UFC Betting: Hernandez vs Ferreira Preview & AI Pick

Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira Fight Analysis

Introduction

The lightweight clash between Alexander Hernandez and Diego Ferreira is poised to ignite the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva on September 13, 2025, at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. Fans tuning in can expect fireworks when the two warriors step into the Octagon, with the preliminary action scheduled to begin at 7:00 pm CT, and this pivotal encounter set for roughly midway through the undercard. As Hernandez and Ferreira look to propel themselves up the lightweight roster, the stakes are high: momentum, ranking implications, and a potential performance bonus are all on the line in what promises to be a high-tempo, technical battle.

Fighters and Odds

• Alexander Hernandez
  • Country: United States
  • UFC Record: 17–8–0
  • Age: 32
  • Height / Reach: 69″ / 72″
  • Style: MMA (Striking-focused)

• Diego Ferreira
  • Country: Brazil
  • UFC Record: 19–6–0
  • Age: 40
  • Height / Reach: 69″ / 74″
  • Style: MMA (Wrestling & Submissions)

As fight week unfolds, the sportsbooks have installed Hernandez as the favorite across major lines, with American odds ranging from –145 (Caesars) to –150 (BetRivers). Meanwhile, Ferreira enters as the underdog, with his line sitting between +106 (BetOnline.ag) and +122 (Caesars). The disparity in odds reflects Hernandez’s recent rebound performance and youth advantage against Ferreira’s veteran experience and grappling pedigree.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Momentum Swing
   Both men are coming off setbacks—Hernandez dropped a decision to Chase Hooper in August, while Ferreira fell to Grant Dawson in January. A victory here not only snaps those skids but could vault the winner into striking distance of a top-15 opponent.

2. Stylistic Chess Match

   • Hernandez excels in forward pressure and leg kicks, boasting a 41% significant strike accuracy and a 36% takedown success rate.
   • Ferreira counters with a well-rounded attack, combining 7 submission wins with sturdy takedown defense (58%).

3. Age vs. Athleticism
   At 40 years old, Ferreira relies on experience and craftiness, whereas the 32-year-old Hernandez brings youth, speed, and explosive power—evident in his 7 first-round finishes.

What to Watch For

• Hernandez’s Leg Kick Volume: Will he chop down Ferreira’s base and keep the fight standing?
• Ferreira’s Takedown Entries: Can he capitalize on any defensive lapses to bring the fight to the mat?
• Cardio and Pace: A fast start could favor Hernandez, but late-round grappling control might play into Ferreira’s strengths.

With both athletes hungry to reassert themselves in the crowded lightweight division, the Hernandez vs. Ferreira bout promises technical striking, takedown scraps, and the ever-present threat of a fight-finishing sequence. Don’t miss this high-octane matchup live from San Antonio on September 13.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lopes vs Silva can be found on the Lopes vs Silva event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Alexander Hernandez: The Dynamic Striker

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: MMA with a striking emphasis, known for heavy leg kicks, crisp combinations, and forward pressure.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Aug. 16, 2025 – Loss vs. Chase Hooper (Decision)
2. Mar. 15, 2025 – Win vs. Kurt Holobaugh (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Oct. 05, 2024 – Win vs. Austin Hubbard (Decision – Split)
4. Apr. 06, 2024 – Loss vs. Damon Jackson (Decision – Split)
5. Oct. 07, 2023 – Loss vs. Bill Algeo (Decision – Unanimous)
   – 2–3 in his last five outings, alternating highs and lows but showing resilience by bouncing back from setbacks.

Strengths

• Striking Output & Accuracy (41%): Hess utilizes a high volume of significant strikes, particularly leg kicks that disrupt opponents’ base.
• Takedown Defense (72%): Elite level: he stuffs nearly three-quarters of takedown attempts, forcing fighters to keep it standing.
• Finishing Instincts: 7 first-round finishes and 7 KO/TKO victories showcase his ability to end fights quickly with power and precision.
• Durability & Pace: Maintains a frenetic pace, making it difficult for opponents to mount sustained offense.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (36%): While competent, his wrestling is opportunistic rather than dominant—Ferreira may exploit lapses in his sprawl.
• Late-Round Output: Average fight time is 10:31; he’s less likely to secure finishes in championship rounds, and his volume dips after the second round.
• Decision Losses: Three of his last five have gone to the judges, indicating potential difficulty adjusting mid-fight against gritty opponents.

