Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev fight analysis
Fight Overview
On Saturday, November 15, 2025, fight fans will descend upon the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York, NY, for UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev. The evening’s climax is the highly anticipated Welterweight Championship bout between reigning titleholder Jack Della Maddalena and #1 contender Islam Makhachev. The main card is slated to begin at 10:00 PM ET, with this championship tilt expected as the final—and most consequential—opening to close out fight night.
This matchup marks a dramatic shift in the welterweight hierarchy. Della Maddalena, the Australian champion (ranked #8 in the PFP), will make his first title defense after a dominant five-round unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad in May 2025. Opposite him stands Islam Makhachev, the Russian sambo specialist and former lightweight kingpin who has rattled off six consecutive finishes, including spectacular submission victories over Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier. Makhachev’s meteoric rise in the 170-pound division has made him the clear betting favorite.
The Favorite: Islam Makhachev
- Betting Odds: –285 (average across top sportsbooks)
- Professional Record: 27–1–0
- Finishing Prowess: 5 KOs, 13 submissions
- Signature Strengths:
- Takedown accuracy: 54%
- Takedown defense: 91%
- Significant strike defense: 61%
Oddsmakers have installed Makhachev as a –285 favorite, valuing his elite wrestling base and consistent finishing ability. Coming off a first-round stoppage of Moicano in January, “Makhachev” has looked every bit the heir apparent in the welterweight division. His blend of precision striking and suffocating top control has neutralized elite opponents—most recently when he dismantled former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski by knockout in October 2023. In New York, he’ll aim to impose his sambo-driven ground game on a hard-hitting champion in his home turf.
The Underdog: Jack Della Maddalena
- Betting Odds: +235 (average across top sportsbooks)
- Professional Record: 18–2–0
- Finishing Prowess: 12 KOs, 2 submissions
- First-Round Finishes: 8
Despite being the defending champion, Della Maddalena enters this bout as a sizable underdog at +235. The 29-year-old Aussie has skyrocketed up the welterweight ranks with a devastating knockout arsenal, most memorably flattening Gilbert Burns in March 2024 and edging Kevin Holland via split decision in September 2023. His size (71″ height, 73″ reach) and aggressive, stand-up approach have earned him 8 first-round stoppages. However, Makhachev’s grappling credentials represent Della Maddalena’s toughest stylistic challenge to date. If the champion can keep this fight upright and unleash his power, he may defy the odds and pull off a career-defining upset in front of a boisterous New York crowd.
In the coalescence of Makhachev’s world-class wrestling and Della Maddalena’s explosive striking lies the intrigue of this Welterweight Title showdown. Whether the cage tilts toward ground supremacy or ends in a violent exchange on the feet, UFC 322 promises to deliver the kind of drama that has made Madison Square Garden a sacred site for championship combat.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Islam Makhachev – The Sambo Powerhouse
Background
- Age: 33
- Country: Dagestan Republic, Russia
- Fighting Style: Sambo / Grappling specialist
- Physicals: 70″ height, 70.5″ arm reach, 40.5″ leg reach
- UFC Record: 27–1–0
Recent Form
- Jan. 2025 vs Renato Moicano – Win by Submission (R1, 4:05)
- Jun. 2024 vs Dustin Poirier – Win by Submission (R5, 2:42)
- Oct. 2023 vs Alexander Volkanovski – Win by KO/TKO (R1, 3:06)
- Feb. 2023 vs Alexander Volkanovski – Win by Unanimous Decision (5 Rds)
- Oct. 2022 vs Charles Oliveira – Win by Submission (R2, 3:16)
Makhachev enters this championship bout riding a six-fight finishing streak, punctuated by elite victories over former champions and perennial contenders.
Strengths
- Wrestling & Grappling:
- Takedown Accuracy: 54%
- Takedown Defense: 91%
- Overwhelms opponents with suffocating top control, transitions cleanly to submission threats.
- Striking Defense:
- Significant Strike Defense: 61% – excellent at slipping and resetting under pressure.
- Cardio & Fight IQ:
- Avg. Fight Time: 10:12 – capable of maintaining high pace through later rounds.
- Demonstrates discipline in distance management and back-to-wall scrambles.
Weaknesses
- KO Power:
- Only 5 career KOs – less one-punch explosiveness than many top welterweights.
- Finishing Urgency:
- 0 first-round finishes recorded in UFC stats, indicating a tendency to methodically break down foes rather than explosive early stoppages.
- Striking Output:
- While accurate (59% sig. strike accuracy), his volume can lag against high-output boxers.
Jack Della Maddalena – The Explosive Australian Champion
Background
- Age: 29
- Country: Australia
- Fighting Style: MMA striker with knockout pedigree
- Physicals: 71″ height, 73″ arm reach, 40.5″ leg reach
- UFC Record: 18–2–0 (Current Welterweight Champion)
Recent Form
- May 2025 vs Belal Muhammad – Win by Unanimous Decision (5 Rds)
- Mar. 2024 vs Gilbert Burns – Win by KO/TKO (R3, 3:43)
- Sep. 2023 vs Kevin Holland – Win by Split Decision (3 Rds)
- Jul. 2023 vs Bassil Hafez – Win by Split Decision (3 Rds)
- Feb. 2023 vs Randy Brown – Win by Submission (R1, 2:13)
Della Maddalena has blitzed through opponents with punishing power and just enough wrestling to avoid dangerous ground scrambles—until now.
Strengths
- Explosive Power:
- 12 KOs, 8 first-round finishes – elite one-punch or combination stopping power.
- Carries knockout threat every time he throws.
- Size & Reach:
- Leverages a 73″ reach to keep opponents at bay and set up heavy counters.
- Durability & Heart:
- Has gone five rounds in title fights, showing ability to adapt mid-fight (evident in unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad).
- Aggression:
- Relentless forward pressure creates openings for power shots.
Weaknesses
- Grappling Defense:
- Limited data on takedown defense (0% listed in UFC stats) – untested against elite wrestlers like Makhachev.
- Could be vulnerable to sustained top control and submission artistry.
- Cardio Under Duress:
- While capable of going five rounds, high-pace wrestling exchanges could sap his gas tank.
- Adjustments:
- Tends to rely on power; may struggle if opponent neutralizes his striking rhythm early.
Matchup Outlook:
Islam Makhachev’s grappling dominance vs. Jack Della Maddalena’s knockout artistry sets up a classic chess match: will “Makhachev” smother the champion’s power on the mat, or can Della Maddalena keep it upright and land fight-ending blows? Both men enter at the top of their games, making this Welterweight Title clash a compelling blend of styles and skill sets.
Betting Odds and Line Movement
Current Betting Lines
- Islam Makhachev: –285 (average across major books)
- Jack Della Maddalena: +235 (average across major books)
Oddsmakers make Makhachev a heavy favorite at –285, meaning you must risk $285 to win $100. By contrast, Della Maddalena sits at +235, making him a true underdog—bet $100 to win $235. The line differential of 520 points underscores the belief that Makhachev’s grappling pedigree and finishing streak give him a clear edge, while Della Maddalena’s knockout power and championship poise keep him firmly in the upset conversation.
Line Movement & Historical Swings
- Makhachev’s Opening Line:
- Began around –255 at BetOnline (Oct. 25)
- Drifted out to –265 by Oct. 27
- Settled deeper into –285 on Nov. 3
- Della Maddalena’s Opening Line:
- Launched at +215 on Oct. 25
- Briefly shortened to +195 at BetRivers (Oct. 26)
- Closed at +235 on Nov. 3
Both fighters saw steady line movement driven by public money and sharp action. Makhachev’s odds have gradually lengthened (from –255 to –285), signaling growing confidence from bettors willing to pay more juice to back him. Meanwhile, Della Maddalena’s odds have swung wider (from +215 to +235), indicating that while some remain optimistic about the champion’s power, the bulk of wagers are flowing to the favorite.
Payouts & Implied Probabilities
- Betting $1,000 on Makhachev (–285):
- Payout: $1,350 total ($1,000 stake + $350 profit)
- Implied Chance: ~74%
- Betting $1,000 on Della Maddalena (+235):
- Payout: $3,350 total ($1,000 stake + $2,350 profit)
- Implied Chance: ~30%
If you shop for the best lines, consider that DraftKings currently offers Makhachev at –258 (slightly better for bettors than –285), and BetOnline lists Della Maddalena at +250 (vs. +235 elsewhere), boosting your potential return to $3,500 on a $1,000 wager.
Best Sportsbook for Value
- Favorite (Makhachev): DraftKings at –258
- Underdog (Della Maddalena): BetOnline at +250
By locking in Makhachev at –258, you improve your profit to roughly $388 on a $1,000 bet (versus $350 at –285). By taking Della Maddalena at +250, you lock in a potential $2,500 profit (vs. $2,350 at +235). These small edges can pay dividends over time.
Summary: Islam Makhachev is the consensus favorite, commanding roughly a 74% implied chance of victory, while Jack Della Maddalena’s 30% implied chance makes him the underdog. Line movement has trended toward the favorite over the past two weeks, but sharp bettors can still find value on both sides by shopping for the best available odds. If you’re laying money down, consider the sportsbooks that offer the most favorable lines to maximize your payout.
AI Pick: Islam Makhachev
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Islam Makhachev, or see all the AI picks for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
