Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko UFC Odds & Analysis

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko Fight Analysis

Introduction

Get ready for an electrifying Welterweight clash when Rodrigo Sezinando takes on Daniil Donchenko on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva. This intriguing matchup is set to kick off on Saturday, September 13, 2025, at 7:00 PM local time inside the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. Both athletes will be making waves early in their UFC careers, and bettors have already weighed in—leaning heavily toward the Ukrainian newcomer.

Event Details

• Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:00 PM CT
• Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
• Card Position: Preliminary Card, Welterweight Division
• Event: UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva

The Favorite: Daniil Donchenko

Ukrainian kickboxer Daniil Donchenko enters the octagon as the clear betting favorite. Across six major sportsbooks, Donchenko’s odds range from -198 (DraftKings) to -230 (BetRivers), with a consensus price near -215. Here’s what makes him a threat:

• Professional record of 12–2, boasting 8 knockouts and 2 submissions.
• Four first-round finishes demonstrate explosive power and a killer instinct to close out opponents quickly.
• At just 24 years old, he combines youth and athleticism with a high-pressure striking style honed on the European kickboxing circuit.
• UFC debut on August 16, 2025, showed composure on the big stage—a critical factor for bettors.

With sharp hands, heavy low kicks, and a growing comfort level under the UFC spotlight, Donchenko is primed to overwhelm the Brazilian challenger early and often.

The Underdog: Rodrigo Sezinando

Brazilian prospect Rodrigo Sezinando counters as the underdog, priced between +164 (DraftKings) and +185 (Caesars, BetMGM). Despite the longer odds, Sezinando has plenty going for him:

• A stellar 9–1 professional record, punctuated by 5 first-round finishes.
• Well-rounded skill set: 4 knockouts and 2 submissions reflect his adaptability in striking and grappling exchanges.
• At 27 years old, he brings maturity and fight IQ, plus a 71-inch reach advantage over Donchenko.
• Also made his UFC debut on August 16, 2025, showcasing patience and tactical footwork against a veteran opponent.

Sezinando’s diverse attack—mixing takedowns, clinch work, and counter-strikes—could frustrate the younger fighter and set up a big upset for value-seeking bettors.

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As we approach fight night, the odds suggest a clear lean toward the devastating striker from Ukraine, but the Brazilian underdog possesses the tools to spring a shock. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, styles, and key betting angles—so you can bet smarter and anticipate how Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko might play out under the bright lights of the Frost Bank Center.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Fighter Backgrounds

This Welterweight showdown features two rising prospects taking the next step on the UFC stage. On one side, Rodrigo Sezinando brings a well-rounded MMA arsenal from Brazil; on the other, Daniil Donchenko arrives as a hard-hitting kickboxer representing Ukraine. Both athletes made their octagon debuts at UFC Fight Night on August 16, 2025, and now seek to build momentum under the bright lights in San Antonio.

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Rodrigo Sezinando Profile

Age & Origin: 27, Brazil
Fighting Style: MMA all-rounder (striking & grappling)
Physicals: 5’9″ (69″), 170 lb, 71″ reach
UFC Debut: Aug. 16, 2025
Pro Record: 9–1 (4 KOs, 2 subs, 5 first-round finishes)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Marcos Silva (KO, Round 1) – May 2025
2. Loss vs. Juan Ramirez (Decision, UD) – Feb 2025
3. Win vs. Carlos Mota (Submission, Round 2) – Oct 2024
4. Win vs. Andre Souza (Decision, SD) – Jul 2024
5. Win vs. Felipe Duarte (KO, Round 1) – Mar 2024

Sezinando bounced back quickly from his lone loss, stringing together three finishes and a razor-thin split decision win. His willingness to mix takedowns and heavy hooks has made him a nightmare for regional-level foes.

Strengths

• Finishing Instinct: 5 of 9 wins came in Round 1, showcasing fast starts and explosive power.
• Grappling Savvy: Two submission victories highlight smooth transitions and solid ground control.
• Reach Advantage: 71″ reach allows him to close distance safely and land counters.

Weaknesses

• Durability Under Pressure: His only pro loss was a unanimous decision; extended striking exchanges may wear him down.
• Striking Volume: Historically averages moderate strike output—could be out-paced by a heavy volume striker.
• Limited UFC Experience: One appearance leaves room for ringside nerves and tactical miscues.

