# Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus fight analysis
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva
**Date & Time:** September 13, 2025 • 10:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CT
**Location:** Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
**Card:** Main Card, Middleweight Bout
Get ready for a clash of styles and trajectories as **Kelvin Gastelum** (-230) takes on **Dustin Stoltzfus** (+195) in a pivotal Middleweight matchup on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva. This highly anticipated fight will go off on Saturday, September 13, 2025, under the bright lights of the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. Fans tuning in from across North America can catch the action live on ESPN+ starting at 10:00 PM ET, while the local Texas crowd will be on hand at 9:00 PM CT to witness what could be a defining moment for both athletes.
Kelvin Gastelum, a UFC veteran since 2013, enters this bout as the **betting favorite** at **-230**, thanks to his proven boxing pedigree, relentless pressure, and experience inside the Octagon. With a professional record of 20–10–0, “The Sandman” has shared the cage with some of the division’s elite and remains hungry to re-establish himself in the Top 15. Gastelum’s hallmark attributes—solid takedown defense (59%), a 42% significant strike accuracy, and a first-round finishing rate of 35%—make him a tough assignment for any rising contender.
On the other side, Dustin Stoltzfus is the **underdog** at **+195**, but don’t let the odds fool you. The Lancaster native has compiled a 16–7–0 record with a balanced attack comprising six submission wins and three knockouts. Since debuting in the UFC in November 2020, Stoltzfus has shown off his Muay Thai striking base, 41% takedown accuracy, and a willingness to hunt for finishes early—six of his victories have come in the opening stanza. While he’s had his ups and downs, including a unanimous decision loss in May 2025, he remains a dangerous operator capable of catching Gastelum off-balance with his grappling transitions and unorthodox striking angles.
This fight represents more than just another middleweight contest. For Gastelum, a win here could salvage momentum after a tough defeat to Joe Pyfer in June 2025 and keep his veteran résumé relevant in a rapidly evolving division. For Stoltzfus, a victory over a former title challenger would catapult him into serious Middleweight contender conversation and validate the confidence that oddsmakers have shown in his finishing prowess.
As the lights go down and the cage door locks, expect Gastelum to press the action with crisp boxing combinations and takedown defense, while Stoltzfus will look to mix in elbows, low kicks, and takedowns to test Gastelum’s durability and cardio in the later rounds. With stylistic contrasts, contrasting octagon experience, and clear motivations on the line, this bout has all the ingredients for an electric showdown in San Antonio.
Stay tuned as we break down each fighter’s keys to victory, betting angles, and potential fight-ending scenarios in our full fight breakdown. Don’t miss what could be one of the most compelling middleweight matchups of the year.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.
# Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles
## Kelvin Gastelum: The Veteran Boxer
**Age:** 33
**Country:** United States
**Fighting Style:** Boxing
A seasoned UFC staple since 2013, Kelvin “The Sandman” Gastelum brings a boxing-first approach to the Octagon. With a **20-10-0** record, Gastelum has faced top middleweights—and championship contenders—throughout his career.
**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**
- **June 2025:** Loss vs Joe Pyfer (Decision)
- **June 2024:** Win vs Daniel Rodriguez (Unanimous Decision)
- **December 2023:** Loss vs Sean Brady (Submission – R3, 1:43)
- **April 2023:** Win vs Chris Curtis (Unanimous Decision)
- **August 2021:** Loss vs Jared Cannonier (Decision)
Gastelum is coming off a tough decision defeat to Joe Pyfer and has alternated wins and losses in four of his last five bouts. While he showcased ring generalship against Daniel Rodriguez and Chris Curtis, his submission loss to Sean Brady and durability tests against Cannonier raise questions about his ground defense under relentless pressure.
**Strengths:**
- **Strike Defense (57%):** Elite at avoiding significant strikes—Gastelum’s reflexes and head movement frustrate opponents.
- **Takedown Defense (59%):** Good scrambling skills keep him standing, where he’s most dangerous.
- **Cardio & Durability:** An average fight time of **13:40** demonstrates he can maintain a high pace across three rounds.
**Weaknesses:**
- **Strike Accuracy (42%):** Below-average connect rate means Gastelum can struggle against elusive fighters or when opponents control distance.
- **Takedown Offense (34%):** He rarely looks to wrestle, limiting his ability to change levels or exploit grappling mismatches.
- **Submission Defense:** His loss to Sean Brady via rear-naked choke highlights a potential vulnerability when fights hit the mat.
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## Dustin Stoltzfus: The Muay Thai Finisher
**Age:** 33
**Country:** United States
**Fighting Style:** Muay Thai
Dustin Stoltzfus enters the UFC with a **16-7-0** professional record, blending aggressive striking with a sneaky submission game. A late-blooming contender, he made his Octagon debut in November 2020 and has alternated highs and lows since.
