the fight goes. His latest appearance in June 2024 resulted in a unanimous decision win over former title challenger Sergei Pavlovich, demonstrating improved wrestling defense and a more measured approach to his legendary knockout arsenal. Currently ranked #2 in the heavyweight division, Volkov will be looking to rebound from a narrow split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane late last year.

This bout offers an intriguing stylistic contrast:

• Almeida’s Wrestling Prowess: A 60% takedown accuracy and 60% takedown defense mean he can impose his will on the mat, finish fights early, and sap opponents of both confidence and cardio.
• Volkov’s Striking and BJJ Base: With a 57% significant strike accuracy and respectable 72% takedown defense, Volkov can keep the fight standing, utilize his vast reach (80″ arm reach), and deploy his underrated ground game when needed.

As the UFC’s heavyweight landscape continues to shift—especially with champion Jon Jones sidelined due to injury—this fight could have serious implications for the next title challenger. Will Almeida’s grappling dominance prove too much for the towering Russian slugger, or will Volkov land that one punch to derail the Brazilian’s ascent? Read on for a deep dive into each fighter’s recent form, stylistic keys, and value bets you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

As Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida prepare to lock horns at UFC 321’s main card in Abu Dhabi, the clash of contrasting styles and veteran pedigree promises fireworks. Below, we break down each fighter’s background, recent trajectory, and the statistical strengths and vulnerabilities that will define this heavyweight showdown.

Jailton Almeida: The Brazilian Grappling Specialist

Age & Origin
• Age: 34
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Wrestler (60% takedown accuracy, 60% takedown defense)

Record & Recent Form
• Professional: 22–3–0
• Finishing prowess: 16 first-round finishes, 13 submissions, 8 KOs
• Last five UFC bouts:

1. Jan. 18, 2025 – Win vs Serghei Spivac (KO/TKO, R1, 4:53)
2. June 1, 2024 – Win vs Alexandr Romanov (Submission, R1, 2:27)
3. March 9, 2024 – Loss vs Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO, R2, 0:36)
4. Nov. 4, 2023 – Win vs Derrick Lewis (Unanimous Decision, 5:00)
5. May 13, 2023 – Win vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Submission, R1, 3:43)

Strengths

• Elite Grappling: With a 60% takedown success rate and a relentless top-control style, Almeida smothers opponents before they can mount offense.
• Finishing Instinct: His 13 submission wins and 8 KOs demonstrate a killer sixth sense for capitalizing on any opportunity.
• High-Volume Striking: 66% significant strike accuracy allows him to pick shots in transition and punish opponents during takedown entries.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: At 42% sig-strike defense, Almeida can be vulnerable to heavy counterpunchers if he overcommits to level changes.
• Cardio in Deep Waters: His average fight time of 6:50 suggests fewer three-round wars; if Volkov drags him into late rounds, Almeida may fade.

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Alexander Volkov: The Russian Powerhouse

Age & Origin
• Age: 36
• Country: Russia (Moscow)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Kickboxing (57% strike accuracy, 72% takedown defense)

Record & Recent Form
• Professional: 38–11–0
• Finish rate: 17 first-round finishes, 24 KOs, 4 submissions
• Last five UFC bouts:

1. Dec. 7, 2024 – Loss vs Ciryl Gane (Split Decision, 3 × 5:00)
2. June 22, 2024 – Win vs Sergei Pavlovich (Unanimous Decision, 3 × 5:00)
3. Sept. 9, 2023 – Win vs Tai Tuivasa (Submission, R2, 4:37)
4. March 11, 2023 – Win vs Alexandr Romanov (KO/TKO, R1, 2:16)
5. June 4, 2022 – Win vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (KO/TKO, R1, 2:12)

Strengths

• Striking & Reach: Standing 6′7″ with an 80″ reach, Volkov leverages a 57% significant strike accuracy to keep opponents at bay and unleash fight-ending power.
• Defensive Wrestling: A stellar 72% takedown defense means he can often thwart grapplers’ entries and force stand-up battles.
• Experience & Durability: With 49 UFC fights since 2016, Volkov’s gas tank and fight IQ in deep waters (average fight time of 12:57) give him an edge in late-round scenarios.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Vulnerability: Despite strong defense, his 67% takedown accuracy isn’t elite—top wrestlers can still sneak in shots.
• Cardio Under Duress: Tests against high-pressure wrestlers can sap his pace; when opponents close the distance relentlessly, Volkov’s output can stall.

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This heavyweight bout pits Almeida’s suffocating grappling and finishing instincts against Volkov’s dynamic striking and veteran savvy. As the favored Brazilian looks to implement relentless pressure, the Russian underdog will seek to keep the fight at range and drag Almeida into deeper waters where his experience shines.

Odds and Line Movement

As fight night approaches, the betting odds for Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Volkov have settled in, but sharp action has already produced significant line swings. Below, we break down the current prices, track how the market has shifted, and highlight where you’ll find the best value on fight night.

Current Betting Odds

• Jailton Almeida (Favorite):
  • BetRivers: –165
  • Bovada: –165
  • BetOnline.ag: –160
• Alexander Volkov (Underdog):
  • BetRivers: +132
  • Bovada: +140
  • BetOnline.ag: +140

Jailton Almeida enters as the clear favorite across the board, with prices anchored around –165. Alexander Volkov is the underdog, trading in the +130s to +140s. If you’re seeking the most generous prices on both sides, BetOnline.ag currently leads the way: Almeida at –160 and Volkov at +140.

Line Movement Analysis

The heavyweight showdown has seen notable momentum in both directions:

• Almeida’s Drift: Early odds on Almeida sat as short as –235 at BetOnline.ag and –210 at Bovada. Heavy early money on Volkov caused Almeida’s line to slip steadily to the mid –160s.
• Volkov’s Shortening: Volkov opened as long as +200 on BetOnline.ag and +175 at Bovada. As bettors recognized his value as a live dog, his price tightened into the +140s.

These swings suggest sharp bettors are backing Volkov, believing his veteran savvy and reach advantage give him a real shot. Meanwhile, casual money on the Brazilian grappler has been tempered by those same sharp wagers, leading to Almeida’s drift.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While most books line up similarly, BetOnline.ag offers the best combination of odds for both fighters:

• Almeida at –160 (better than –165 elsewhere)
• Volkov at +140 (tops vs. +132 at BetRivers)

If you want to maximize your return, locking in your bets at BetOnline.ag is the smart move.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter at these current odds, here’s what you’d collect:

• Betting on Almeida (–165)
  You’d cash out around $1,600 total ($1,000 stake + ~$600 profit).
• Betting on Volkov (+140)
  You’d pocket about $2,400 total ($1,000 stake + $1,400 profit).

In terms of implied probabilities, Almeida’s price suggests he’s viewed as the roughly three-to-two favorite, while Volkov’s line reflects him as a +140 underdog with a solid chance to pull off the upset. No matter which side you prefer, understanding these odds and monitoring further line movement is crucial—especially in a matchup where styles make fights and betting markets can shift quickly.