Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo UFC 321 Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo fight analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, October 25, 2025, rising flyweight contender Azat Maksum will lock horns with UFC newcomer Mitch Raposo as part of the Preliminary Card at UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane. The action kicks off at 14:00 UTC from the world-class Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, marking another evening of high-stakes MMA under the bright lights of one of the fastest-growing fight markets on the planet.

Venue & Event Context

• Event: UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane
• Card: Preliminary Card (early main card fights ahead of the headliners)
• Date & Time: October 25, 2025, 14:00 UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE

This flyweight showdown serves as a critical springboard for both athletes. For Azat Maksum, a 30-year-old striker with a 15-2 professional record, this bout offers an opportunity to solidify his place among the division’s elite. Mitch Raposo, a 26-year-old freestyle fighter making only his third UFC appearance (9-3 pro record), seeks to upset the odds and announce himself on the global stage.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

In the eyes of the sportsbooks, Azat Maksum enters as the heavy favorite at -305 (American odds), reflecting his superior 15–2 record, robust takedown defense (86%), and proven finishing ability (10 of 17 wins by stoppage, including 5 first-round finishes). His recent battles have showcased a well-rounded skill set—mixing calculated striking with defensive wrestling—that has earned him consistently short odds across major bookmakers (e.g., BetRivers, BetOnline.ag).

Standing across the Octagon is the underdog, Mitch Raposo, priced at +240. Despite two consecutive split-decision losses at UFC levels, Raposo brings intriguing attributes: a 34% significant strike accuracy, a willingness to engage early (4 first-round finishes in 9 wins), and a respectable 38% takedown accuracy. His bouts average just under 13 minutes, hinting at a fighter unafraid of a firefight.

Stakes & Storylines

• Azat Maksum looks to rebound after a narrow defeat to Tagir Ulanbekov in June 2025. A victory here would re-establish his contender status and propel him closer to a top-10 flyweight clash.
• Mitch Raposo must shake off back-to-back split decision setbacks and prove he can handle the pace and pressure of international competition. A win over a seasoned opponent like Maksum would instantly vault him up the divisional ladder.

With contrasting styles—Maksum’s patient striking and high-level takedown defense versus Raposo’s grappling instincts and finishing proclivity—this matchup has all the makings of a compelling scrap. Whether you’re backing the favorite to dominate or riding the +240 payout on the underdog, Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo promises fireworks to open the UFC 321 fight card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Azat Maksum Profile

Age: 30
Country: Kazakhstan
Fighting Style: Striker
Record: 15–2–0 (4 KOs, 6 Submissions)

Recent Form

• Jun. 21, 2025 – Loss to Tagir Ulanbekov (Decision)
• Feb. 3, 2024 – Loss to Charles Johnson (Decision – Unanimous)
• Jul. 15, 2023 – Win over Tyson Nam (Decision – Split)

Azat Maksum has alternated victories and setbacks in his last three UFC outings. His technical kickboxing and solid defensive wrestling carried him to a narrow split-decision win over Tyson Nam in July 2023, but subsequent losses to Charles Johnson and Tagir Ulanbekov have exposed areas for improvement.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (86%): Maksum is one of the best in the flyweight division at preventing ground engagements. His 86% takedown defense frustrates wrestlers and scramble artists.
• Experience & Durability: With 17 UFC-level rounds under his belt, Maksum rarely fades. He only averages 15:00 per fight, demonstrating excellent cardio and mental toughness.
• Finishing Ability: Five first-round finishes reveal he can capitalize on openings, whether by strikes or submissions.

Weaknesses

• Strike Accuracy (29%): He lands fewer than three out of every ten significant strikes, allowing opponents to outwork him on volume.
• Takedown Offense (28%): Maksum attempts takedowns sparingly. Against aggressive grapplers, he may be forced into uncomfortable positions without counter-offense.
• Adaptability Under Pressure: Two unanimous/split decision losses suggest that when fighters stick to a game plan and pressure him consistently, he struggles to adjust mid-fight.

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Mitch Raposo Profile

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle (Wrestling-Heavy)
Record: 9–3–0 (4 KOs, 3 Submissions)

Recent Form

• Apr. 12, 2025 – Loss to Mudaerji (Decision – Split)
• Jun. 1, 2024 – Loss to Andre Lima (Decision – Split)
• UFC Debut Jun. 1, 2024 – Highlighted by a violent first-round finish on the regional circuit.

Raposo’s UFC tenure began with back-to-back split-decision defeats, both razor-thin outcomes that underscore his competitive grit but also highlight his difficulty in swaying judges.

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: Four first-round finishes in nine wins point to a fighter who looks to end things early—dangerous in an opening flurry.
• Takedown Accuracy (38%): Above-average takedown success allows him to dictate where the fight goes, especially against less explosive wrestlers.
• Significant Strike Defense (55%): Raposo avoids over half of incoming significant strikes, giving him opportunities to counter effectively.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (50%): A flip-of-the-coin rate suggests vulnerability if his opponent chooses to clinch or wrestle.
• Strike Accuracy (34%): While better than Maksum, landing only one in three strikes won’t overwhelm a defensively sound foe.
• Decision Reliance: Both UFC losses came via split decisions, indicating difficulty imposing a clear narrative on scorecards.

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Comparative Analysis

• Physical Attributes: Maksum’s 67″ reach and two-inch height advantage could help him keep Raposo at bay, while Raposo’s compact style and wrestling roots can neutralize that range.
• Pace & Fight IQ: Maksum paces himself for three rounds; Raposo often charges early. Should Raposo fail to secure a finish, Maksum’s cardio and ring generalship may prevail.
• Key Battleground: Raposo must blend wrestling entries with power strikes to break down Maksum’s defense. Maksum, meanwhile, will rely on technical striking and elite takedown defense to frustrate the underdog.

This clash between a seasoned striker with elite defensive wrestling and a hungry freestyle grappler with knockout upside shapes up as a classic stylistic puzzle—one where timing, adaptability, and fight-IQ will decide who moves closer to flyweight contention.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Favorite: Azat Maksum
  • BetRivers: -305
  • BetOnline.ag: -295
• Underdog: Mitch Raposo
  • BetRivers: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +255

Azat Maksum commands heavy favorite status across the board, with odds sitting around -300 at major books. Mitch Raposo, meanwhile, is priced firmly as the underdog, with double-digit plus money that reflects bettors’ expectations of an upset payout.

Best Sportsbook to Bet:
For either side, BetOnline.ag currently offers the sharpest prices:

• You’ll get Maksum at -295 (rather than -305), and
• Raposo at +255 (rather than +240).

That extra edge on both sides makes it the go-to shop if you’re sizing up a six-figure bankroll.

Line Movement & Market Flow

A look at the odds history reveals notable swings over the past 24 hours:

Azat Maksum

• BetRivers: Opened at -278, shortened to -305
• BetOnline.ag: Opened at -250, moved out to -295

Mitch Raposo

• BetRivers: Started at +215, drifted to +240
• BetOnline.ag: Began at +210, settled at +255

This shift indicates heavy money on Maksum—sharps have been hammering the favorite, forcing the lines to tighten. Raposo’s odds lengthened as books balanced their risk.

Implied Probabilities & Potential Payouts

• Azat Maksum (~75% implied chance): Betting $1,000 at -295 returns about $1,339 total (profit ~$339).
• Mitch Raposo (~28% implied chance): Betting $1,000 at +255 returns about $3,550 total (profit ~$2,550).

Whether you’re chasing the high-probability play on Maksum or swinging for a big payday with Raposo, knowing your return upfront is crucial for bankroll management.

What This Means for Bettors

• If you believe Maksum’s elite takedown defense and veteran savvy will carry him through, pulling the trigger on -295 at BetOnline.ag locks in the best return available on the favorite.
• If you see Raposo’s explosive first-round finishing upside as a legitimate path to victory—and you’re enticed by the +255 line—you’ll maximize your profit potential by backing him at BetOnline.ag as well.

Books have reacted swiftly to early action, and line movement suggests confidence in Maksum. However, the underdog’s payout is too juicy for value-hunters to ignore. Whether you play it safe or swing for the fences, understanding these lines and their evolution is the foundation of a smart UFC wager.