Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz fight analysis
Event Details
Mark your calendars: Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz will clash on Saturday, October 11, 2025, as part of the Preliminary Card at UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot. The action kicks off from Rio de Janeiro’s renowned Farmasi Arena, with the first bouts slated to begin at 8:00 PM local time (BRT). This Women’s Strawweight showdown is one of several key fights setting the tone for what promises to be an electrifying night of mixed martial arts in Brazil’s host city.
Fighters to Watch
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Julia Polastri (13–5–0): The 27-year-old Brazilian striker made her UFC debut less than two years ago and has already demonstrated a dynamic offensive arsenal. Boasting a significant striking accuracy of 55% and a takedown success rate of 80%, Polastri’s blend of precision striking and grappling prowess positions her as a formidable threat on home soil. She stands 5′2″ with a 63.5″ reach and enters this matchup riding alternating outcomes in her last three outings.
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16–9–0): The 39-year-old Polish veteran is a former title challenger whose seasoned resume includes 28 professional fights. Kowalkiewicz brings a well-rounded game, featuring a 43% striking accuracy and 23% takedown accuracy, backed by a 58% takedown defense. Despite recent setbacks—a pair of unanimous decision losses in 2024—her grit, cardio, and championship-caliber experience make her a dangerous underdog against any opponent.
Betting Odds & Key Matchup Narrative
At the time of writing, BetOnline.ag lists Polastri as the clear favorite at –275 (American odds), while Kowalkiewicz sits in the underdog role at +235. These lines reflect both Polastri’s recent momentum and home-field advantage, contrasted with Kowalkiewicz’s veteran savvy but recent inconsistency.
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Why Polastri is the favorite:
• Superior striking output (averaging 13.49 minutes per fight) and higher significant strike accuracy (55% vs. 43%)
• Elite takedown conversion (80%) that can neutralize Kowalkiewicz’s striking rhythm
• Youthful gas tank and aggressive style in front of a passionate Brazilian crowd -
Why Kowalkiewicz is a live dog:
• Extensive UFC pedigree, including a title fight in 2018
• Strong takedown defense (75%) that may thwart Polastri’s ground advances
• Proven durability and experience adjusting to in-fight adversity
What’s at Stake
For Polastri, a win here would stake her claim among the strawweight division’s rising young talents and keep her on pace for a potential top-15 ranking. Kowalkiewicz, meanwhile, seeks to revitalize her career, snap a two-fight skid, and remind fans why she was once on the cusp of championship gold.
As the prelims unfold in Rio’s electric atmosphere, this battle between the hungry Brazilian striker and the battle-tested Polish veteran sets the stage for a compelling stylistic contrast. Whether you back the favorites or chase the value on the dog, this is one you won’t want to miss. Stay tuned for our full breakdown of tactics, prop plays, and pick scenarios in the upcoming fight preview!
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Oliveira vs Gamrot can be found on the Oliveira vs Gamrot event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Julia Polastri Profile
Background & Fighting Style
- Age: 27
- Country: Brazil (Duque de Caxias)
- Fighting Style: Pure striker with a heavy emphasis on precision striking and chain punches.
- Physical Attributes: 5’2″ (62″) height, 63.5″ arm reach, 116 lb walking weight.
- UFC Debut: June 15, 2024
Polastri burst onto the UFC scene last year with a string of eye-catching knockouts. She combines crisp boxing with opportunistic wrestling—her 80% takedown accuracy is among the best in the strawweight division, allowing her to mix striking and grappling at will.
Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)
- Mar. 29, 2025 vs. Loopy Godinez – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
A high-pace striking battle that saw Polastri out-landed in the clinch and on the fence. - Oct. 12, 2024 vs. Cory McKenna – Win (Decision Split)
Tactical striking display; landed 170 significant strikes and defended multiple takedown attempts. - Jun. 15, 2024 vs. Josefine Knutsson – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
Knutsson nullified Julia’s wrestling early, forcing her to press and expend energy at range.
Record in UFC: 1–2. Polastri has demonstrated dynamic offense but has yet to string together back-to-back wins.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Elite Takedown Conversion (80%) – Puts fighters on their back and controls the pace.
- Striking Accuracy (55%) – Connects on over half of her significant strikes, good power (4 KOs).
- Youth & Gas Tank – Maintains output deep into the third round, ideal for high-pace engagements.
Weaknesses:
- Takedown Defense (58%) – Vulnerable to heavy wrestlers; has been stuffed but not decisively dominated.
- Experience Gap – Only three UFC fights; sometimes overextends in scramble situations.
- Choke Defense – Has been dangerous on the mat but could be susceptible to slick submission artists.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Profile
Background & Fighting Style
- Age: 39
- Country: Poland (Łódź)
- Fighting Style: All-around MMA technician—solid boxing fundamentals, high pressure, excellent cardio.
