Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter fight analysis
Fight Overview
The flyweight clash between Jafel Filho and Clayton Carpenter is set to ignite the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot on Saturday, October 11, 2025, live from the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The bout is slated to begin at 8:00 PM UTC, roughly coinciding with the early evening in Rio and mid-afternoon on the U.S. East Coast. As fight fans and bettors tune in, all eyes will be on this pivotal matchup that not only showcases two rising talents in the 125-pound division but also offers a tantalizing stylistic showdown.
Venue & Timing
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot
- Venue: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025
- Preliminary card kickoff at 8:00 PM UTC
- Broadcast: Available via ESPN+ in the U.S. and UFC Fight Pass internationally
The Fighters at a Glance
Jafel Filho (Red Corner)
- Record: 16-4-0
- Age: 32
- Fighting Style: Grappler
- UFC Debut: March 18, 2023
- Key Stats:
- 10 of 16 wins by submission
- First-round finishes: 8
- Sig. Strike Accuracy: 42%
- Takedown Defense: 67%
- Avg. Fight Time: 9:47
Clayton Carpenter (Blue Corner)
- Record: 8-1-0
- Age: 28
- Fighting Style: Well-rounded with a strong submission pedigree
- UFC Debut: February 18, 2023
- Key Stats:
- 4 of 8 wins by submission
- First-round finishes: 4
- Sig. Strike Accuracy: 55%
- Takedown Defense: 43%
- Avg. Fight Time: 10:06
Betting Odds & Market Position
According to BetOnline.ag, Jafel Filho enters as a slight favorite at -123 (American odds), while Clayton Carpenter is the underdog at +103. These lines reflect a fairly tight betting market, suggesting that oddsmakers see this matchup as competitive. Those backing Filho appear confident in his grappling acumen and ability to control the pace, whereas bettors on Carpenter are banking on his higher striking accuracy and youthful momentum.
Key Storylines
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Experience vs. Momentum
- Filho brings a deeper UFC resume, facing top contenders and showcasing a well-rounded skill set.
- Carpenter, riding an 8-1 record, boasts finishing prowess and is hungry to break into the flyweight hierarchy.
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Grappling Exchange
- Filho’s 67% takedown defense will be tested against Carpenter’s 46% takedown accuracy.
- The wrestler in Carpenter may look to dictate where the fight takes place, but the Brazilian’s groundcraft cannot be underestimated.
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Striking Battles
- Carpenter’s 55% significant strike accuracy versus Filho’s 42% paints a picture of a technical stand-up affair.
- Can Filho close distance safely to initiate his grappling, or will Carpenter keep the fight at range and pepper with takedown attempts?
With both fighters eager to climb the flyweight ladder, the Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter matchup promises fireworks, strategic depth, and potential highlight-reel finishes. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, this bout on October 11 offers an intriguing blend of technique, will, and championship aspirations.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.
Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles
Jafel Filho Profile
Background
- Age: 32
- Country: Brazil (Sento Sé)
- Fighting Style: Grappler
- UFC Debut: Mar. 18, 2023
Jafel Filho enters this flyweight showdown as a seasoned submission artist with a 16-4-0 pro record. The Brazilian’s foundation lies in elite jiu-jitsu—he’s finished 10 opponents by submission and boasts eight first-round stoppages. His average fight time of 9:47 underlines a tendency to pursue early takedowns and ground control.
Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)
- May 31, 2025: Loss vs Allan Nascimento (Decision – Unanimous)
- Mar. 16, 2024: Win vs Ode Osbourne (Submission, R1 – 4:27)
- Jul. 22, 2023: Win vs Daniel Barez (Submission, R1 – 3:26)
- Mar. 18, 2023: Loss vs Muhammad Mokaev (Submission, R3 – 4:32)
Filho is 2-2 in his last four outings, alternating between dominant grappling showcases and narrow defeats to high-level opponents. His decision loss to Nascimento exposed some stand-up gaps, while his submission wins reaffirm his ground prowess.
Strengths
- Takedown Defense (67%): Elite ability to resist opponents’ wrestling entries.
- Submission Offense: 10 of 16 career wins by choke or joint lock.
- First-Round Finishes (8): Lethal early attack, especially on the mat.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy (42%): Below-average significant strike conversion, struggles to land consistently at range.
- Striking Defense (48%): Vulnerable to opponents’ combinations before closing distance.
- Takedown Accuracy (42%): Can be thwarted by strong sprawl-and-brawl fighters.
Clayton Carpenter Profile
Background
- Age: 28
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Well-rounded with a strong submission pedigree
- UFC Debut: Feb. 18, 2023
Clayton Carpenter arrives with an 8-1-0 record and a balanced offensive toolkit. He combines crisp striking—landing significant strikes at 55% accuracy—with a heavy submission arsenal (four career subs). His four first-round finishes highlight an aggressive approach in early exchanges.
Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)
- Jan. 18, 2025: Loss vs Tagir Ulanbekov (Decision – Unanimous)
- Oct. 12, 2024: Win vs Lucas Rocha (Submission, R2 – 2:12)
- Feb. 18, 2023: Win vs Juancamilo Ronderos (Submission, R1 – 3:13)
Carpenter is 2-1 in UFC action, rebounding from a close decision loss to Ulanbekov with back-to-back submission victories. He demonstrates finishing instincts but faces questions about consistency against top-tier grapplers.
Strengths
- Significant Strike Accuracy (55%): Among the division’s most efficient stand-up fighters.
- Takedown Accuracy (46%): Capable of mixing wrestling entries to keep opponents guessing.
- Finishing Versatility: Two KOs and four subs indicate danger both standing and on the ground.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense (43%): Susceptible to powerful wrestlers who can dictate where the fight takes place.
- Striking Defense (55%): Allows a high volume of incoming strikes, leading to potential damage accumulation.
- Average Fight Time (10:06): Tends to let fights extend beyond early rounds, where opponent adjustments can turn the tide.
This stylistic clash pits Filho’s iron-clad grappling and takedown defense against Carpenter’s pinpoint striking and submission creativity. Each fighter’s recent form and statistical profile reveal critical vulnerabilities—striking gaps for Filho and takedown defense holes for Carpenter—that will shape strategy and, ultimately, the outcome in Rio de Janeiro.
Betting Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds Overview
- Favorite: Jafel Filho (-123)
- Underdog: Clayton Carpenter (+103)
- Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag
As of October 1, 2025, BetOnline.ag lists Filho as a moderate favorite at -123 in American odds, meaning a $123 wager would net you $100 of profit. Carpenter, by contrast, sits just on the plus side at +103, implying a $100 bet returns $103 in profit. The relatively narrow gap—just 226 points in the American format—signals that oddsmakers view this flyweight clash as highly competitive, with bettors finding value on both sides of the ledger.
Line Movement & Historical Swings
Tracking the line since late September reveals meaningful shifts driven by bettor action:
Jafel Filho (– Odds over time)
• Sept. 30, 11:59 AM UTC: –170
• Sept. 30, 2:20 PM UTC: –130
• Sept. 30, 3:56 PM UTC: –125
• Oct. 1, 8:29 AM UTC: –123
Clayton Carpenter (– Odds over time)
• Sept. 30, 11:59 AM UTC: +145
• Sept. 30, 2:20 PM UTC: +110
• Sept. 30, 3:56 PM UTC: +105
• Oct. 1, 8:29 AM UTC: +103
Key takeaways:
- Filho’s line shortened dramatically from –170 to –123, indicating strong backing on Clayton Carpenter as bettors sought the dog’s upside.
- Carpenter’s line improved from +145 to +103, reflecting a surge of money on him and even money being shifted off Filho.
- The biggest swing came in the first hours after the lines opened, showing early confidence in Carpenter’s chances and value seekers pouncing on a soft favorite.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On
Based on current odds liquidity and sharp line updates, BetOnline.ag remains the top choice for this fight. It offers the tightest spreads on both fighters and a well-established platform with competitive juice.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you wager $1,000 at today’s lines:
-
On Jafel Filho at –123:
• Profit: $813
• Total Return: $1,813
• Implied Win Probability: ~56% -
On Clayton Carpenter at +103:
• Profit: $1,030
• Total Return: $2,030
• Implied Win Probability: ~49%
These figures illustrate that a winning bet on Carpenter pays out slightly more than doubling your money, while the safer favorite in Filho returns a more modest profit. Both offers are attractive, but the quick line movement suggests informed bettors are hammering Carpenter and pushing Filho’s price toward value territory.
By understanding the current odds, line movement, and payout scenarios, you can tailor your wager to align with both your risk tolerance and assessment of each fighter’s strengths. Whether you lean into Filho’s grappling pedigree or Carpenter’s momentum and striking efficiency, make sure you’re getting the best available line—right now, that’s at BetOnline.ag.
AI Pick: Jafel Filho
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Jafel Filho, or see all the AI picks for Oliveira vs Gamrot. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
