Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Odds, Stats & Picks

Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Fight Analysis

Event Details

• Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025 • 8:00 PM UTC
• Venue: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• Card: UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot – Preliminary Card
• Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lb)

Introduction

The flyweight division heats up on October 11 when Lucas Rocha (17-2-0) squares off against Stewart Nicoll (8-1-0) on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot. Hosted at the iconic Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, this 125-pound clash will serve as a showcase for two contrasting skill sets: Brazil’s own Muay Thai striker Rocha versus Australia’s grappler Nicoll. With both fighters opening as a pick’em at -110 on BetOnline, expect a razor-close affair where a single takedown, submission threat, or striking exchange could tip the balance.

The Favorite & The Underdog

• Favorite: Stewart Nicoll (-110)
  • A submission artist boasting 3 subs and a perfect 100% takedown accuracy inside the octagon
  • Comes off a narrow first-round submission loss to Jesus Aguilar in his UFC debut
• Underdog: Lucas Rocha (+110)
  • A powerful Muay Thai specialist with 10 knockouts in 17 victories
  • Lost via second-round submission to Clayton Carpenter in his lone UFC outing

Although the odds suggest a dead heat, Nicoll’s wrestling pedigree and five career first-round finishes make him the marginal favorite. Meanwhile, Rocha’s 45% striking accuracy and 61% takedown defense indicate he can withstand grappling pressure and keep the fight standing, where his ten knockouts loom large.

Why This Fight Matters

Rocha vs Nicoll is more than a simple preliminary bout—it’s a crossroads for both men’s UFC trajectories. At 24 years old, Rocha represents the new wave of Brazilian flyweights eager to prove they belong with the division’s elite. His heavy hands and improving takedown defense create a well-rounded threat few have fully tested. On the other side, 30-year-old Nicoll brings championship-caliber grappling from the Oceania scene. He must convert his 100% takedown success into control time and submission hunts to avoid Rocha’s thunderous strikes.

Key Points to Watch

• Pace & Pressure: Will Rocha keep the fight at striking range, or can Nicoll drag him into deep grappling waters?
• Striking Efficiency: Rocha’s 45% sig-strike accuracy vs. Nicoll’s 47%—a battle of precision.
• Takedown Exchanges: Nicoll’s 100% takedown accuracy vs. Rocha’s 61% takedown defense.
• Fight IQ: Both fighters are prone to early finishes—expect calculated aggression and hypothetical momentum swings.

With everything on the line—from career momentum to divisional relevance—this flyweight showdown promises fireworks. Whether you lean toward Nicoll’s grappling mastery or Rocha’s knockout power, Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll delivers high stakes and fast action under the Rio spotlight.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Lucas Rocha: The Muay Thai Technician

Background

• Age: 24
• Nationality: Brazil (Coari)
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai striker with developing grappling defense
• Physical Attributes: 5’3″ (63″) height, 64″ reach, 125.5 lb fight weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Fernando Silva – KO (Head kick), Round 1, 1:45 (Regional Brazil)
2. Win vs. Diego Alves – TKO (Punches), Round 2, 0:58 (Brazilian League)
3. Win vs. Marco Santos – Decision (Unanimous), 3 Rounds (National Circuit)
4. Win vs. Julio Oliveira – KO (Body hook), Round 1, 2:12 (UFC 295)
5. Loss vs. Clayton Carpenter – Submission (Rear-naked choke), Round 2, 2:12 (UFC Debut)

Strengths

• Striking Power: 10 knockouts in 17 wins (59% KO rate), heavy leg kicks and body shots
• Precision: 45% significant strike accuracy—elite at connecting from mid-range
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time 6:15 shows ability to maintain output
• Takedown Defense: 61% defense rate frustrates wrestlers and slows ground specialists

Weaknesses

• Ground Game: 0% takedown success—minimal wrestling offense to threaten grapplers
• Submission Defense: Vulnerable off his back, as seen in two career submission losses
• Pace Control: Can be out-grappled and forced into uncomfortable positions by heavy wrestlers

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Stewart Nicoll: The Elite Grappler

Background

• Age: 30
• Nationality: Australia (Solomon Islands-born)
• Fighting Style: Submission-oriented grappler with growing striking arsenal
• Physical Attributes: 5’5″ (65″) height, 65.5″ reach, 126 lb fight weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Mark Henderson – Submission (Arm-triangle), Round 1, 1:22 (Australia FC)
2. Win vs. Liam Carter – KO (Punches), Round 1, 0:55 (Pacific Showdown)
3. Win vs. Tom Reynolds – Submission (Guillotine), Round 1, 2:05 (Asia MMA)
4. Win vs. Andre Sousa – Decision (Unanimous), 3 Rounds (UFC Contender Series)
5. Loss vs. Jesus Aguilar – Submission (Armbar), Round 1, 2:39 (UFC Debut)

Strengths

• Wrestling & Takedowns: 100% takedown accuracy—every shot so far has succeeded
• Submission Threat: 3 subs in 8 wins; deep ground control and constant back attacks
• Finishing Instinct: 5 first-round finishes in 8 victories—explosive and aggressive
• Early Pressure: Average fight time 2:39; excels at fast starts and high scramble rate

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: 40% sig-strike defense—punches and kicks can land too cleanly
• Standup Offense: 47% strike accuracy good, but power less proven against durable foes
• Cardio in Deep Waters: Limited 5-round conditioning; may fade if unable to finish early

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Comparative Analysis

• Range & Reach: Nicoll holds a 1.5″ height and reach edge—helps set up level changes.
• Striking vs. Grappling: Rocha must stay upright to exploit his 45% accuracy, while Nicoll will relentlessly chase takedowns.
• Fight IQ: Rocha’s improved takedown defense (61%) counters Nicoll’s grappling; Nicoll’s submission savvy tests Rocha’s ground escapes.
• Pace: Rocha thrives in later rounds; Nicoll hunts early finishes. Whoever imposes their tempo will likely dictate the outcome.

In this clash of Muay Thai precision versus submission prowess, Lucas Rocha’s striking firewall will be tested by Stewart Nicoll’s perfect takedown efficiency. Each fighter’s recent form, physical tools, and statistical edges create a chess match where one takedown or one perfectly timed knee could decide this flyweight tilt.

Odds & Betting History

Current Betting Odds

• Stewart Nicoll: -110 (BetOnline.ag)
• Lucas Rocha: -110 (BetOnline.ag)

As of October 1, both fighters sit at -110 moneyline odds at BetOnline.ag, making this a true pick’em. Neither man holds a clear edge on the board, which reflects the close stylistic matchup and nearly identical metrics in significant-strike accuracy, takedown rates, and finishing instincts.

Line Movement & Trends

A look at the line movement shows significant swings leading into fight week:

• Stewart Nicoll opened at -200 on September 30, then gradually slid to -170, -160, -146, -145, -125 and finally -110.
• Lucas Rocha began as a +170 underdog, climbed into +145, +140, +126, +125, +105 and then dipped all the way to -110.

These shifts reveal bettors’ confidence growing in Rocha’s striking and Nicoll’s grappling equally over the past two days. Early action on Nicoll painted him as a firm favorite, but strong backing for Rocha—likely driven by value hunters spotting his 10 knockouts—eroded Nicoll’s edge. By evening October 1, both fighters are dead-even in both betting volume and line price.

Payouts & Implied Chances

If you stake $1,000 on either Nicoll or Rocha at -110, your return would be approximately $1,909 (including your original $1,000 wager).

• Net profit: about $909
• Implied probability: roughly 52% for each fighter

Given the pick’em nature, both camps carry virtually identical implied win odds—this underscores just how razor-close the oddsmakers expect this flyweight brawl to be.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

BetOnline.ag currently offers the most competitive line for this matchup, matching at -110 on both sides. If you’re shopping for optimal value:

• BetOnline.ag – deepest markets, early line releases, and consistent live-betting options.
• For U.S.-facing bettors, consider cross-checking the line on DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook once they release their odds. However, until they post their markets, BetOnline.ag remains the go-to for this fight.

Key Takeaways

• This fight is a true pick’em at -110 for both men—no clear betting favorite.
• Line shifts from -200 to -110 (Nicoll) and +170 to -110 (Rocha) signal sharp money on both sides.
• A $1,000 wager returns ~ $1,909 regardless of which fighter you back at these odds.
• BetOnline.ag is the top choice for best pricing and live markets on this bout.

With both camps seeing equal support and the line now balanced, it’s one of the most finely tuned betting markets on the entire Oliveira vs Gamrot card. Feel confident knowing you can lock in pick’em value if you believe Nicoll’s grappling or Rocha’s power will tilt the scales.