Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Fight Analysis & Betting Pick

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Fight Analysis

Date & Time: November 16, 2025, 11:15 PM ET (Main Card)
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, United States
Event: UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev

Introduction

On November 16, 2025, the welterweight division will showcase one of its most intriguing matchups when Leon Edwards (22-5-0) squares off against Carlos Prates (22-7-0) on the Main Card of UFC 322 at the world-famous Madison Square Garden. The fight is scheduled to begin at approximately 11:15 PM ET, following a stacked undercard that features championship contenders and rising prospects. As the #4-ranked Edwards looks to bounce back from a narrow submission loss to Sean Brady in March, the #9-ranked Prates arrives with a four-fight finishing streak under his belt and the striking prowess that has made him one of the toughest Brazilian knockout artists in the division.

With Carlos Prates opening as the -210 favorite (via FanDuel) and Leon Edwards slotted in as the +162 underdog, this bout has captured the attention of bettors and fight fans alike. The odds reflect Prates’s elite striking metrics—54% significant strike accuracy and 100% takedown accuracy—as well as his ability to end fights early, having recorded 10 first-round finishes. In contrast, Edwards brings a veteran’s savvy and a diverse MMA skill set, boasting a 54% striking accuracy, solid 53% strike defense, and a well-rounded approach that includes 36% takedown accuracy and a reputation for grinding out decisions over five rounds.

What’s at Stake

• Leon Edwards: A win would reestablish him as a top-five welterweight and keep his title dreams alive following his recent setback. With seven career knockouts and three submissions, Edwards has shown he can finish fights in multiple ways, but his average fight time of 17:19 suggests he often goes the distance.
• Carlos Prates: Victory would propel Prates into the championship discussion and underscore his status as one of Brazil’s brightest striking talents. His 84% takedown defense and high knockout ratio (17 KOs in 22 wins) make him a dangerous threat in any phase.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup is a classic stylistic clash: Edwards’s calculated, methodical MMA game versus Prates’s explosive knockout power and flawless takedown execution. For bettors, the disparity in odds offers value on both sides—Edwards at +162 presents a lucrative underdog play, while Prates at -210 is a safer pick for those confident in his finishing ability. The winner could very well be in line for a top-three ranking and a high-profile fight early next year.

As UFC 322 rolls into the iconic Madison Square Garden, this Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates showdown promises fireworks, technical brilliance, and a potential statement performance that could reshape the welterweight landscape. Whether you’re backing the gritty veteran from England or the Brazilian knockout artist, this is a fight you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Makhachev can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Makhachev event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Leon Edwards Profile

Country: England (born Kingston, Jamaica)
Age: 34
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA
Record: 22-5-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 22, 2025: Loss vs Sean Brady (Submission, R4)
• Jul. 27, 2024: Loss vs Belal Muhammad (Unanimous Decision, 5 Rds)
• Dec. 16, 2023: Win vs Colby Covington (Unanimous Decision, 5 Rds)
• Mar. 18, 2023: Win vs Kamaru Usman (Majority Decision, 5 Rds)
• Aug. 20, 2022: Win vs Kamaru Usman (KO/TKO, R5 – 4:04)

Strengths:

• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 17:19 and multiple five-round decisions show elite gas tank and mental toughness.
• Strike Defense: 53% significant strike defense allows Edwards to absorb and evade opponent’s offense effectively.
• Versatility: With seven KOs and three submissions, he can adapt to striking, wrestling, or grappling exchanges.
• Experience at Championship Level: Recent wins over top-5 opponents (Usman, Covington) demonstrate his ability under pressure.

Weaknesses:

• Finishing Rate: Only 5 first-round finishes in 22 wins and a modest KO rate (7) indicate fewer explosive finishes.
• Takedown Offense: 36% takedown accuracy suggests difficulty imposing wrestling against elite grapplers.
• Vulnerability to Submissions: Loss by submission to Brady highlights occasional lapses in submission defense under fatigue.