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Diego Ferreira: The Seasoned Grappler

Background

• Age: 40
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: MMA blend of wrestling, scrambles, and submissions; patient pace with sudden bursts of aggression.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs. Grant Dawson (Decision – Unanimous)
2. May 11, 2024 – Win vs. Mateusz Rebecki (KO/TKO, Rd 3, 4:51)
3. May 20, 2023 – Win vs. Michael Johnson (KO/TKO, Rd 2, 1:50)
4. Dec. 18, 2021 – Loss vs. Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, Rd 2, 3:26)
5. May 08, 2021 – Loss vs. Gregor Gillespie (KO/TKO, Rd 2, 4:51)
   – Also 2–3 over his last five, mixing highlight-reel finishes with setbacks against high-level foes.

Strengths

• Submission Acumen: 7 submission victories highlight his ability to capitalize in scrambles and control positional battles on the mat.
• Strike Repetoire: 41% significant strike accuracy mirrors Hernandez’s—he lands crisp counters and sneaky body kicks to slow down aggressors.
• Veteran Ring IQ: Fourteen years of professional MMA sharpen his fight management, pace control, and late-round adjustments.
• Durable Chin & Gas Tank: With an average fight time of 9:46, he’s comfortable in deep waters, unafraid to trade in scrambles or striking exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (58%): Below par against elite wrestlers—Hernandez’s 36% takedown offense could prove more effective than Ferreira’s defense suggests.
• Age‐Related Decline: At 40, speed, reaction time, and recovery may lag, especially against a younger, faster opponent.
• Strike Defense (56%): Vulnerable to high-volume strikers; sustained pressure could open him up to significant damage over three rounds.

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This clash between Hernandez’s explosive striking and takedown resistance vs. Ferreira’s grappling prowess and veteran savvy sets up a classic stylistic war in the lightweight division. Each fighter brings distinct strengths and clear vulnerabilities—expect leg kicks and combos from Hernandez, counter-wrestling and submission hunts from Ferreira—making this one of the most intriguing preliminary matchups of the night.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest update (September 8, 2025), sportsbooks have installed Alexander Hernandez as the clear favorite and Diego Ferreira as the underdog:

• Alexander Hernandez (–126 to –150)

  • Caesars: –145
  • BetOnline.ag: –126
  • BetRivers: –150

• Diego Ferreira (+106 to +122)

  • Caesars: +122
  • BetOnline.ag: +106
  • BetRivers: +120

The gap between the favorite and underdog ranges from 232 to 272 “cents” (i.e., the difference between –126 and +122 is 248). Hernandez commands respect due to his youth and recent strike-heavy résumé, while Ferreira’s plus-money line reflects his veteran savvy but advanced age.

Odds History & Line Movement

A review of the line movement over the past 48 hours highlights significant market shifts:

• Alexander Hernandez (BetOnline.ag)

  • Sep. 6: –160
  • Sep. 7 (early): –159 / –160
  • Sep. 8 (7:25 am): –142
  • Sep. 8 (7:50 am): –126

  Hernández’s odds have dropped 34 points from –160 to –126, indicating heavy betting action on him and growing confidence in his ability to control this fight.

• Diego Ferreira (BetOnline.ag)

  • Sep. 6: +140
  • Sep. 7 (early): +139 / +140
  • Sep. 8 (7:25 am): +122
  • Sep. 8 (7:50 am): +106

  Ferreira’s line has slid 34 points from +140 to +106, suggesting bettors are reluctant to back the 40-year-old veteran at a large price, even as underdogs often provide value.

No dramatic “steam” or one-sided movement favors Ferreira; rather, both lines have shifted in Hernandez’s favor, highlighting him as the public’s preferred play entering fight week.

$1,000 Payout & Winning Probability

• Betting $1,000 on Hernandez at –126

  • Payout: $1,000 wagers net $794 in profit (total return $1,794).
  • Implied Win Chance: Approximately 56%.

• Betting $1,000 on Ferreira at +122

  • Payout: $1,000 wagers net $1,220 in profit (total return $2,220).
  • Implied Win Chance: Approximately 45%.

These numbers show a classic favorite versus underdog trade-off: Hernandez offers a higher likelihood of victory, while Ferreira delivers a more lucrative return if he pulls off the upset.

Recommended Sportsbooks

• For those backing Hernandez, BetOnline.ag (–126) currently offers the shallowest negative line, reducing your risk per $100 wagered.
• For bettors chasing Ferreira’s potential payday, Caesars (+122) provides the richest return among major books.

Keep in mind that line movement may continue right up to fight time. Shopping around across multiple sportsbooks not only secures the best odds but also maximizes value whether you’re backing the sharp favorite or hunting an underdog payday.