UFC 321: Jandiroba vs Dern - Strawweight Title & AI Pick

Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated Women’s Strawweight Title showdown between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern is set to close out the Main Card of UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane on October 25, 2025, at the world-class Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. While the Main Card officially kicks off at 18:00 UTC, this championship tilt is slated for approximately 03:30 UTC on October 26, giving international fight fans an epic late-night (or early-morning) start time to settle in and witness two of the division’s premier grapplers battle for supremacy.

Both competitors enter with storied submission pedigrees, but the betting markets have clearly established a pecking order. Virna Jandiroba, the reigning strawweight kingpin ranked #1 in the division and a perennial presence on FightMatrix’s pound-for-pound list, is the favorite across the board. Jandiroba boasts a sterling 22-3-0 professional mark, including 14 submission victories, and her blend of takedown accuracy (33%) and takedown defense (74%) has proven nearly impervious to the division’s best. On the other side, Mackenzie Dern—a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace herself—holds a formidable 15-5-0 ledger with 8 submission finishes, but she’s cast as the underdog in this contest, tagged with slightly longer odds at most books.

Why does Jandiroba enter as the chalk? Beyond her title-winning credentials, the 37-year-old veteran has displayed exceptional defensive grappling, stifling opponents’ top-game and dictating where the fight goes. Dern, at 32, is no stranger to high-pressure assignments—her recent wins over Amanda Ribas and Loopy Godinez showcased elite submission offense and steady cardio—but her takedown defense (25%) and occasional striking lapses against high-level wrestlers have raised questions about whether she can neutralize Jandiroba’s ground control over a full five rounds.

From a global betting perspective:

• Virna Jandiroba:

  • Bovada: –115
  • BetRivers: –121
  • BetOnline.ag: –114
  • FanDuel: –142

• Mackenzie Dern:

  • Bovada: –105
  • BetRivers: –103
  • BetOnline.ag: –106
  • FanDuel: +112

As you prep for fight night, consider the significance of styles: Jandiroba’s calculated wrestling entries and suffocating top control versus Dern’s explosive submission attempts off the back and her well-rounded clinch striking. Both athletes are equipped to finish—combined, they have 22 submission wins—but the margin for error at strawweight is razor-thin.

In this analysis, we’ll dive deeper into each fighter’s path to the title, break down the key metrics that matter, and evaluate how this clash of Brazilian grappling titans could unfold under the bright lights of Yas Island. Whether you’re wagering on the favorite or backing the submission specialist in Dern seeking redemption, our full breakdown will equip you with the insights you need to make an informed pick. Stay tuned for the complete fight breakdown below.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Aspinall vs Gane can be found on the Aspinall vs Gane event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Fighter Backgrounds

Virna Jandiroba

• Age: 37
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Wrestling
• Record: 22-3-0 (14 submissions, 1 KO)

Virna Jandiroba is a seasoned veteran hailing from the State of Bahia, Brazil. Since her UFC debut in April 2019, she’s risen to the #1 Women’s Strawweight ranking and cracked the top-10 pound-for-pound list. Jandiroba’s grappling pedigree is undeniable—14 of her 22 wins come by submission—and her effective wrestling entries and suffocating top control have earned her championship gold.

Mackenzie Dern

• Age: 32
• Country: United States (Brazilian heritage)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Record: 15-5-0 (8 submissions, 0 KOs)

Mackenzie Dern made her UFC debut in March 2018 and quickly became a fan favorite for her dynamic submission attacks. A multiple-time IBJJF world champion, Dern blends elite jiu-jitsu with improving striking, but she’s battled inconsistencies in takedown defense and wrestling exchanges.

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Recent Form

| Fighter | Last 5 Fights (Date → Result → Method) | |----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Jandiroba | April ’25 → Win vs. Xiaonan Yan (Decision) | | | July ’24 → Win vs. Amanda Lemos (Submission, R2, 4:48) | | | Mar ’24 → Win vs. Loopy Godinez (Decision) | | | May ’23 → Win vs. Marina Rodriguez (Decision) | | | May ’22 → Win vs. Angela Hill (Decision) | | Dern | Jan ’25 → Win vs. Amanda Ribas (Submission, R3, 4:56) | | | Aug ’24 → Win vs. Loopy Godinez (Decision) | | | Feb ’24 → Loss vs. Amanda Lemos (Decision) | | | Nov ’23 → Loss vs. Jessica Andrade (KO/TKO, R2, 3:15) | | | May ’23 → Win vs. Angela Hill (Decision, 5:00) |

• Jandiroba is on a 5-fight win streak, dominating both grapplers and strikers.
• Dern is 3-2 in her last five, showcasing elite submission offense but showing vulnerability against powerful strikers and wrestlers.

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Strengths and Weaknesses

Virna Jandiroba

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (74%): Elite at keeping the fight standing or regaining top position.
• Takedown Accuracy (33%): Consistently drags opponents to the mat on her terms.
• Submission Savvy: 14 submission wins; transitions fluidly from control to finish.
• Striking Defense (58%): Absorbs and avoids significant strikes, forcing opponents to chase.

Weaknesses

• Striking Output: Sig. Strike Accuracy at 39%—not a power striker; may struggle if Dern keeps it upright.
• Age and Pace: At 37, cardio in deep waters could be tested if Dern pushes a high pace.

Mackenzie Dern

Strengths

• Submission Threat: 8 finishes; excels off her back and in scrambles.
• First-Round Finishes (6): Fast starts can overwhelm opponents before they settle.
• Striking Accuracy (40%): Slightly sharper than Jandiroba; effective clinch strikes.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (25%): Vulnerable to wrestler-heavy entries, likely to be controlled by Jandiroba’s takedowns.
• Ground Control: Once on bottom, often powerless to prevent smothering top-game, evidenced by a 13:27 avg. fight time.
• Striking Defense (52%): Uptick in damage taken against heavy hitters like Andrade.

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This showdown is a classic stylistic chess match: Jandiroba’s wrestling and suffocating top control versus Dern’s submission creativity and explosive offense. Understanding these backgrounds, recent trends, and statistical edges is key to predicting who will impose their game plan and emerge victorious in Abu Dhabi.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Here’s how the money lines stack up for Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern, with each fighter’s best available price highlighted:

Virna Jandiroba (Favorite)

• Bovada: –115
• BetRivers: –121
• BetOnline.ag: –114 (Best Price)
• FanDuel: –142

Mackenzie Dern (Underdog)

• Bovada: –105
• BetRivers: –103
• BetOnline.ag: –106
• FanDuel: +112 (Best Price)

Jandiroba’s odds range from –114 to –142, marking her as the clear favorite. Dern sits on the plus side only at FanDuel, making her the underdog.

Line Movement & Swing Analysis

• Opening Lines:

  • Jandiroba debuted around –150 (Bovada) before quickly adjusting to –110 and back to –150 over the first day.
  • Dern opened at +130, swung down into –110 territory as sharp action backed her, then reverted to +112 on standout volume at major books.

• Key Swings:

  • A sharp uptick in Jandiroba money saw her line dip from –150 to –110 within 24 hours, signaling early confidence in her title defense.
  • Dern’s line fluctuated wildly—from +130 to –115 and back—reflecting mixed bettor sentiment around her grappling upside versus Jandiroba’s wrestling base.

Overall, the market has stabilized: Jandiroba around –115 (Bovada) and Dern around –105, with FanDuel offering the juiciest underdog value at +112.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Backing Jandiroba: BetOnline.ag at –114 gives you the highest potential return on the champion.
• Backing Dern: FanDuel at +112 is your go-to underdog line, maximizing payout if she pulls off the upset.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Chances

• Virna Jandiroba (–114 at BetOnline.ag):

  • A $1,000 wager returns $1,877 (your $1,000 stake plus $877 profit).
  • Implied chance: ~53%

• Mackenzie Dern (+112 at FanDuel):

  • A $1,000 wager returns $2,120 (your $1,000 stake plus $1,120 profit).
  • Implied chance: ~47%

Whether you believe Jandiroba’s wrestling dominance holds fast or think Dern’s elite jiu-jitsu can engineer an upset, understanding these odds, their evolution, and where to shop for the best line is crucial. Bet wisely and may the best grappler win on fight night!