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Carlos Prates Profile

Country: Brazil (born State of São Paulo)
Age: 32
Fighting Style: Pure Striker with Greco-Roman pedigree
Record: 22-7-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Aug. 16, 2025: Loss vs Geoff Neal (Decision)
• Apr. 26, 2025: Loss vs Ian Garry (Unanimous Decision, 5 Rds)
• Nov. 09, 2024: Win vs Neil Magny (KO/TKO, R1 – 4:50)
• Aug. 17, 2024: Win vs Li Jingliang (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:02)
• Jun. 08, 2024: Win vs Charles Radtke (KO/TKO, R1 – 4:47)

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: 17 KOs and 10 first-round finishes make him one of the division’s most dangerous punchers.
• Takedown Mastery: A perfect 100% takedown accuracy (albeit small sample) and 84% takedown defense show skill in Greco-Roman wrestling exchanges.
• High Strike Accuracy: 54% significant strike accuracy, matching Edwards, with a heavy emphasis on power strikes.
• Quick Finisher: An average fight time of 9:08 indicates his ability to end fights rapidly before opponents settle into a rhythm.

Weaknesses:

• Strike Defense: At 48%, he concedes a higher volume of significant strikes than elite defensive fighters.
• Cardio in Extended Wars: Tendency for early finishes may mask cardio issues in later rounds; his two most recent losses went the distance.
• Ground Grappling: Only 3 submission wins and no submission defense metric could be exploited by submission specialists if taken down.

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Clash of Styles

This bout is a classic power striker vs. methodical technician matchup. Edwards is battle-tested over five rounds, excels in wrestling defense, and thrives in attritional wars. Prates, meanwhile, brings devastating power, flawless takedowns, and quick finishes. Edwards must weather early storms, drag Prates into deep water, and capitalize on potential cardio dips. Prates must land early, maintain pressure, and avoid long exchanges where Edwards’s defense and experience can turn the tide. Bettors should consider Edwards’s durability and mixed-martial arts IQ against Prates’s finishing upside when evaluating Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates.

Odds Overview & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Carlos Prates (Favorite):

  • Caesars: -200
  • FanDuel: -210
  • Bovada: -215
  • BetMGM: -210
  • BetOnline.ag: -200

• Leon Edwards (Underdog):

  • Caesars: +150
  • FanDuel: +162
  • Bovada: +178
  • BetMGM: +170
  • BetOnline.ag: +170

Carlos Prates is the clear favorite, with odds clustered between -200 and -215 across top sportsbooks. Leon Edwards is the underdog, with his most generous line at +178 on Bovada. If you’re looking for the best value on Edwards, Bovada’s +178 is the top pick; for backing Prates, Caesars or BetOnline.ag at -200 offers the lowest juice on the favorite.

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Odds History & Line Movement

A look at the Bovada odds shows notable swings over the past two weeks:

• Initial Open (Oct. 21): Prates at -198/–195, Edwards at +168/ +165.
• Mid-Cycle Shift (Oct. 24): Prates dipped to -205 to -210, Edwards climbed to +173 to +175.
• Late Adjustment (Oct. 30–Nov. 3): Prates peaked at -215, Edwards climbed to +178.

These movements suggest increasing bettor confidence in Edwards as fight night approaches, driving his payout line higher. Conversely, Prates’s line slid from -198 to -215, indicating either heavy sharp action on Edwards or cautious adjustment by oddsmakers to balance liability. No single drastic swing stands out—a gradual shift over ten days shows a steady flow of wagers on the Englishman.

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Potential Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Betting Prates at -200:

  • Payout: $1,500 total ($1,000 stake + $500 winnings)
  • Implied Probability: Roughly 67% that Prates wins

• Betting Edwards at +178:

  • Payout: $2,780 total ($1,000 stake + $1,780 winnings)
  • Implied Probability: Roughly 36% that Edwards wins

Given these numbers, Prates is viewed as the safer pick, but Edwards offers a significantly higher upside on a winning ticket.

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Betting Takeaway

• Underdog Value: Edwards at +178 (Bovada) delivers the largest potential return.
• Lean Favorite: Prates at -200 (Caesars or BetOnline.ag) minimizes risk on the chalk.
• Line Momentum: Gradual drift toward Edwards indicates growing confidence or smart-money action—watch for late shifts on fight week for the sharpest edges.

Whether you prefer the high-reward underdog play or the steadier favorite, understanding these line movements and payout scenarios will help you make an informed wager on Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates.