Costa vs Coria UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, September 13, 2025, fight fans will tune in for the flyweight showdown between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva. The action kicks off at 3:00 p.m. CT inside the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, with this bout likely slated to begin around 4:00 p.m. CT. As part of a stacked event featuring rising contenders and veterans alike, this matchup pits an established UFC competitor against an unbeaten prospect making his promotional debut.

Location and Timing

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva
• Card: Preliminary
• Date: September 13, 2025
• Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
• Local Start Time: 3:00 p.m. CT (Prelims)
• Estimated Bout Time: 4:00 p.m. CT

The Favorite: Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa enters this contest as the clear betting favorite, with the consensus odds hovering around –450 to –480 across major sportsbooks. Costa (14-4-0) has quickly made a name for himself in the flyweight division since his UFC debut in December 2022. The 28-year-old Brazilian boasts:

• Finishing Ability: 8 first-round finishes in 14 wins
• Striking Prowess: 48% significant strike accuracy
• Elite Defense: 58% significant strike defense and 91% takedown defense
• Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Roots: A dangerous submission threat with 6 career wins via tap

After earning a highlight-reel KO over Kevin Borjas in May 2024 and a second-round stoppage of Jimmy Flick in June 2023, Costa is riding momentum and has demonstrated a well-rounded skill set that makes him the heavy favorite against any newcomer.

The Underdog: Alden Coria

On the opposite side stands Alden Coria, a 27-year-old prospect out of Morristown, United States, making his UFC debut with an unblemished 0-0-0 record. Despite limited professional data, Coria is drawing significant attention from bettors willing to back the underdog, with moneyline odds between +330 and +350. Key points on Coria:

• UFC Debut: This will be his first appearance under the Octagon lights
• Age & Athletic Profile: 27 years old, likely still growing into his physical prime
• Unknown Variables: A largely untested striking and grappling arsenal at the highest level

While the lack of UFC-level experience places Coria squarely in the underdog role, his odds indicate that bookmakers respect the uncertainty surrounding any debuting fighter, especially one who may have untapped potential.

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With Costa firmly favored to extend his finish streak and Coria aiming to pull off a monumental upset, this flyweight encounter promises fireworks and perhaps an early stoppage. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s toolkit, key match-up advantages, and where sharp bettors can find value.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Alessandro Costa Profile

Age: 28
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist with evolving knockout power

Recent Form (Last 4 UFC Bouts):

• Win vs. Kevin Borjas (KO/TKO, R2 – May 4, 2024)
• Loss vs. Steve Erceg (Unanimous Decision, R3 – Nov. 11, 2023)
• Win vs. Jimmy Flick (KO/TKO, R2 – June 17, 2023)
• Loss vs. Amir Albazi (KO/TKO, R3 – Dec. 17, 2022)

Costa bursts onto the scene with a 14-4-0 professional record, boasting an impressive 8 first-round finishes. Since his UFC debut in December 2022, he’s alternated between highlight-reel stoppages and bouts that expose occasional defensive lapses. His ground game is elite—six career submissions—but he has shown rapid improvement in his striking arsenal, landing 48% significant strikes and finishing two foes by strikes in the past year.

Alden Coria Profile

Age: 27
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Unrevealed—projected well-rounded skill set based on regional résumé

Recent Form:

• Making his official UFC and professional debut on Sept. 13, 2025

Coria arrives undefeated in the professional ranks (0-0-0) but untested under the bright lights of the Octagon. At 27, he’s likely matured physically and tactically, but limited public footage makes his true strengths—striking accuracy, wrestling base, cardio capacity—largely speculative. With no pro bouts to analyze, Coria’s debut carries intrigue: will he showcase crisp boxing, relentless pressure, or slick grappling transitions?

Comparative Analysis: Strengths & Weaknesses

| Statistic | Alessandro Costa | Alden Coria (Debut) | |-----------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------| | Significant Strike Accuracy | 48% (Solid precision) | N/A (Unknown) | | Significant Strike Defense | 58% (Above average) | N/A | | Takedown Accuracy | 13% (Room for growth) | N/A | | Takedown Defense | 91% (Elite level) | N/A | | Finish Rate | 71% (10 of 14 wins) | N/A | | Average Fight Time | 10:58 (Versatile pace) | N/A |

Alessandro Costa Strengths:

• Elite Grappling & Transitions: High submission rate and stout takedown defense (91%) keep opponents guessing.
• Finisher’s Instinct: Four knockout wins and six submissions fuel a 71% finish rate.
• Defensive Striking: Over half of opponents’ strikes deflected or dodged.

