Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell – UFC Fight Analysis & Pick

Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell Fight Breakdown

Introduction

Mark your calendars for what promises to be an electrifying lightweight showdown on September 27, 2025, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia. This bout between Australia’s rising star Tom Nolan and American knockout artist Charlie Campbell is slated as part of the main card of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes, with the preliminary action kicking off at 2:00 AM UTC on September 28 and this pivotal lightweight clash expected to hit the Octagon shortly thereafter. With Nolan installed as the -165 favorite across major sportsbooks like Caesars and BetOnline.ag, and Campbell pegged as the +140 underdog at Caesars (and roughly +125 to +140 elsewhere), bettors and fans alike have split leanings as they prepare for a high-stakes battle in the 155-pound division.

Why This Fight Matters

• Local Spotlight vs. International Contender
  At just 24 years old, hometown hopeful Tom Nolan will enjoy near-ceiling crowd support in Perth as he seeks to improve on his 9–1 professional record. His 75-inch height, 73-inch reach, and growing experience inside the UFC have made him a dark-horse favorite on foreign soil. Meanwhile, 28-year-old Charlie Campbell enters with an undefeated 9–2 slate, boasting six knockouts and a reputation for lightning-quick finishes. The clash of styles—Nolan’s methodical pressure against Campbell’s heavy hands—could produce fireworks early.

• Momentum and Redemption
  Nolan arrives off a unanimous-decision victory over Viacheslav Borshchev in February 2025, rebounding nicely from a first-round KO loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. His measured striking and technical takedown defense (67%) underpin a game plan built on patience and precision. Campbell, on the other hand, has rattled off back-to-back UFC wins—including a dominant unanimous decision over Trevor Peek and a first-round stoppage of Alex Reyes—showcasing 54% significant-strike accuracy and a knack for early finishes (three first-round stoppages).

• Betting Angle
  Oddsmakers favor Nolan’s home-field advantage and well-rounded approach, offering bettors a chance to back the Aussie at around -160 to -165 on most books. Campbell’s underdog pricing (+125 to +140) reflects his knockout upside—he owns six KO victories and a 40% takedown accuracy that could catch Nolan off balance if he opts for a wrestling-heavy strategy. Keep an eye on live-line shifts: Campbell’s odds have swung from +130 to +140 in recent days on BetOnline.ag, while Nolan’s have bounced between -155 and -170, indicating sharp-money action on both sides.

What to Watch

• Early Striking Exchanges: Campbell’s power vs. Nolan’s reach advantage.
• Takedown Attempts: Nolan’s 13% accuracy may not deter Campbell, but his 67% takedown defense will be crucial.
• Cardio and Fight IQ: Campbell averages finishes in 6:47, whereas Nolan tends to grind through 7:15 on average—will this be a quick KO or a strategic chess match?

As UFC returns to Australia for the first time since early 2024, this contest anchors the main card and carries significant lightweight implications. Whether you’re backing the hometown hero or banking on Campbell’s knockout prowess, this matchup is loaded with intrigue. Don’t miss the fireworks when Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell collide under the bright lights of the RAC Arena.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Ulberg vs Reyes can be found on the Ulberg vs Reyes event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Tom Nolan

Age: 24
Country: Australia
Fighting Style: Methodical striker with stout takedown defense and clinch work
Physical Attributes: 75-inch height, 73-inch reach, 155.5 lb walking weight

Recent Form

• Feb. 8, 2025 – win (unanimous decision) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
• Aug. 17, 2024 – win (unanimous decision) vs. Alex Reyes
• May 18, 2024 – win (TKO, R1 at 3:50) vs. Victor Martinez
• Jan. 13, 2024 – loss (TKO, R1 at 1:03) vs. Nikolas Motta

Nolan bounced back impressively from his only professional defeat to open a three-fight win streak, all inside the UFC. He’s shown improved patience, pouncing on openings late rather than overcommitting early.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

• Reach and Size: At 75 inches tall and with a 73-inch reach, Nolan can keep shorter opponents at bay with long jabs, straights and front kicks.
• Takedown Defense: A 67% takedown defense rate frustrates grapplers and forces foes to engage in striking exchanges.
• Cardio and Fight IQ: Averaging 7:15 per outing, Nolan’s measured pace and ring generalship allow him to adapt mid-fight and exploit opponents who gas out.
• Durability: Only one stoppage loss in ten outings shows a sturdy chin and strong recovery ability.

