Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott fight analysis
Introduction
The Welterweight clash between Kevin Holland and Mike Malott is set to ignite the main card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen, headlining Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. The action kicks off on Saturday, October 18, 2025, with this highly anticipated pairing scheduled to hit the Octagon at approximately 4:00 PM PT / 7:00 PM ET (23:00 UTC). As two dynamic fighters collide in the heart of Canada’s west coast, fans can expect fireworks from the opening bell.
Event Details
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025 • 4:00 PM PT / 7:00 PM ET (23:00 UTC)
- Venue: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Card Position: Main Card, Welterweight Bout
Fighter Odds & Betting Preview
Heading into fight night, Mike Malott holds the edge in the eyes of oddsmakers. The Canadian contender is currently installed as the favorite with moneyline odds of –150 (FanDuel) and –135 (BetOnline.ag). Meanwhile, Kevin Holland goes in as the underdog, sporting a +118 line on FanDuel and +115 at BetOnline.ag. Those looking for value may be drawn to Holland’s underdog status, but Malott’s recent run of finishes and hometown advantage cannot be ignored.
Why This Fight Matters
For Mike Malott, this bout represents a pivotal opportunity to stake his claim in the crowded Welterweight division. The 33-year-old Canadian enters the cage with a 12-2-1 professional record, boasting a staggering nine first-round finishes—six by submission and five by knockout. His phenomenal 56% takedown accuracy and 48% significant strike accuracy make him a dual-threat on the feet and the mat. In front of a vocal hometown crowd at Rogers Arena, Malott is determined to build momentum toward a Top 15 ranking.
On the other side, Kevin Holland (28-14-0) is no stranger to high-stakes encounters. A seasoned veteran, Holland has shared the Octagon with some of the division’s best, earning 14 knockouts and nine submissions during his UFC tenure. Despite a recent skid—dropping three of his last four fights—Holland’s 50% striking accuracy, 55% takedown defense, and unorthodox Kung Fu style have delivered numerous highlight-reel moments. Known for his confidence and volume striking, the 32-year-old Riverside native seeks to silence doubters and upend the local favorite.
What to Watch For
- Malott’s Grappling: Can he capitalize on his 56% takedown success and ground expertise against Holland’s stout 55% takedown defense?
- Holland’s Volume Striking: Will “Trailblazer” find his rhythm and land significant strikes at his 50% accuracy rate to keep Malott at range?
- Fight Pace & Cardio: Malott’s average bout lasts 8:07, whereas Holland’s is 10:29—an edge if the fight extends beyond two rounds.
This Welterweight showdown promises a riveting blend of grappling exchanges, striking battles, and championship-level intensity. Whether you lean toward the hometown hero or believe in Holland’s comeback arc, expect an all-out war under the Vancouver lights. Stay tuned as we dive deeper into the keys, matchups, and predictions later in this breakdown.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.
Matchup & Fighter Profiles
Mike Malott Profile
Age: 33
Country: Canada
Fighting Style: MMA (Well-rounded striker and grappler)
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win vs Charles Radtke (KO/TKO, R2, 0:26) – May 2025
- Win vs Trevin Giles (Unanimous Decision, R3, 5:00) – Nov 2024
- Loss vs Neil Magny (KO/TKO, R3, 4:45) – Jan 2024
- Win vs Adam Fugitt (Submission, R2, 1:06) – Jun 2023
- Win vs Yohan Lainesse (Submission, R1, 4:15) – Feb 2023
Record: 12–2–1
Strengths
- Finishing Ability: 9 of 12 wins are first‐round or early stoppages (5 KOs, 6 submissions).
- Striking Accuracy: Lands 48% of significant strikes, pressuring opponents with precision.
- Wrestling Offense: Boasts a 56% takedown accuracy, demonstrating his ability to mix levels and control position.
- Early Fight Pace: Average fight time of 8:07 indicates he frequently dictates a fast-paced, finish-oriented affair.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense: Just 17% of opponent takedowns are stuffed, leaving him vulnerable to strong wrestlers.
- Durability Against Power Strikers: Suffered a KO loss to Neil Magny, suggesting potential susceptibility in prolonged striking exchanges.
- Cardio Depth: While aggressive early, may face conditioning tests if taken into deep waters due to sub-60% sig-strike defense (55%).