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Daniil Donchenko Profile

Age & Origin: 24, Korosten, Ukraine
Fighting Style: Kickboxer (striking specialist)
Physicals: 5’11″ (71″), 170 lb, reach N/A
UFC Debut: Aug. 16, 2025
Pro Record: 12–2 (8 KOs, 2 subs, 4 first-round finishes)

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Pavel Kuznetsov (KO, Round 1) – Jun 2025
2. Win vs. Ivan Petrov (Submission, Round 3) – Jan 2025
3. Loss vs. Milan Hric (Decision, SD) – Sep 2024
4. Win vs. Andrei Baranov (KO, Round 2) – May 2024
5. Win vs. Viktor Chernov (Decision, UD) – Feb 2024

Donchenko has been virtually unstoppable since his only split-decision setback in late 2024. His kickboxing pedigree translates to heavy leg kicks and punishing combinations that break opponents down over three rounds—or collapse them in the first.

Strengths

• Striking Power & Precision: Eight career KOs; showcases textbook combinations, excellent angles, and punishing low kicks.
• First-Round Finisher: Four first-round stoppages signal a killer instinct early in the fight.
• Youth & Athleticism: At 24, his speed, recovery and cardio are on an upward trajectory.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Defense: Only two career submission wins and no recorded takedown defense data suggest potential vulnerability on the mat.
• Tactical Inexperience: Limited UFC ring time—may overcommit and leave openings to a crafty counter-wrestler.
• Durability in Extended Fights: Has shown signs of slowing after two rounds; late-round output can dip.

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This contrast in styles—Sezinando’s multi-dimensional skill set versus Donchenko’s elite striking—creates a classic striker-versus-all-rounder puzzle. In the sections ahead, we’ll dissect key metrics, betting angles, and likely fight scenarios for this compelling Welterweight scrap.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update, Daniil Donchenko is the clear favorite, while Rodrigo Sezinando slots in as the underdog across all major sportsbooks:

• Daniil Donchenko (Favorite)

  • DraftKings: -198
  • BetOnline.ag: -200
  • BetUS: -200
  • BetMGM & Caesars: -225
  • BetRivers: -230

• Rodrigo Sezinando (Underdog)

  • Caesars & BetMGM: +185
  • BetRivers: +180
  • DraftKings: +164
  • BetUS: +166
  • BetOnline.ag: +170

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• If you back the favorite, DraftKings at -198 offers the juiciest line (lowest juice).
• If you’re targeting the upset, Caesars or BetMGM at +185 provides maximum value on Sezinando.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history shows noteworthy swings over the past 48 hours:

• Daniil Donchenko

  • BetOnline.ag moved from –225 → –205 → –200
  • DraftKings shifted from –238 → –230 → –218 → –198

• Rodrigo Sezinando

  • BetOnline.ag moved from +190 → +175 → +170
  • DraftKings shifted from +195 → +190 → +180 → +164

These adjustments highlight two key trends:

1. Sharp Money on the Favorite
   Early DraftKings odds for Donchenko sat as short as –238, then steadily drifted up to –198. Simultaneously, Sezinando’s line collapsed from +195 to +164. This pattern indicates significant action on Donchenko, forcing sportsbooks to trim his juice and shorten Sezinando’s payout.

2. Responsive Line Tweaks
   Short-term bettors on BetOnline.ag and BetUS clearly bet into Donchenko’s strength after his UFC debut performance. The smaller fluctuations at Caesars and BetMGM suggest those books are balancing action more evenly between both fighters.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re laying down $1,000 on either fighter at the current best lines, here’s what you’d see:

• Betting on Daniil Donchenko at -198 (DraftKings)

  • Payout: $1,505 total return (profit of $505)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~66%

• Betting on Rodrigo Sezinando at +185 (Caesars / BetMGM)

  • Payout: $2,850 total return (profit of $1,850)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~35%

These figures underscore the risk/reward dynamic: Donchenko offers a higher chance of winning but more modest returns, while Sezinando pays out big if he pulls off the upset.

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Whether you lean toward the rising Ukrainian striker or the crafty Brazilian underdog, understanding where the sharp money has flowed—and which sportsbook offers the best line—will be crucial for maximizing your return on fight night.