UFC Figueiredo vs Jackson Predictions, Odds & Analysis

## Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson fight analysis

### Event Details
Get ready for a thrilling bantamweight showdown as **Deiveson Figueiredo** faces off against **Montel Jackson** on the **Main Card** of UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot. This bout is set for **Saturday, October 11, 2025**, with the first bell scheduled at **23:00 UTC** (local start time: approximately 8:00 PM in Rio de Janeiro). The action takes place inside the state-of-the-art **Farmasi Arena** in **Rio de Janeiro, Brazil**, marking one of the most anticipated nights of mixed martial arts in 2025.

### The Contenders
- **Deiveson Figueiredo** (“Deus da Guerra”)  
  • Country: Brazil  
  • UFC Bantamweight Ranking: #6  
  • Professional Record: 24-5-1  
  • Average Fight Time: 12:38  
  • Style: Boxing / Submission specialist  

- **Montel Jackson** (“Quik”)  
  • Country: United States  
  • UFC Bantamweight Ranking: #15  
  • Professional Record: 16-2-0  
  • Average Fight Time: 10:24  
  • Style: MMA striker with 63% takedown defense  

### Betting Lines & Key Matchup
Coming into this clash, **Montel Jackson** is installed as the clear **favorite** on the betting boards. At **–275** (American odds), Jackson attracts the bulk of action from sharp bettors who believe his crisp striking, 53% significant strike accuracy and stellar 68% takedown defense will neutralize Figueiredo’s grappling prowess. Jackson has been on an impressive run, going 5-0 in his last five UFC appearances—highlighted by swift first-round finishes over Rani Yahya and Damon Blackshear.

On the other side, **Deiveson Figueiredo** stands as the **underdog** at **+235**, yet this Brazilian warrior is never one to be written off lightly. A former flyweight champion, Figueiredo has demonstrated elite-level power (9 KOs), submission acumen (9 subs) and locator instincts inside the Octagon. Although he’s dropped back-to-back fights—most recently a second-round KO loss to Cory Sandhagen—his ability to rally, heavy hands and fight-finishing pedigree make him a live dog in hostile territory.

### What to Watch For
- **Striking Exchanges**: Jackson’s reach advantage (75.5” vs. 68”) and 54% sig-strike defense will be tested by Figueiredo’s pressure-driven boxing combinations.
- **Grappling Scrambles**: Figueiredo’s 35% takedown accuracy versus Jackson’s 63% defense; any successful trip could tilt the fight sharply.
- **Cardio & Fight IQ**: Jackson’s 10:24 average fight time suggests he pushes pace early, whereas Figueiredo’s longer outings (12:38) indicate a penchant for later-round finishes.

This bout promises fireworks as two contrasting styles collide in a pivotal bantamweight matchup. Will hometown hero Figueiredo capitalize on crowd energy and pull off the upset? Or will Jackson’s technical prowess and unbeaten momentum in the division carry him to victory? Tune in October 11 to find out.  

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.

## Matchup and Individual Fighter Profiles

### Matchup Overview
This bantamweight clash pits the ascending **Montel Jackson** (16-2-0) against former flyweight kingpin **Deiveson Figueiredo** (24-5-1). Jackson enters with unbeaten momentum in his last five outings, while Figueiredo looks to rediscover the form that carried him to two UFC titles. At 33 vs. 37 years old and fighting on Figueiredo’s home soil in Rio de Janeiro, this bout promises a fascinating blend of speed, power, grappling and championship pedigree.

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### Montel Jackson Profile

**Age:** 33  
**Country:** United States  
**Fighting Style:** MMA striker with wrestling base  
**Height / Reach:** 70" / 75.5"  
**Stance:** Orthodox  

#### Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win vs. Daniel Marcos (Unanimous Decision, UFC Vegas 80)  
- Win vs. Damon Blackshear (KO/TKO, Round 1 – 0:18)  
- Win vs. Rani Yahya (KO/TKO, Round 1 – 3:42)  
- Win vs. Julio Arce (Unanimous Decision, Round 3 – 5:00)  
- Win vs. JP Buys (Unanimous Decision, Round 3 – 5:00)  

Jackson has reeled off five straight victories—three finishes and two clear decisions—showcasing his evolution into a top-15 bantamweight threat.

#### Strengths
- **Takedown Defense (68%)**: Jackson stuffs over two-thirds of opponents’ takedown attempts, forcing foes into striking exchanges.  
- **Significant Strike Defense (63%)**: He absorbs less than 40% of significant strikes thrown, displaying slick head movement and footwork.  
- **Finishing Rate**: Eight career knockouts, including back-to-back first-round KOs in 2024 and 2023, proving his one-punch power.  
- **Reach Advantage**: A 7.5” reach edge over Figueiredo allows him to control distance with jabs and front kicks.

