Luciano vs Oliveira UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira fight analysis

Get ready for an electrifying women’s strawweight showdown as Stephanie Luciano takes on Ravena Oliveira on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen. This bout is slated to begin on Saturday, October 18, 2025 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, and promises plenty of action before the main card kicks off.

Fight Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Allen
• Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
• Start Time (Preliminary Card): 8:00 PM PT
• Venue: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC, Canada
• Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lb)

Where to Watch

Fans can catch this preliminary card live on ESPN+ (U.S.) and UFC Fight Pass (international), with undercard action beginning at 8:00 PM PT. Don’t miss the early fireworks as Luciano and Oliveira look to set the tone for the night.

Betting Odds and Props

Betting markets have already opened, and oddsmakers are firmly in favor of the Brazilian Muay Thai specialist:

• Stephanie Luciano (Favorite): –325 (BetOnline.ag)
• Ravena Oliveira (Underdog): +275 (BetOnline.ag)

With Luciano opening as a sizable favorite, bettors expecting a tactical, grinding performance can find value backing Oliveira’s underdog run.

Fighters at a Glance

| Fighter | Record | Style | UFC Debut | Key Stats | |---------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------------|----------------------------------| | Stephanie Luciano | 6–2–1 | Muay Thai | Mar. 23, 2024 | Str. Acc. 42% | Str. Def. 61% | TD Def. 81% | | Ravena Oliveira | 7–2–1 | Striker | Oct. 14, 2023 | Str. Acc. 48% | Str. Def. 49% | TD Acc. 67% |

• Luciano (25 years old) stands 66 inches tall with a 65.5-inch reach. Her UFC tenure has been marked by a tough grappling base, stellar takedown defense (81%), and the cardio to grind out decisions.
• Oliveira (28 years old) counters with four first-round finishes on her resume, knockout power (4 KOs), and impressive takedown accuracy (67%) when she chooses to mix it up on the mat.

What’s at Stake

For Stephanie Luciano, a win here solidifies her inside-the-top-15 credentials and inches her closer to a potential clash with established strawweights like Luana Pinheiro or Polyana Viana. A strong showing—ideally by stoppage—could vault the 25-year-old into the division’s conversation as a dark-horse contender.

Meanwhile, Ravena Oliveira arrives 7–2–1 overall but is making her sophomore UFC appearance. The Brazilian striker seeks to prove that her debut loss to Tainara Lisboa was nothing more than a learning experience. A victory over a rising name like Luciano would dramatically shift Oliveira’s trajectory and earn her serious respect among fans and pundits alike.

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Whether you’re backing the heavy favorite or chasing a +275 payday on the underdog, this bout offers a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. Stay glued to ESPN+ on October 18th—Luciano vs Oliveira promises to be an early highlight on a must-watch night in Vancouver.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for de Ridder vs Allen can be found on the de Ridder vs Allen event page.

Matchup Breakdown: Individual Fighter Profiles

Stephanie Luciano: The Muay Thai Grinder

Age: 25 • Country: Brazil • Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Stephanie Luciano brings a classic Muay Thai base to the women’s strawweight division. Standing 66 inches tall with a 65.5-inch reach, Luciano relies on her striking volume, clinch work, and smothering takedown defense to outpoint opponents.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 15, 2025: Loss vs. Sam Hughes (Decision – Split)
• Aug. 10, 2024: Win vs. Talita Alencar (Decision – Unanimous)
• Prior to UFC: Compiled a 4-fight finishing streak on regional cards (3 KOs, 1 submission)
• Overall UFC record: 1-1

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (81%): Luciano is exceptionally difficult to wrestle down, stuffing the majority of takedown attempts and forcing foes to stand and exchange.
• Durability & Cardio: Averaging a full 15 minutes per bout, she grinds out decisions and rarely fades in the championship rounds.
• Clinching & Elbows: Her Muay Thai pedigree shows in tight clinch elbows and knees, wearing opponents down over time.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (42%): Below-average connect rate forces her to throw in volume, which can leave her open to counters.
• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages in UFC competition suggests a limited one-punch knockout threat at this level.
• Decision-Heavy Résumé: All UFC fights have gone the distance, inviting those with finishing power to test her chin.