Alessandro Costa Vulnerabilities:

• Takedown Offense: Struggles to convert wrestling control (13% accuracy).
• Susceptible to Power Shots: Two recent KO/TKO losses indicate occasional defensive lapses under pressure.

Alden Coria Strengths:

• Unknown Factor: No film study can fully anticipate his strengths—this unpredictability can disrupt Costa’s game plan.
• Physical Prime: At 27, likely at peak athleticism with fresh legs.
• Motivation & Momentum: Eager to make an immediate impact; debuting fighters often perform above expectations when well-prepared.

Alden Coria Vulnerabilities:

• Unproven at Elite Level: No UFC or pro fights leaves major question marks in striking defense, cardio, and fight IQ.
• Lack of Recorded Metrics: Zero track record in significant strikes landed/defended or takedown exchanges.

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This clash of proven finisher versus mystery prospect creates a compelling narrative. Costa’s polished grappling and finishing acumen will be tested by Coria’s unknown attributes, while the American newcomer must overcome a vast experience gap to pull off a monumental upset.

Odds Breakdown and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Alessandro Costa (Favorite)

• BetOnline.ag: –450
• FanDuel: –480
• Caesars (William Hill): –440
• BetMGM: –450
• BetUS: –450
• BetRivers: –360
• DraftKings: –455

Alden Coria (Underdog)

• BetOnline.ag: +350
• FanDuel: +330
• Caesars (William Hill): +340
• BetMGM: +340
• BetUS: +339
• BetRivers: +270
• DraftKings: +350

Across the board, Costa is a heavy favorite—every major sportsbook lists him at least –360, and most have him north of –440. Coria is firmly in underdog territory, with +330 to +350 at most books, except BetRivers (+270) which offers a slightly lower payout.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:

• To back Coria at the juiciest line, DraftKings or BetOnline.ag both offer +350.
• If you believe in Costa and want the best return on a one-sided favorite, BetRivers’ –360 is the most favorable line (less juice means better payout).

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Line Movement and Market Trends

A clear trend has emerged over the past 48 hours: the market has shifted steadily in favor of Costa, indicating sharp money and public confidence.

Alessandro Costa’s Line Drift

• BetOnline.ag: opened at –400 (Sept. 7, 14:18 UTC) → –450 (Sept. 8, 08:16 UTC)
• FanDuel: –390 → –480
• Caesars: –350 → –440
• BetMGM: –350 → –450
• BetUS: –400 → –450
• DraftKings: –410 → –455

The largest move was on FanDuel (–390 to –480), a 90-cent swing, showing significant action on Costa.

Alden Coria’s Line Drift

• BetOnline.ag: +300 → +350
• FanDuel: +280 → +330
• Caesars: +275 → +340
• BetMGM: +275 → +340
• BetUS: +309 → +339
• DraftKings: +320 → +350

Coria’s price has also drifted (e.g., +300 to +350 at BetOnline), meaning fewer bettors are willing to back the debuting underdog as money piles on Costa.

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Implied Payouts and Winning Probabilities

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter at the best available line today:

• Bet $1,000 on Alden Coria at +350 (DraftKings/BetOnline.ag)
  • Profit: $3,500
  • Total Return: $4,500

• Bet $1,000 on Alessandro Costa at –360 (BetRivers)
  • Profit: ~$278
  • Total Return: ~$1,278

Based on the current odds, the implied chance of victory is roughly:

• Costa: ~78%
• Coria: ~22%

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With Costa’s odds shortening and Coria’s drifting, the market clearly favors the Brazilian veteran. Sharp bettors will watch for any late swings—especially if Coria’s line begins to tighten—as that could signal backing by well-heeled insiders. Until then, DraftKings (for Coria) and BetRivers (for Costa) represent the best value for a $1,000 wager.