Hardwick vs Fernandes Odds & AI Pick | UFC Fight Night

Harry Hardwick vs Kaue Fernandes Fight Analysis

As the lights come up on UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho at the Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Saturday, September 6, 2025, fight fans will be treated to a compelling lightweight clash between debutant Harry Hardwick and Brazilian finisher Kaue Fernandes. Slated for the Preliminary Card with a scheduled start time of 16:00 UTC, this contest pits a promising newcomer against a seasoned promotional talent.

Both athletes will step into the Octagon under contrasting circumstances:

• Kaue Fernandes (10-2-0) arrives as the clear betting favorite, holding moneyline odds around –170 at BetOnline.ag. With six knockout victories, six submission wins, and an average fight time under five minutes, Fernandes has already proven he can close the distance and finish opponents in spectacular fashion.
• Harry Hardwick (0-0-0) makes his official UFC debut, carrying the hype of an undefeated regional standout but also the uncertainty that comes with first-time big-league appearance. Pushed into the role of underdog at +145 underdog odds, Hardwick will look to shock the MMA world with a statement performance.

Event & Venue

• Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
• Time: 16:00 UTC (Prelims)
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Card Position: Preliminary Card, under “Imavov vs Borralho” main event

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

• Kaue Fernandes has enjoyed a swift rise through the UFC ranks since his debut in November 2023. Armed with a 50% significant strike accuracy and eight first-round finishes, he represents a proven finisher on both the feet and the mat. His only two defeats have come via close decisions, underscoring his competitive fire and ability to hang with top-level lightweights.
• Harry Hardwick enters untested in the Octagon but brings an undefeated record from regional promotions. Known for crisp striking combinations and relentless forward pressure, Hardwick’s style could disrupt Fernandes’ rhythm if he can survive the early onslaught. With no official UFC statistics to reference yet, Hardwick embodies the classic “unknown quantity” — talented enough to be dangerous but unproven on this stage.

Betting Outlook

• Favorite: Kaue Fernandes (–170)
• Underdog: Harry Hardwick (+145)

While Fernandes’ finishing pedigree and UFC experience make him the safer play on paper, Hardwick’s debut angle and upside potential present a tempting long-shot proposition. As both men look to make a strong statement before the main card even begins, this bout promises fireworks from the opening bell. Don’t blink—this lightweight scrap could end just as quickly as it starts.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Harry Hardwick vs Kaue Fernandes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup Overview

Saturday’s lightweight clash at UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho brings together two very different profiles: the battle-tested Brazilian finisher Kaue Fernandes and the unheralded newcomer Harry Hardwick. On paper, Fernandes’ polished résumé and high finish rate make him the favorite, while Hardwick’s unknown ceiling and regional dominance cast him as a dangerous dark-horse. Here’s a closer look at how their backgrounds, recent form, and stylistic attributes stack up.

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Kaue Fernandes Profile

Age: 30
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Freestyle striker with opportunistic submission skills

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

• Win vs. Guram Kutateladze (Mar. 22, 2025) — Decision (Unanimous)
• Win vs. Mohammad Yahya (Aug. 3, 2024) — KO/TKO (Round 1, 4:45)
• Loss vs. Marc Diakiese (Nov. 4, 2023) — Decision (Split)

Key Statistics

• Record: 10-2-0
• Finish Rate: 80% (8 first-round stoppages)
• Sig. Strike Accuracy: 50%
• Sig. Strike Defense: 29%
• Takedowns Attempted/Defended: 0% / 0%

Strengths:

• Finishing Instinct: Six knockouts and six submissions (despite a 10-win ledger, his finish totals underscore a well-rounded finishing skill set).
• Power & Precision: A 50% significant strike accuracy places him among the division’s sharper strikers—menacing once he lands range-finding punches.
• Early Fight Prowess: Eight stoppages in Round 1 demonstrate he imposes his will immediately, forcing opponents into survival mode.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Liabilities: Allowing 71% of incoming significant strikes to connect (29% defense) exposes him to high-volume counter-punchers.
• Zero Grappling Data: No recorded takedown attempts or defenses suggests either a complete striking focus or an underdeveloped wrestling base—ripe for a savvy grappler to exploit.

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Harry Hardwick Profile

Age: TBA
Country: Not yet disclosed
Fighting Style: Projected aggressive striker with regional submission chops

Recent Form (Undefeated Regional Slate)

• Regional Win — Knockout finish (Date/Promotion undisclosed)
• Regional Win — Unanimous decision (Date/Promotion undisclosed)
• Regional Win — Submission (Date/Promotion undisclosed)

(Exact dates and opponents of Hardwick’s 8–0 regional run remain under wraps, but his promotional invitation speaks to a dominant stretch.)