Kevin Holland Profile
Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Kung Fu (Unorthodox striker with creative angles)
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Loss vs Daniel Rodriguez (Unanimous Decision, R3, 5:00) – Jul 2025
- Loss vs Vicente Luque (Decision, method unspecified) – Jun 2025
- Win vs Gunnar Nelson (Unanimous Decision, R3, 5:00) – Mar 2025
- Loss vs Reinier de Ridder (Submission, R1, 3:31) – Jan 2025
- Loss vs Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1, 5:00) – Oct 2024
Record: 28–14–0
Strengths
- Volume Striking: Maintains a 50% significant strike accuracy over a high output, using his 81-inch reach to keep opponents at bay.
- Takedown Defense: Solid 55% takedown defense, making it difficult for adversaries to consistently bring him to the mat.
- Finishing Versatility: 23 of 28 wins come by finish (14 KOs, 9 subs), showing he can end fights both on feet and in grappling scrambles.
- Experience: 42 professional bouts with multiple high-profile opponents, bringing seasoned composure to big-stage moments.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Offense: Only 38% takedown accuracy, limiting his ability to reverse ground exchanges against elite wrestlers.
- Recent Slump: Four losses in his last five fights point to possible stylistic mismatches or confidence issues.
- Defense Under Pressure: Surrenders significant strikes at a 50% defense rate, making him susceptible to heavy hitters in tight exchanges.
Comparative Analysis
- Striking Duel: Holland’s extended reach (81″ vs. Malott’s 73″) and creative Kung Fu style could neutralize Malott’s straightforward striking, but Malott’s 48% accuracy and southpaw angles will test Holland’s 50% defense.
- Wrestling & Grappling: Malott carries the grappling edge with 56% takedown success, though Holland’s 55% takedown defense suggests he can blunt early ground threats. Should Malott impose his wrestling, Holland may be tethered against the cage.
- Pace & Cardio: Malott’s penchant for early finishes (avg. 8:07) contrasts with Holland’s tendency to grind into later rounds (avg. 10:29). If Holland weathers the early storm, his endurance edge could tilt momentum.
- Mental & Momentum: Malott enters on a three-fight win streak and enjoys home-field energy in Vancouver. Holland must rebound from a skid and shift the mental narrative to regain confidence.
This clash of styles—precision grappler vs. unorthodox brawler—creates a classic striker-vs. grappler chess match. Each man boasts clear strengths but also defined vulnerabilities. The keys will be whether Malott can secure levels and finishes early, or if Holland can leverage his reach, volume, and takedown defense to survive and outwork the hometown contender.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
Heading into UFC Fight Night in Vancouver, Mike Malott is firmly installed as the favorite across major sportsbooks. On FanDuel, Malott sits at –150, while BetOnline.ag offers a slightly juicier –135 line. His opponent, Kevin Holland, is the underdog. Holland’s best price is +118 on FanDuel and +115 at BetOnline.ag. This disparity highlights Malott’s perceived edge—moneyline bettors must risk more to back the Canadian, whereas Holland backers stand to earn a larger return if their man pulls off the upset.
Line Movement Over Time
A look at the odds history reveals notable swings in each corner:
- Mike Malott
- BetOnline.ag: Opened at –150 on Sept. 30 → drifted to –135 by Oct. 6
- FanDuel: Opened at –162 on Oct. 4 → settled at –150 by Oct. 6
- Kevin Holland
- BetOnline.ag: Opened at +130 on Sept. 30 → trimmed to +115 by Oct. 6
- FanDuel: Opened at +126 on Oct. 4 → moved to +118 by Oct. 6
These shifts suggest sharp action on both sides—Malott’s line easing slightly indicates early money on Holland, while Holland’s odds contracting points to confidence in his upside. Although neither price swing is dramatic, the concurrent movement reveals active wagering as fight night approaches.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you wager $1,000 on Mike Malott at –150, your total payout would be approximately $1,666.67 (your $1,000 stake plus $666.67 profit). Backing Kevin Holland at +118 turns $1,000 into $2,180 (your $1,000 stake plus $1,180 profit).
- Malott’s implied probability (based on his current minus-moneyline) hovers around 60%, reflecting his status as the betting favorite.
- Holland’s implied probability (based on his plus-moneyline) sits near 46%, underscoring his role as the underdog with upside appeal.
Top Sportsbooks for Value
- Best for Mike Malott: BetOnline.ag at –135 offers the most favorable price on the favorite, enhancing your potential profit margin.
- Best for Kevin Holland: FanDuel’s +118 is the sharpest underdog line available, boosting your payout if Holland secures the upset.
Whether you side with the hometown hero in Malott or chase the value on Holland, understanding line movement and shopping for the best odds is crucial. As the cage door slams shut in Vancouver, these numbers will frame the narrative—lay your bets where the value lies, and enjoy the fight.
AI Pick: Kevin Holland
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Kevin Holland, or see all the AI picks for de Ridder vs Allen. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