**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):**
- **May 2025:** Loss vs Nursulton Ruziboev (Unanimous Decision)
- **November 2024:** Win vs Marc-André Barriault (KO/TKO – R1, 4:28)
- **June 2024:** Loss vs Brunno Ferreira (KO/TKO – R1, 4:51)
- **December 2023:** Win vs Punahele Soriano (Submission – R2, 4:10)
- **September 2022:** Loss vs Abus Magomedov (KO/TKO – R1, 0:19)
Stoltzfus boasts four finishes in his last five outings—three in the first round—showcasing his relentless forward pressure and finishing instinct. However, he’s also been stopped three times, indicating defensive lapses when opponents land heavy counters.
**Strengths:**
- **Significant Strike Accuracy (45%):** He lands nearly half of his power shots, reflecting crisp timing and effective distance management.
- **Takedown Offense (41%):** A dangerous wrestler when he chooses to mix levels, making him unpredictable.
- **Finishing Instinct:** Six first-round stoppages speak to his ability to seize openings early.
**Weaknesses:**
- **Strike Defense (47%):** Stoltzfus absorbs more significant strikes than he avoids—vulnerable to counterpunchers.
- **Takedown Defense (47%):** Below-average wrestling defense could be exploited by a savvy grappler like Gastelum.
- **Cardio & Later Rounds:** An average fight time of **9:18** suggests he may gas if the bout extends beyond two rounds.
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This middleweight duel features a classic stylistic contrast: Gastelum’s seasoned boxing and defensive acumen versus Stoltzfus’s aggressive Muay Thai and finishing flair. Who will impose their game plan first? Read on for our detailed keys to victory and betting edge.
# Betting Odds & Line Movement
## Current Betting Odds
As of the latest update on September 5, 2025, **Kelvin Gastelum** is installed as the clear favorite at **-230**, while **Dustin Stoltzfus** carries the underdog label at **+195**. This gap reflects the oddsmakers’ confidence in Gastelum’s proven skills, experience, and defensive acumen, contrasted with Stoltzfus’s penchant for explosive finishes but spotty defensive track record.
**Favorite:** Kelvin Gastelum (-230)
**Underdog:** Dustin Stoltzfus (+195)
**Best Sportsbook:** BetOnline.ag
BetOnline.ag currently offers the sharpest numbers for this middleweight tilt, with live odds that have remained consistent and deep liquidity to accommodate large wagers.
## Line History & Movement
• **Opening Lines:** When the fight was first posted, Gastelum opened around **-225** to **-235**, and Stoltzfus opened at **+185** to **+205**.
• **Current Lines:** Gastelum is steady at **-230**, Stoltzfus at **+195**.
• **Movement:** Thus far, the lines have shown only minor fluctuations—within 5 cents of a tick—indicating balanced betting action. There have been no dramatic swings or sharp money ploys that would suggest heavy late support for either fighter.
This stability suggests bettors on both sides respect the stylistic matchup: Gastelum’s elite takedown defense and boxing versus Stoltzfus’s Muay Thai aggression and submission upside. Monitor the closing hours for any late shifts, which often occur when sharp bettors identify hidden value.
## Payout & Implied Probabilities
Wondering about your potential return and what the odds say about each fighter’s chances? Here’s a quick snapshot if you put down **$1,000**:
- **Kelvin Gastelum (-230):**
– Profit: **$434.78**
– Total Payout: **$1,434.78**
– Implied Win Probability: **~69.7%**
- **Dustin Stoltzfus (+195):**
– Profit: **$1,950**
– Total Payout: **$2,950**
– Implied Win Probability: **~33.9%**
Despite Stoltzfus’s lower probability, his value as a +195 underdog can appeal to bettors seeking a bigger payday. Gastelum may look safer, but if you believe Stoltzfus’s finishing instincts can exploit Gastelum’s occasional defensive lapses, the underdog payout is compelling.
## Betting Angles to Watch
- **Sharp Money:** No significant line drifts have been triggered by professional “sharp” bets—yet. A late move of even half a tick could signal which side the big-money bettors favor.
- **Public Action:** Expect Gastelum to attract most public backing given his name recognition. If the line creeps past -240, consider fading the public and siding with Stoltzfus at +200 or better.
- **Prop Lines:** With Gastelum’s first-round finish rate at 35% and Stoltzfus’s at 38%, look for early-finish props in the +200 to +300 range for added value.
Keep an eye on the line as we get closer to cage time. A small shift could reveal the path of least resistance in what promises to be a highly competitive middleweight showdown.
