UFC 322: Shevchenko vs Weili Analysis & AI Pick

Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, November 16, 2025, two of the most complete women’s MMA fighters on the planet will square off for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship at the legendary Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The main card is set to begin at approximately 10:00 PM ET (03:00 AM UTC), with Valentina Shevchenko defending her belt against the former strawweight queen Zhang Weili in a showdown that has instantly become one of the most anticipated title fights of the year.

This clash pitches the reigning champion, Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1), against the No. 1 contender, Zhang Weili (26-3-0), in a true battle of striking maestros. Both athletes are Muay Thai specialists with world-class grappling credentials, giving fans every reason to expect fireworks on each of MMA’s five championship rounds.

Zhang Weili enters as the slight betting favorite, carrying moneyline odds averaging around -112 at top sportsbooks like Caesars, Bovada, and BetOnline.ag. Weili’s recent run has been nearly flawless: she’s steamrolled Tatiana Suarez, Xiaonan Yan and Amanda Lemos—all by unanimous decision—demonstrating not only her power and pace but also her improved takedown defense (74%) and refined submission game (8 career submissions). At 36 years old, she brings championship experience from strawweight, where she was known for her ferocity and finishing ability (11 first-round finishes).

Meanwhile, Valentina Shevchenko is the underdog on most boards, with odds around -108 to -110. Yet she remains the reigning flyweight queen, having captured gold in December 2018 and defended her title an unprecedented seven times. The 37-year-old Kyrgyzstan native blends elite zone kicking, counter-striking (52% accuracy) and chain-wrestling (60% takedown accuracy) to suffocate opponents. Her only blemishes at flyweight came in back-to-back losses to Alexa Grasso, setting the stage for a redemptive title reign that included a unanimous decision win over Manon Fiorot this past May.

Beyond their statistical profiles, this matchup is a generational encounter: Shevchenko represents the gold standard of flyweight dominance, while Zhang embodies the new wave of all-around MMA athleticism. The champion boasts a championship pedigree unmatched in the division’s short history, but the challenger offers a lethal combination of power, speed, and wrestling that has proven effective against the division’s best.

As fight night approaches, bettors and pundits alike are poring over minute differentials in reach (Shevchenko’s 67-inch arm versus Weili’s 63-inch reach), average fight time (18:44 vs. 14:31), and striking defense (63% vs. 54%). Yet at its core, this bout will be decided by who can better implement their game plan under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Will Zhang’s relentless volume and pressure dethrone the champion? Or will Shevchenko’s precision and veteran savvy keep her atop the flyweight throne? The stakes have never been higher, and MMA fans around the world will be watching every strike, takedown attempt, and scramble in what promises to be a modern classic.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Zhang Weili: “Magnum”

Age: 36 • Country: China (Hebei) • Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Recent Form

• Feb. 8, 2025: Def. Tatiana Suarez (Unanimous Decision)
• Apr. 13, 2024: Def. Xiaonan Yan (Unanimous Decision)
• Aug. 19, 2023: Def. Amanda Lemos (Unanimous Decision)
• Nov. 12, 2022: Def. Carla Esparza (Submission, R2 1:05)
• Jun. 11, 2022: Def. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (KO/TKO, R2 2:28)

Zhang has won five straight, showcasing a well-rounded skill set. Three unanimous decision victories over top contenders illustrate her cardio, clinch control, and ability to adapt striking in later rounds. The stoppage wins over Esparza and Jedrzejczyk highlight her finishing instincts, combining Muay Thai power with slick submission transitions.

Strengths

• Striking Output & Accuracy: 54% significant strike accuracy on 14:31 average fight time creates constant pressure.
• Finishing Ability: 11 first-round finishes; 11 KOs and 8 submissions attest to multi-dimensional offense.
• Improved Takedown Defense: 74% takedown defense helps keep fight standing where she excels.

Vulnerabilities

• Striking Defense: Allows 54% of opponent’s strikes; can be out-pointed by more evasive counters.
• Takedown Offense: 46% takedown accuracy—Susceptible to elite wrestlers who can chain takedowns.
• Fight Duration: Shorter average fight time (14:31) means late-round stamina versus a longer-paced fighter could be tested.