Weaknesses

• Strike Output & Accuracy: A 46% significant-strike accuracy suggests moderate precision—he can be outworked by high-volume strikers.
• Takedown Offense: At just 13%, his own takedown success rate is low, limiting ground-and-pound opportunities against elite wrestlers.
• Defensive Vulnerability: With a 46% significant-strike defense, Nolan can be hit in exchange-heavy bouts, especially early before he settles into distance management.

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Charlie Campbell

Age: 28
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker with opportunistic wrestling
Physical Attributes: 72-inch height, 72.5-inch reach, 170 lb walk-around

Recent Form

• Apr. 6, 2024 – win (unanimous decision) vs. Trevor Peek
• Sep. 16, 2023 – win (KO/TKO, R1 at 3:38) vs. Alex Reyes

Campbell burst onto the UFC scene with a first-round knockout and followed up by showcasing improved cardio and volume in a three-round decision. He remains undefeated (2–0) inside the Octagon and sits on a multi-fight win streak overall.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

• Power Striking: Six of Campbell’s nine wins have come by KO/TKO. His 54% significant-strike accuracy and 40% takedown accuracy underscore his ability to end fights quickly.
• Varied Offense: Campbell lands heavy kicks, counters and overhand rights—keeping opponents guessing.
• Takedown Defense: A 71% takedown defense rate allows him to stay upright and unleash his power.
• Finishing Instinct: Three first-round stoppages in nine wins highlight his killer instinct in the opening frame.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Concerns: Campbell’s average fight time of 6:47 hints at potential late-round fatigue if he can’t secure an early finish.
• Reach Disadvantage: At 72 inches tall with a 72.5-inch reach, he may struggle to close distance safely against taller fighters like Nolan.
• Ground Control: While his takedown accuracy is respectable, he hasn’t yet demonstrated sustained wrestling control or submission chains at UFC level.

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In this clash, Nolan’s size, defensive wrestling and patience will be tested against Campbell’s power, precision striking and finishing prowess. Both fighters bring contrasting skill sets—expect a tactical chess match with explosive moments.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Tom Nolan is firmly installed as the favorite across all major books, while Charlie Campbell sits in the underdog role. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head lines:

• Tom Nolan (Favorite)
  • Caesars: -165
  • BetMGM: -150 (best price for favorites)
  • BetRivers: -157
  • BetOnline.ag: -155
  • BetUS: -155
  • FanDuel: -162

• Charlie Campbell (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +140 (best price for underdogs)
  • BetOnline.ag: +135
  • BetUS: +130
  • FanDuel: +126
  • BetRivers: +125
  • BetMGM: +125

Who’s the underdog?
Charlie Campbell clearly occupies the underdog slot, trading anywhere from +125 to +140. The most generous payday on Campbell is at Caesars (+140), while bettors seeking the smallest risk backing Nolan can lock in -150 at BetMGM.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history for both fighters reveals some noteworthy swings:

• Tom Nolan
  • Initial line opened around -160 on Caesars (9/11)
  • Brief dip to -155 (9/15) before drifting out to -165 (9/16)
  • BetMGM shifted from -170 (9/14) to -150 (9/16)

• Charlie Campbell
  • Started near +135 on Caesars (9/11)
  • Slipped to +130 (9/15) before jumping back to +140 (9/16)
  • BetOnline.ag saw Campbell trade between +122 and +145 in a two-day span

What does this tell us?
• Sharp money on Nolan late in the week has pushed the favorite from -155 into the mid -160s on top books.
• Conversely, a flurry of underdog backers—perhaps attracted to Campbell’s six-KO résumé—popped his line from +130 back toward +140.
• The tug-of-war suggests a split market: public dollars on the hometown Aussie collide with respect for Campbell’s finishing power.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 riding:

• On Tom Nolan at -165 (Caesars)
  • Profit: $606
  • Total Payout: $1,606

• On Tom Nolan at -150 (BetMGM)
  • Profit: $667
  • Total Payout: $1,667

• On Charlie Campbell at +140 (Caesars)
  • Profit: $1,400
  • Total Payout: $2,400

Implied Chances

• Nolan’s current lines suggest roughly a 62% likelihood of victory.
• Campbell’s underdog odds point to about a 41% chance to pull off the upset.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Underdog Backers: Caesars leads the pack at +140 on Campbell, maximizing potential returns.
• For Favorite Backers: BetMGM’s -150 line on Nolan offers the softest juice, preserving more capital if you’re backing the Aussie.

Keep an eye on line movement as fight night approaches. A sudden shift—especially on live betting—can signal where the sharp money is flowing and offer last-minute opportunities to lock in favorable prices.