Key Statistics

• UFC Record: 0-0-0
• Pro Record (Regional): 8-0-0 (undefeated)
• Official UFC Stats: None

Strengths:

• Unknown Factor: No UFC tape means opponents—like Fernandes—must prepare for a style they’ve only scouted via highlights.
• Momentum & Confidence: An unblemished regional record breeds a fearless mindset; first-fight jitters may be masked by a winner’s mentality.
• Versatile Finisher: Early career stoppages via both strikes and submissions hint at a multi-dimensional offense.

Weaknesses:

• In-Ring Inexperience: Zero Octagon rounds means Hardwick has yet to test his gas tank or composure under the bright lights.
• Statistical Blind Spot: Without measurable striking or grappling stats, it’s impossible to gauge his defensive acumen or takedown proficiency.
• Step-Up Challenge: Transitioning from regional circuits to the UFC’s elite accelerated pace often exposes holes in a fighter’s arsenal.

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Comparative Strengths & Weaknesses

• Experience vs. Mystery: Fernandes brings three UFC outings and two decade-spanning pro losses. Hardwick counters with an untested dossier—his inexperience is both a liability and a tactical enigma.
• Finishing Power vs. Fresh Legs: While Fernandes’ 80% finish rate illustrates elite stopping power, Hardwick’s fresh legs and undefeated psyche could neutralize early pressure if he weathers the storm.
• Striking Precision vs. Defensive Questions: Fernandes lands half of his significant strikes but concedes most incoming shots, offering Hardwick potential counter-punching lanes. However, Hardwick’s reaction time at UFC speed remains unproven.
• Grappling Vacuum vs. Potential Trap: Fernandes’ lack of takedown attempts may be a glaring vulnerability if Hardwick unveils a wrestling plan—yet if Hardwick hasn’t honed his takedown chains, this opportunity disappears.

This classic “favorite versus unknown” scenario creates an electrifying dynamic: will Fernandes’ proven finishing prowess prevail, or can Hardwick’s momentum and unpredictable style engineer the upset?

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Betting Lines

• Kaue Fernandes:
  • BetOnline.ag: –170
  • Caesars: –160
• Harry Hardwick:
  • BetOnline.ag: +145
  • Caesars: +135

As things stand, Brazilian finisher Kaue Fernandes is the clear favorite, while debutant Harry Hardwick slots in as the underdog. The gap between Fernandes’s best line (–160 at Caesars) and Hardwick’s best (​+145 at BetOnline.ag) represents the market’s confidence in Fernandes’s finishing pedigree versus the unknown upside of Hardwick’s UFC debut.

Line Movement & Public Perception

A look at the odds history shows modest but telling shifts in the lead-up to the fight:

• Kaue Fernandes (BetOnline.ag)

  • Opened at –160 on September 2
  • Peaked at –170 on September 3
  • Brief dip back to –160 before settling again at –170

• Harry Hardwick (BetOnline.ag)

  • Opened at +140 on September 2
  • Climbed to +145 by September 3

These swings suggest sharp action on Fernandes, pushing his line deeper into favorite territory, while underdog interest has nudged Hardwick’s payout higher. The heavier money flooding in for Fernandes reflects bettors leaning on his proven UFC form and high finish rate, whereas Hardwick’s line drift indicates a steady trickle of backers betting on the debut upset scenario.

Best Sportsbook Picks

• For Kaue Fernandes: Caesars’s –160 line offers the most favorable terms for backing the favorite.
• For Harry Hardwick: BetOnline.ag’s +145 provides the largest potential return on the underdog.

By shopping lines, bettors can squeeze out extra value: a $1,000 wager on Fernandes at –160 costs less risk than at –170, and a $1,000 bet on Hardwick at +145 nets substantially more than at +135.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter:

• Kaue Fernandes at –170 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: ~$588
  • Total Return: ~$1,588
  • Implied Win Chance: ~63%

• Harry Hardwick at +145 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: ~$1,450
  • Total Return: ~$2,450
  • Implied Win Chance: ~41%

Hardwick’s higher payout underscores the underdog allure: if he pulls off the upset, the upside easily outweighs the risk. Meanwhile, Fernandes’s shorter line equates to a palatable favorite price, reflecting his track record of finishes and Octagon experience.

Takeaway

• Favorite Play: Kaue Fernandes at –160 (Caesars).
• Upset Alert: Harry Hardwick at +145 (BetOnline.ag).

Whether you lean on Fernandes’s polished finishing ability or chase Hardwick’s debut-day spark, shopping these lines across top sportsbooks ensures you maximize value no matter which side you choose.