- Physical Attributes: 5’3″ (63″) height, 64″ arm reach, 115.5 lb walking weight.
- UFC Debut: Dec. 19, 2015
Kowalkiewicz is a UFC veteran who challenged for the strawweight title in 2018. She fights at a relentless pace, uses volume striking to overwhelm opponents, and boasts a 75% takedown defense that keeps her standing.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Nov. 9, 2024 vs. Denise Gomes – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
- May 4, 2024 vs. Iasmin Lucindo – Loss (Decision Unanimous)
- Oct. 7, 2023 vs. Diana Belbita – Win (Decision Unanimous)
- May 20, 2023 vs. Vanessa Demopoulos – Win (Decision Unanimous)
- Nov. 12, 2022 vs. Silvana Juarez – Win (Decision Unanimous)
After three straight victories (all decisions), Kowalkiewicz hit turbulence in 2024, dropping back-to-back outings but never showing signs of quitting mid-fight.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Takedown Defense (75%) – Rarely taken down, forces opponents to trade.
- Durability & Chin – Only one KO suffered in 25 professional bouts; takes punishment well.
- Ring IQ & Experience – Knows how to adapt mid-fight, leverage positional control, and close distance.
Weaknesses:
- Striking Accuracy (43%) – Less efficient; throws high volume but eats counters.
- Takedown Offense (23%) – Struggles to bring opponents to the mat, limits her ground game.
- Age & Wear – At 39, recovery between rounds and output pace can dip late.
Bottom Line: Julia Polastri brings youth, power, and takedown prowess, while Karolina Kowalkiewicz counters with veteran savvy, gas mileage, and iron chin. This clash of styles—precision striking and wrestling versus relentless pressure and durability—sets up a compelling chess match on the prelims of UFC Fight Night in Rio.
Odds Breakdown and Betting Insights
Current Betting Odds
- Julia Polastri: –275 (BetOnline.ag)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +235 (BetOnline.ag)
At –275, Polastri is the clear favorite, requiring a $275 wager to win $100. Kowalkiewicz sits in the underdog role at +235, meaning a $100 bet returns $235 in profit. The line gap of 510 points (–275 vs. +235) underscores the market’s confidence in Polastri’s wrestling-heavy style and home-cage advantage in Rio de Janeiro.
Line Movement & Trends
A look at the odds history from BetOnline.ag reveals significant movement over the past 24 hours:
- September 28, 15:09 UTC: Polastri opened at –335, Kowalkiewicz at +275
- September 28, 17:24 UTC: Polastri ticked to –310, Kowalkiewicz to +260
- September 29, 04:49 UTC: Polastri settled at –275, Kowalkiewicz at +235
These shifts indicate smart money coming in on Kowalkiewicz—her line has moved 40 points in her favor (+275 to +235), while Polastri has shortened by 60 points (–335 to –275). The compression suggests bettors are finding value on the Polish veteran, perhaps banking on her experience and cardio to neutralize Polastri’s takedowns.
Payout Scenarios ($1,000 Stakes)
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If you bet $1,000 on Polastri at –275:
• Profit of approximately $364
• Total return of $1,364 (your $1,000 stake + $364 winnings) -
If you bet $1,000 on Kowalkiewicz at +235:
• Profit of $2,350
• Total return of $3,350 (your $1,000 stake + $2,350 winnings)
The attractive upside on Kowalkiewicz underscores why underdog bettors are key drivers of recent line moves.
Implied Probabilities
- Polastri (–275): Roughly a 73% chance to win
- Kowalkiewicz (+235): Roughly a 30% chance to win
These figures reflect the sportsbooks’ built-in margin, but they still give a clear picture: Polastri enters as the strong favorite, while Kowalkiewicz offers the higher-risk, higher-reward play.
Best Sportsbook Recommendation
- BetOnline.ag emerges as the top choice for this fight, offering the most competitive lines, early odds history, and reliable payouts.
- Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks—if you can find even a few points better on Kowalkiewicz, your potential payout increases significantly.
Key Takeaway:
Polastri’s odds have shortened from –335 to –275, while Kowalkiewicz’s have moved from +275 to +235. If you believe the veteran’s cardio and resilience will prevail, a $1,000 wager on Kowalkiewicz pays out over $3,300. Conversely, conservative bettors siding with the rising Brazilian prospect lock in a near-guaranteed return of $1,364 on the same stake. Keep an eye on any further line movement leading right up to fight night—momentum could swing again as late money pours in.
AI Pick: Julia Polastri
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Julia Polastri, or see all the AI picks for Oliveira vs Gamrot. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