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Valentina Shevchenko: “Bullet”

Age: 37 • Country: Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) • Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Recent Form

• May 10, 2025: Def. Manon Fiorot (Unanimous Decision)
• Sep. 14, 2024: Def. Alexa Grasso (Unanimous Decision)
• Sep. 16, 2023: Lost to Alexa Grasso (Split Decision)
• Mar. 4, 2023: Lost to Alexa Grasso (Submission, R4 4:34)
• Jun. 11, 2022: Def. Taila Santos (Split Decision)

Shevchenko rebounded from back-to-back losses to Grasso with two unanimous decision wins, reclaiming her comfort zone as the flyweight queen. Her championship experience shines through measured pace, deep fight IQ, and the ability to neutralize opponents’ strengths while imposing her own.

Strengths

• Striking Defense & Counter-Striking: 63% significant strike defense and 52% accuracy allow her to capitalize on openings.
• Wrestling & Grappling: 60% takedown accuracy and 76% takedown defense—elite control both offensively and defensively.
• Ring Generalship: 18:44 average fight time reflects excellent cardio and strategic fight management through five rounds.

Vulnerabilities

• Power Output: Only 8 KOs and 6 first-round finishes—less one-punch power compared to Zhang, requiring accumulation of strikes.
• Age & Wear: At 37 and with nearly a decade at the top, potential for slowed reflexes in high-pace exchanges.
• Previous Grasso Losses: Demonstrates possible difficulty with elite counter-wrestlers who can avoid her striking range.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Reach & Height: Shevchenko holds a 67-inch reach advantage over Zhang’s 63 inches, favoring her long-range kicks and counters.
• Pace & Cardio: Zhang’s volume striking could force a higher pace, but Shevchenko’s longer average fight time suggests she’s built for deep rounds.
• Grapple Exchanges: If Zhang can avoid Shevchenko’s takedowns and impose her own clinch Muay Thai, she’ll exploit Shev’s lower strike output. Conversely, Shevchenko will look to drag the fight into clinch control or ground positions where her wrestling edges.

This matchup pits Zhang Weili’s power-striking and improved takedown defense against Shevchenko’s championship-caliber defense and grappling mastery—a stylistic chess match sure to define the next era of the women’s flyweight division.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of November 3, 2025, the title tilt between Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili is effectively a pick-’em, with Valentina Shevchenko holding a very slim edge on the moneyline. Here’s a look at what the major sportsbooks are offering:

• Valentina Shevchenko (C)
  • Caesars: −110
  • FanDuel: −113
  • BetOnline.ag: −108
  • DraftKings: −115
  • Bovada: −108
  • BetRivers: −105
  • BetMGM: −110

• Zhang Weili (#1)
  • Caesars: −110
  • FanDuel: −113
  • BetOnline.ag: −112
  • DraftKings: −105
  • Bovada: −112
  • BetRivers: −118
  • BetMGM: −110

Despite near-identical pricing, Shevchenko is the slight favorite at an average of about −110, while Weili checks in around −112. From a bettor’s perspective, that means you have to risk $110 on Shevchenko to win $100, versus $112 on Weili to win $100.

Favorite vs. Underdog & Best Lines

• Favorite: Valentina Shevchenko (avg. −110)
• Underdog: Zhang Weili (avg. −112)

If you’re backing the underdog Zhang Weili, the best price is currently at DraftKings (−105). By contrast, the juiciest line on Shevchenko is at BetRivers (−105), matching the DraftKings price on Weili.

Line Movement & Swing Analysis

A review of the week-long line history shows only minor fluctuations (±5 cents) at most sportsbooks:

• BetOnline.ag (Weili): Opened at −115, ticked down to −125, then bounced back to −110.
• Bovada (Weili): Ranged from −112 to −117 before settling.
• BetOnline.ag (Shevchenko): Briefly showed a positive-market glitch at +105 before correcting to −110.
• Bovada (Shevchenko): Moved between −108 and −103 in early trading.

No dramatic swings or sharp money “steam” moves have occurred, suggesting the market remains balanced and bettors are split almost evenly between the champion and challenger.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Implied Chances

• $1,000 on Weili at DraftKings (−105)
  • Profit if she wins: $952
  • Total return: $1,952

• $1,000 on Shevchenko at BetRivers (−105)
  • Profit if she wins: $952
  • Total return: $1,952

Based on these lines, Shevchenko carries roughly a 53% chance to win, while Weili sits at about 52%. Those are razor-thin margins that underscore just how evenly matched this championship bout has become.