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Ravena Oliveira: The Explosive Finisher

Age: 28 • Country: Brazil • Fighting Style: Striker

Ravena Oliveira is an aggressive stand-up artist with four first-round finishes on her ledger. At 65 inches tall and carrying 133 pounds into the Octagon, she blends power punching with opportunistic wrestling—evidenced by her 67% takedown accuracy.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Oct. 14, 2023: Loss vs. Tainara Lisboa (Decision – Unanimous) [UFC Debut]
• Prior to UFC: 4 straight first-round finishes on the Brazilian regional scene (3 KOs, 1 submission)
• Overall UFC record: 0-1

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (48%): Oliveira lands nearly half of her significant strikes, showcasing crisp combinations and power behind each punch.
• Finishing Instincts: Four first-round stoppages highlight her ability to end fights early if opponents hesitate.
• Takedown Offense (67%): Not just a brawler—she mixes in timely double-leg and single-leg takedowns to keep opponents guessing.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (49%): Allows opponents to land nearly as many significant strikes as she absorbs, putting her chin on the line.
• UFC Inexperience: One Octagon fight leaves Oliveira untested against elite gameplans and high-level pace.
• Cardio Questions: All career stoppages came early; she has yet to prove same effectiveness deep into three rounds.

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Head-to-Head Implications
Luciano’s iron-clad takedown defense and clinch control will be paramount to neutralize Oliveira’s power. Conversely, Oliveira must land heavy shots early and force Luciano into firefights—her best path to victory before the final bell. This classic striker-versus-defensive-grappler puzzle sets up a compelling chess match at strawweight.

Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update on October 7, 2025, oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have installed:

• Stephanie Luciano: –325 (Favorite)
• Ravena Oliveira: +275 (Underdog)

That 600-point swing underscores the market’s confidence in Luciano’s grappling control and durability versus Oliveira’s explosive but untested UFC résumé.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

• Opening Lines: When the market first went live, Luciano was posted around –320 and Oliveira near +265.
• Recent Shift: Over the past 24 hours, Luciano’s line has ticked slightly toward the underdog—from –320 to –325—suggesting some early money backing Oliveira. Conversely, Oliveira has drifted out from +265 to +275 as sharp bettors wager on Luciano’s game plan.
• Stability: Outside of that minor adjustment, both lines have held remarkably steady since they opened, indicating balanced action on both sides and no major news-driven swings.

Best Sportsbook to Use

Currently, BetOnline.ag offers the most competitive lines for both fighters. Their -325 on Luciano matches the sharpest book out there, while their +275 on Oliveira is the best underdog price you’ll find. If you’re shopping for value in the women’s strawweight division, BetOnline.ag is the place to get it.

$1,000 Bet Payouts

• Stephanie Luciano (–325)
  • A $1,000 wager returns approximately $1,307.69 total (profit of ~$307.69).
• Ravena Oliveira (+275)
  • A $1,000 wager returns $3,750 total (profit of $2,750).

These payouts reflect the risk/reward balance: backing the favorite yields a modest return, while the underdog offers a life-changing payday if she pulls off the upset.

Implied Probabilities

• Stephanie Luciano: Roughly a 76% chance to win
• Ravena Oliveira: About a 27% chance to score the upset

Those figures make it clear: Luciano is viewed as the heavy favorite, but Oliveira’s underdog status comes with significant upside for bettors willing to back her early-finish history.

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Whether you’re looking to lock in a small but likely profit on the chalk or chase the big payday on the plus-money underdog, understanding these lines—and where they’ve been—gives you the edge. Keep an eye on further shifts as fight night approaches, but for now, the market speaks loud and clear: Luciano is favored to grind her way to victory, while Oliveira represents a tempting long shot.