#### Weaknesses
- **Submission Defense**: While rarely taken down, Jackson’s ground game remains untested against elite grapplers; he holds zero career submission wins.  
- **Cardio in Later Rounds**: With an average fight time of 10:24, he may gas if pushed into deep waters against a relentless wrestler.  

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### Deiveson Figueiredo Profile

**Age:** 37  
**Country:** Brazil  
**Fighting Style:** Boxing / Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu  
**Height / Reach:** 65" / 68"  
**Stance:** Southpaw  

#### Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Loss vs. Cory Sandhagen (KO/TKO, Round 2 – 4:08)  
- Loss vs. Petr Yan (Unanimous Decision, Round 5 – 5:00)  
- Win vs. Marlon Vera (Unanimous Decision, Round 3 – 5:00)  
- Win vs. Cody Garbrandt (Submission, Round 2 – 4:02)  
- Win vs. Rob Font (Unanimous Decision, Round 3 – 5:00)  

Despite back-to-back setbacks in 2025, Figueiredo remains battle-tested, having rebounded from his losses to secure victories over top contenders.

#### Strengths
- **Finishing Diversity**: Nine knockouts and nine submissions in 24 wins highlight his versatile firepower and slick BJJ transitions.  
- **Pressure Boxing**: A 54% significant strike accuracy and high output overwhelm opponents, particularly in tight spaces.  
- **Experience & Championship Pedigree**: Former two-time UFC flyweight champ with over 30 UFC fights; thrives under pressure.  

#### Weaknesses
- **Significant Strike Defense (49%)**: Figueiredo absorbs over half of the strikes aimed at him, leaving openings for counter-punchers.  
- **Takedown Accuracy (35%)** & **Defense (58%)**: Against elite wrestlers, he has struggled to secure or defend takedowns at a high rate.  
- **Age & Durability**: At 37, his chin and gas tank have shown cracks—evidenced by the KO loss to Sandhagen and decision defeat to Yan.

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This fight sets up a classic striker vs. grappler narrative: Jackson’s precision and takedown defense against Figueiredo’s relentless pressure and submission threats. Expect Jackson to use range and timing early, while Figueiredo looks to cut the cage and force scrambles where he can capitalize. Whichever fighter imposes his style more effectively will emerge victorious in this pivotal bantamweight showdown.```

## Betting Odds and Line Movement

### Current Betting Odds
As of the latest update, the consensus moneyline at **BetOnline.ag** shows:

- **Montel Jackson**: –275 (favorite)  
- **Deiveson Figueiredo**: +235 (underdog)  

Jackson is drawing heavy action with –275 odds, meaning you must wager $275 to win $100. Figueiredo, meanwhile, offers an attractive +235 payout—staking $100 to win $235—reflecting bettors’ perception of a significant talent gap in Jackson’s favor.

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### Odds History & Line Movement
Tracking the line over the past 48 hours reveals subtle but telling swings:

- **Montel Jackson**  
  • Sept. 28: –276  
  • Sept. 29 (midnight): –300  
  • Sept. 29 (current): –275  

- **Deiveson Figueiredo**  
  • Sept. 28: +236  
  • Sept. 29 (midnight): +250  
  • Sept. 29 (current): +235  

Jackson’s price briefly drifted to –300 before softening back to –275, suggesting a flurry of late bets on Figueiredo or strategic odds shading by the book. Figueiredo’s line peaked at +250—an indication of underdog support—then tightened slightly as Jackson backers moved in. These swings, while modest, underscore a closely watched bout with money shifting as sharp bettors and recreational players weigh in.

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### Implied Probabilities & Potential Payouts
Based on current lines, implied win probabilities land approximately at:

- **Montel Jackson**: ~73% chance to win  
- **Deiveson Figueiredo**: ~30% chance to win  

If you placed a **$1,000** wager today:

- On **Jackson** at –275 → Your payout would be **$1,363.64** (your $1,000 stake plus $363.64 profit).  
- On **Figueiredo** at +235 → Your payout would be **$3,350.00** (your $1,000 stake plus $2,350 profit).  

These figures illustrate the classic favorite vs. underdog dynamic: a smaller payout for Jackson’s perceived high probability, and a larger upside for backing Figueiredo’s upset potential.

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### Recommended Sportsbook
While multiple sportsbooks may post competing lines, **BetOnline.ag** currently offers the most favorable odds on both fighters for this matchup. Their early releases and tight spreads have attracted significant handle, making them the go-to option for bettors seeking depth of market and reliable line movement tracking. Be sure to compare with your local or online books to lock in the best price before the odds shift again as fight night approaches.

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This odds analysis highlights the gulf between Jackson’s status as a well-backed favorite and Figueiredo’s rollicking upside as a live underdog. Whether you’re chasing the safer play on Jackson or the big payday backing Figueiredo, understanding these numbers—and where they can move—will be critical to making an informed wager.